Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 92L)

[Wx_Warrior]

12z gfs and 18z are worlds apart, that's for sure!

Taking with a grain of salt.

[KWT]

18z has the trough even stronger, I'd have thought the GFS is overdoing the trough on this run to be honest, but we will see, if it does lift out enough in the next 2 days we could have a player, otherwise we may just get a very brief TS before it smashes into CA.

[tailgater]

It's about time someone started a thread on this area, the 850mb vorticity has pretty high for the last 24hrs. and as someone said the lower level clouds are showing a good bit of rotation. It won't develop anytime soon because of SA but once it clears land in the central Caribbean it definitely does need to watched. IMHO.

[Wx_Warrior]

How many strong troughs on tap for August?

[PTrackerLA]

Easy there 18z GFS! Although it's just one model run, with it showing a landfalling hurricane only a week out it catches my attention. We'll have to watch this area for sure now.

[KWT]

If I had a punt to make with this one in the early days, it'd probably be something like the ECM which for the last couple of runs but a touch to the north, maybe the Yucatan region.

This will be very interesting indeed if the upper trough does decide to dig enough, but the 18z looks a little too deep to be honest.

At least the Nogaps is similar as well....

[Macrocane]

The GFS is not the only model hinting at development in the area

Nogaps 12z 144 hours

Canadian 12z 108 hours

[KWT]

Convection is pretty potent right now and alot of convection about. SA is an issue for now though and looking at the models maybe another 48hrs before it lifts out a little bit, how much though depends on how much strengthening occurs and how deep the trough gets.

[Ivanhater]

It is the 18z and first run to show this...but it is within the week so that is concerning....

[srainhoutx]

[KWT]

Indeed Ivanhater, what I will say though is the models have been toying with development of some sorts, its just most models are a good deal further south. I'm in two minds about this, I can't imagine a system this far south with the upper trough still a few days away from lifting out quickly enough to get away from CA, but equally thats an impressive upper trough for the time of year and it could certainly impart enough weakness to at least get it far enough away from SA to have a fighting chance, esp in the W.Caribbean.

[somethingfunny]

Given the heat wave gripping everyone from Texas to Georgia right now with no end in sight I'm having a difficult time believing that the ridge will be developing a large weakness to draw a system northwards anytime soon.

[lonelymike]

Given the heat wave gripping everyone from Texas to Georgia right now with no end in sight I'm having a difficult time believing that the ridge will be developing a large weakness to draw a system northwards anytime soon.

Suppose to be 100 degrees here next Sunday in South Alabama.......uh no

[KWT]

LOoking at the synoptics, any heatwave is on its way out at least further north:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP096.gif

Thats the 12z ECM, note this systems location, very good agreement with the CMC.

[chzzdekr81]

I'm more worried about this one than future Tropical Storm Colin.

[HURAKAN]

164
ABNT20 KNHC 022340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR...LOCATED ABOUT 1270 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[KWT]

Looks reasonable, I'd say 10% is a good chance percentage. This is quite an interesting one because if it can develop over the next 72hrs then it'll probably be strong enough to feel the weakness and lift out a little as the big upper trough digs down, but if it remains a weak system it'll probably only feel a small tug...and whether thats enough I'm not sure, the models suggest maybe just enough for a quick TD.

So quite an interesting possible 48hrs to watch with this one....good job its not at 12-13N right now!

[chzzdekr81]

Mentioned in the TWO.

[rockyman]

who stole the yellow circle?

Edit: The criminals have been apprehended:

[chzzdekr81]