Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. We continue to watch what is now TS Colin.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST TUE AUG 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A LOW NEAR 24 NORTH 63.5 WEST WILL
RECEDE NORTH NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM COLIN MOVES JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER CUBA
DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE
LOCAL AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...AN AREA OF WEAKNESS NORTH OF THE AREA AND
EXTENDING TO JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN BAHAMAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE FROM TROPICAL STORM COLIN MOVES INTO THE
AREA IT FORMERLY OCCUPIED. AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 50 WEST ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE AT MID
LEVELS FOR THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER FOUR WAS DECLARED
TROPICAL STORM COLIN AT 5 AM AST THIS MORNING AND WAS LOCATED AT
14.0 NORTH AND 47.2 WEST. IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST NORTHWEST
AND OVER 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA NEXT TUESDAY...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BANDS OF SHOWERS WERE SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE THIS WEEK
ARRIVES IN THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS BETTER
MOISTURE REACHES THE AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...EVEN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
FLOW FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST WHERE VERY GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER
CAN BE FOUND. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT FORMED TROPICAL ST0RM COLIN
HAS MOVED MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN THE STORM ITSELF BETWEEN 18 AND
26 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND WAS MEASURED AT 24 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOULD THIS WAVE CONTINUE AT ITS CURRENT SPEED AND
DIRECTION IT WOULD ARRIVE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THOSE AREAS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THIS FAR SOUTH AHEAD OF COLIN AND WOULD MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST...THEN MUCH BETTER MOISTURE AND SOME
INSTABILITY WOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO ALL OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY. THE TAIL OF COLIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRUSH BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
GENERAL FOCUS OF THE RAIN MAY SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
PUERTO RICO.

ALL OF THE MODELS CURVE COLIN NORTHWARD...WHICH WOULD PLACE COLIN
DUE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AT 24.5 NORTH BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
COLIN HAS MOVED TOWARD 283 DEGREES AT 25 KTS DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY IT IS FORECAST TO CURVE SO MUCH GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL HIGH...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE SPEED AT WHICH IT IS MOVING. AND IF IT DID NOT CHANGE COURSE
IT WOULD CROSS INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR GUADELOUPE. IT MAY BE
SPECULATED THAT FOR THIS REASON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS
STATED THAT INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF COLIN. REGARDLESS OF ACTUAL TRACK AT THIS
POINT MOISTURE FROM COLIN BEING PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL
KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
SOME CLEARING ON SATURDAY. BETTER SHOWERS RETURN ON TUESDAY AS AN
AREA OF MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS EXTENDING AT LEAST UP THROUGH 700
MB ENTERS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE REMNANTS OF A
TROPICAL WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE EAST WILL INCREASE THE
CLOUDINESS AND THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TKPK...TNCM...TIST AND
TISX...REACHING THE PR TAF SITES BY 03/12Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE ENE AT 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 7 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...BUT WITH COLIN PASSING FAR TO THE NORTHEAST HAVE
MAINTAINED THE FORECAST BELOW 7 FEET FOR ALL WATERS.

[knotimpaired]

Wow,that is very bad news from there Firebird and that was only a tropical wave, not a Tropical Cyclone. Hopefully all drys out there to then recover.

I wholehearted agree with Luis.

By the way, we have getting rain here in Vieques.

[cycloneye]

From Crownweather:

http://www.crownweather.com/

Tropical Storm Colin:
Here is the 5 am EDT/4 am CDT Information On Tropical Storm Colin:
Location: 14.0 North Latitude, 47.2 West Longitude.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph.
Movement: West-Northwest or 285 Degrees at a forward speed of 23 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 millibars or 29.71 inches.

TD #4 has become better organized overnight and satellite imagery is showing curved bands of convection wrapping about halfway around the storm on its western side. Intensity estimates based on satellite imagery indicates that this system now has 40 mph winds; so it has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Colin by the National Hurricane Center. Some strengthening is likely today through Wednesday as wind shear values will generally range from 7 to 14 knots. After Wednesday, westerly wind shear is forecast to increase over the storm thanks to an upper level low pressure system over the southwest Atlantic. One caveat to this intensity forecast is that if Colin tracks further south than what the guidance package is forecast (which is quite possible), not as much shear will impact the storm and greater strengthening would be possible. For now, I’m following the NHC intensity forecast and cap the storm off at 60 mph by Wednesday.

Colin is currently tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 23 mph. Colin is currently being steered by a ridge of high pressure to its north and an easterly tropical jet. Colin is forecast to continue tracking slightly north of due west at a forward speed of 20+ mph today into tonight. By Wednesday, the storm should slow down some in forward speed as it starts to feel a weakness in the high pressure ridge. The track model guidance is in pretty good agreement with the forecast track from today through Wednesday, however, after Wednesday, the track guidance continues to diverge on a forecast track. The GFS model and the European model has shifted westward overnight in its forecast track with the Euro model forecasting a track across the extreme northern Leeward Islands by late Wednesday and then a track to the east of the Bahamas on Friday into Saturday with a close brush with the outer banks of North Carolina on Monday. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to forecast a track well out into the Atlantic and imply a possible threat to Bermuda in about five days. The Canadian model is even further west and forecasts a track that would impact much of the Leeward Islands Wednesday night into Thursday morning, Puerto Rico during the day Thursday, much of the Bahamas from Friday through Saturday and ultimately a track that keeps it just barely offshore of the coast of eastern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina during Sunday and Monday.

