Yeah fair enough Aric, though I think given where it is now even if it opened up it'd still probably struggle to get into the W.Caribbean given the first upper trough, though for sure there'd be more chance...
Anyway still 30kts at the moment which makes sense...now upto 12.8N, how much more northwards was it from the 12z position.
ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion
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ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL : Tropical Depression Four - DISCUSSION
Hmmm, if Colin somehow isn't able to form due to the TULL that it will be approaching, it makes you wonder if anything is going to be able to get going this year. This year seems to be about Shear and TULLS, ULLS etc.....I don't think they were expecting this. Someone mentioned earlier if Colin was in the Gulf that it would probably be strengthening. This might just be the year of the occasional Gulf or Carib storm(providing there's no heavy shear there either).
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CZ, its a bit like 2007 at the moment for sure....
BUT its nothing to do with the TUTT, its just dry air thats coming through, I still think this one has a decent chance of becoming a TS still but upper conditions aren't that good really further down the line.
BUT its nothing to do with the TUTT, its just dry air thats coming through, I still think this one has a decent chance of becoming a TS still but upper conditions aren't that good really further down the line.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL : Tropical Depression Four - DISCUSSION
From the 12Z position fix, motion has been approx .5 degrees north and 1.5 degrees west. If my math is correct that's a 6 hour motion at 292 degrees, a little above 20 knots.
Because both position fixes are estimates (and not known) the intial motion could be anywhere from 15 to 22 knots. My guess it's on the high side of that range.
Lots of stable air looking low clouds to the northeast of the depression...and looking at the large scale presentation of the envelope...it looks to me like TD4 is caught in a larger surge of easterly winds.
In fact, you can see the arch in visible satellite imagery from that surge. You can draw a curved like starting up at 30N and 45W, with a furthest west point of 20N and 50W, then curving back SE to the southern most extent of the TD.
See?
It's almost as if the depression is a secondary feature. Plus...wow look at the low clouds racing away from the center to the NW. This looks to be a drag on vorticity in the environment close to the depression.
Just because I don't remember seeing development out of such of a feature in the past doesn't mean it's not possible here, but the synoptics don't look "right" to me.
I appologize if this was mentioned elsewhere...I haven't read all of the posts.
MW
Because both position fixes are estimates (and not known) the intial motion could be anywhere from 15 to 22 knots. My guess it's on the high side of that range.
Lots of stable air looking low clouds to the northeast of the depression...and looking at the large scale presentation of the envelope...it looks to me like TD4 is caught in a larger surge of easterly winds.
In fact, you can see the arch in visible satellite imagery from that surge. You can draw a curved like starting up at 30N and 45W, with a furthest west point of 20N and 50W, then curving back SE to the southern most extent of the TD.
See?
It's almost as if the depression is a secondary feature. Plus...wow look at the low clouds racing away from the center to the NW. This looks to be a drag on vorticity in the environment close to the depression.
Just because I don't remember seeing development out of such of a feature in the past doesn't mean it's not possible here, but the synoptics don't look "right" to me.
I appologize if this was mentioned elsewhere...I haven't read all of the posts.
MW
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Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
Agreed MW, its a bit of an odd evolution for a system to come out, the CV season still isn't quite primed yet even though we have managed to get a depression out of it.
This is like a more evolved 92L at the moment!
This is like a more evolved 92L at the moment!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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ConvergenceZone
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Re:
KWT wrote:CZ, its a bit like 2007 at the moment for sure....
BUT its nothing to do with the TUTT, its just dry air thats coming through, I still think this one has a decent chance of becoming a TS still but upper conditions aren't that good really further down the line.
Hehe, perhaps you are right. Colin still has a reasonable change of hitting tropical storm status I agree...Perhaps 2010 will just be the year of tropical storms...
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FireBird
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Re: Re:
I think it's moving too fast due west and with slow development that can be bad. Especially for the Southern Islands
I've been keeping this slow development in mind in spite of model development. It would be great if this could fish. At this point, I think in the absence of development, the islands will get major rain event. and that exactly what we don;t need right now. We are water-boarded. It's been raining non-stop since 10:30 am with the current wave passing through. I've been struggling to keep the flood waters out all day. If this TD doesn't spin up and away, we're in for a hellish time down here.
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: Re:
ConvergenceZone wrote:KWT wrote:CZ, its a bit like 2007 at the moment for sure....
BUT its nothing to do with the TUTT, its just dry air thats coming through, I still think this one has a decent chance of becoming a TS still but upper conditions aren't that good really further down the line.
Hehe, perhaps you are right. Colin still has a reasonable change of hitting tropical storm status I agree...Perhaps 2010 will just be the year of tropical storms...
Remember that you said this, one month from today.
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Doesn't look quite as good as it did about 6hrs ago to be honest, just looks a bit ragged compared to the nice ball of convection we had earlier.
Dmax may help to fire up convection stronger again.
Dmax may help to fire up convection stronger again.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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HURAKAN
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Re:
rreedbug3 wrote:Woah. Looking like a Tropical Storm. The Big TS. Can you say U p g r a d e ??? Definite Yes. Time to pull that trigger.
Unless convection intensifies, I don't think they will upgrade it. Maybe tomorrow morning after D-max
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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL : Tropical Depression Four - DISCUSSION
There have been a lot of "needless" posts today. No, the NHC does not need to "pull the trigger".
Members come here to get quality information about a system and to learn, no one needs to scroll through useless comments that add nothing to the dialogue. Think before you post.
Members come here to get quality information about a system and to learn, no one needs to scroll through useless comments that add nothing to the dialogue. Think before you post.
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Michael
Re: ATL : Tropical Depression Four - DISCUSSION
Would have been better off staying in the ITCZ...without that energy, its really become weak on its own. SAL to the north, dry air and its forward motion are against it also....next up a nice big TUTT for dinner tomorrow... 
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It does not look too bad, but given it was at 30kts earilier today I don't think it looks any better since then, certainly not to upgrade anyway.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL : Tropical Depression Four - DISCUSSION
ROCK wrote:Would have been better off staying in the ITCZ...without that energy, its really become weak on its own. SAL to the north, dry air and its forward motion are against it also....next up a nice big TUTT for dinner tomorrow...
I really think the test in the models will be in the short term...if this hits the NE Islands or skims them, the models overestimated the weakness (or the storms was weaker) in the short term.
Still looks mostly west so far...
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Michael
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meebo
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