ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[Ivanhater]

The shift left is noticeable..Will be interesting to see if it continues..

[TwisterFanatic]

As long as this thing stays pretty weak i think we will continue to see a left shift in the models.

[hurricaneCW]

If those shear forecasts are correct, than this system could ramp up if it survives the shear. We would need to the LLC to survive in order to become something. The convection can be weak and displaced, but as long as there's a strong LLC, then it could easily redevelop once conditions become favorable. I'd say the chances of survival are around 30% right now.

[ROCK]

If those shear forecasts are correct, than this system could ramp up if it survives the shear. We would need to the LLC to survive in order to become something. The convection can be weak and displaced, but as long as there's a strong LLC, then it could easily redevelop once conditions become favorable. I'd say the chances of survival are around 30% right now.

it could or it could go the way of Chris back in 06......decapitation as the above model Ivan posted...

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final Extended...snip...

A SIGNIFICANT WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
MOVES THIS SYSTEM NEAR OR OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN ARE THE FARTHEST
WEST BRINGING IT TOWARDS FLORIDA IN 6-7 DAYS...WHILE THE 12Z
ECMWF/12Z UKMET ARE WELL TO THE RIGHT TRYING TO RECURVE THE SYSTEM
JUST EAST OF THE 70TH MERIDIAN. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
FEATURE HAS ALSO BEEN QUESTIONABLE WITHIN ANY OF ITS 00Z AND 12Z
RUNS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ITS MULTI-DAY WAVERING
FAVORS THE WESTERN ROUTE MOVING THE LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE BAHAMA BANK AND OFFSHORE THE
FLORIDA COAST. NHC TOOK THE EASTERN ROUTE AT 15Z WHICH WAS A
SIGNIFICANT BREAK FROM YESTERDAYS 16Z NHC/HPC AGREED UPON POINTS.
SEE NHCS LATEST DISCUSSIONS CONCERNING THEIR FORECAST REASONING.
BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING...THE WEAKENING TROUGH IN THE EAST IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE FULL RECURVATURE. THE COL
IN THE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN TO ITS NORTH...SO THE AGREED
UPON POINTS FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TAKE THE
SYSTEM NORTHWEST IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE CAROLINAS SOUTH
OF THE NORTHWARD MIGRATING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 33RD PARALLEL EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEE THE LATEST FORECASTS
FROM NHC CONCERNING THE FUTURE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[Ivanhater]

Lol, I must say, that snippet sounds like.."The NHC broke our deal!"

[KWT]

Think the NHC possibly made the wrong choice going east like they did, but we will see, the models broadly agree with the set-up but some are a good deal further south then others so we need to watch and see how it all evolves.

[ROCK]

Lol, I must say, that snippet sounds like.."The NHC broke our deal!"

they need to play nice in the sandbox...bad NHC...

[KWT]

If those shear forecasts are correct, than this system could ramp up if it survives the shear. We would need to the LLC to survive in order to become something. The convection can be weak and displaced, but as long as there's a strong LLC, then it could easily redevelop once conditions become favorable. I'd say the chances of survival are around 30% right now.

it could or it could go the way of Chris back in 06......decapitation as the above model Ivan posted...

Its certainly possible that could happen though the shear the models are progging are still WAY weaker then what we saw with Chris, poor old Chris got totally smashed by mid level shear, that got hit by a full blown jet streak.

[TwisterFanatic]

Could the EURO from the other day be correct when it took TD4 south of the islands and into the Gulf?

[Macrocane]

Could the EURO from the other day be correct when it took TD4 south of the islands and into the Gulf?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It was several days ago, now the Euro and the other models are showing a very very different track, it's very unlikely to get this storm into the Gulf.

[ROCK]

Could the EURO from the other day be correct when it took TD4 south of the islands and into the Gulf?

that was when it was entrenched in the ITCZ and looked way better than now...its been a few runs ago since we saw that...IMO, I doubt it...

[SeminoleWind]

Anyone think the NHC track will shift more south and west or stay relatively the same?

[Ivanhater]

Anyone think the NHC track will shift more south and west or stay relatively the same?

Always look for the TVCN model on the graphic (the silver one) they usually follow that one closely. As of now, the TVCN is slightly west of the track, so they may adjust it west slightly...

[barometerJane61]

Its been so long since the Carolinas had to deal with a hurricane.From NHC's recent statement,they could possibly be at great risk.But it is too early to say who,if anybody will be impacted

[Ivanhater]

Lol..half the 12z Euro Ensembles took this to Florida, other half agrees with the ops....

Cut and dry forecast, I think not

[brunota2003]

It hasn't been too long since the Carolinas have had to deal with a tropical system. If you think we've forgotten about Bertha, Fran, Floyd, Isabel, Alex, Charley, Ophelia and numerous tropical storms, well, we haven't.

[UpTheCreek]

I'm keepin' an eye, but it's obvious that this is a highly unpredictable storm, at least at this point in time.

[Bocadude85]

Its been so long since the Carolinas had to deal with a hurricane.From NHC's recent statement,they could possibly be at great risk.But it is too early to say who,if anybody will be impacted

They had to deal with Hurricane Ophelia in 2005...

[Ivanhater]

Easy to see the shift west in the models..also the split between the Euro ops and ensembles is significant...half the ensembles if the Euro agree with the Canadian. This is why we are seeing the split with the HPC and the NHC and a very complicated forecast.