All interests in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should continue to closely monitor the progress of this storm. I will continue to monitor things closely and keep you all updated.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Storm Colin forms
Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 3, 2010 4:36 am ET
Tropical Depression 4 developed Monday morning in the Central Atlantic. As of this morning, the depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Colin.

As of 5 a.m. Eastern Time Tuesday, Colin was located about 945 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, with winds near 40 miles per hour. Colin was moving to the west-northwest near 23 miles per hour. Colin is forecast to slowly strengthen through Wednesday before leveling off as a mid-range tropical storm. The system is expected to pass just to the north of the Leeward Islands (the northern Lesser Antilles) Wednesday and Thursday.

[Gustywind]

LATEST

[abajan]

Hello my Carib friends, I know we are all keeping a close eye on TD4 especially as development is slow and it continues to track more west than models had estimated, and I'm glad to see that folks are taking advance preparations.
Just an update from down south - the wave that passed overhead today was devastating to the majority of the country. It has been described on the news as "one of the worst floods in recent history". Flood water heights from 4-10 feet in many districts. Tens of thousands of persons have been directly affected, and the early estimate of losses in the hundreds of thousands. At present, all emergency responders have been activated. The only thing that hasn;t been done is to call a state of emergency.
Thing is - I am so upset with my local Met office for not sufficiently warning the public, or alerting the relevant authorities so they could mobilize in advance. While the flooding may have been the same, I think to be forewarned is to be forearmed. In the absence of this, people did not secure their belongings, and so there goes property, pets, and livestock - some of which could have been prevented.
I shudder to think of what will happen if we get a full force hurricane, and am equally in despair of a TS.

I heard about this on our local news this morning. It stated, in part, that Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar had toured the country in a helicopter to assess the damage. The whole situation sounds very serious indeed. Please keep us posted.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 030831
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

...DEPRESSION FOUR BECOMES THE THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2010
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 47.2W
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF COLIN.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF COLIN WILL PASS WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031142
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 945 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT
03/0900 UTC. TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 47.2W
OR ABOUT 820 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AT 03/0900 UTC MOVING
W-NW AT 20 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE THE
LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED
CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 46W-51W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT WAS NW OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM COLIN HAS BEEN ABSORBED.

$$
PAW

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 031434
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

...COLIN MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 49.5W
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ILSNADS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF COLIN.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF COLIN SHOULD PASS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 031438
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

COLIN HAS A VERY RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING SEEN EARLIER HAS WEAKENED...LEAVING A SMALL CONVECTIVE MASS
NEAR THE CENTER AND A SECOND CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE NORTH.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM
SAB...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IT IS HARD TO FIND WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW
CLOUD MOTIONS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...AND THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER COLIN STILL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION.

THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION
MAY BE EVEN FASTER. COLIN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW/
MID-LEVEL BERMUDA HIGH...AND IN 48-72 HR SHOULD BE APPROACHING A
WEAKNESS OR BREAK IN THE HIGH CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD INITIALLY STEER COLIN RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AFTER 48 HR. THE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACKS
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST AN
EAST OF NORTH MOTION ON THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BY
120 HR...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFDN ARE ON THE LEFT EDGE WITH NO
NORTHWARD TURN BEFORE 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED
60-90 N MI TO THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND LIES TO THE
LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

CURRENTLY...COLIN IS EXPERIENCING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR LIKELY
CAUSED BY THE LOWER PART OF THE STORM OUTRUNNING THE UPPER PART.
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR DUE TO THE RAPID
MOTION. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CAUSED BY THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...AND THE ONLY INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAT
CURRENTLY CALLS FOR COLIN TO BECOME A HURRICANE IS CLIMATOLOGY/
PERSISTENCE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
WITH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT COLIN COULD DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN WAVE
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ITS RAPID MOTION AND WESTERLY SHEAR.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF COLIN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 14.2N 49.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 15.0N 52.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 16.5N 56.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 18.3N 60.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 20.2N 63.7W 45 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 23.0N 67.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 26.5N 69.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 29.0N 70.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

For those who have boats,a small craft advisory will be in effect from Wednesday evening .

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
348 PM AST TUE AUG 3 2010

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS

AMZ710-040830-
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
348 PM AST TUE AUG 3 2010

...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 21 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.WEDNESDAY...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 12 TO 17 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 14 TO 19 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 7 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 14 TO 19 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 7 FEET.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 17 TO 22 KNOTS. SEAS 6 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...EAST WINDS 11 TO 16 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET. SCATTERED
SHOWERS...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
.SUNDAY...EAST WINDS 12 TO 17 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. ISOLATED
SHOWERS...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory

WTNT44 KNHC 032043
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

THE CENTER OF COLIN PASSED NEAR OR OVER THE WOODS HOLE NTAS BUOY
ABOUT 15Z...WHICH REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB AND A
SMALL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. HOWEVER...NEITHER THAT BUOY NOR THE
NEARBY NOAA BUOY 41040 REPORTED WINDS SUPPORTING A CLOSED
CIRCULATION...AND WESTERLY WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY APPARENT IN LOW
CLOUD MOTIONS SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED. BASED ON THIS...COLIN HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER A SMALL
AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER.

IN THE SHORT TERM...REGENERATION APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE REMNANTS OF
COLIN ENCOUNTER WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CAUSED BY THE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...NONE
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE REMNANTS OF COLIN TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THEY FORECAST THAT THE SYSTEM
COULD REACH A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES BY DAY 5. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE REMNANTS OF COLIN TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE
DURING THE NEXT 12 HR AND CONTINUE AS A 30 KT REMNANT LOW THROUGH
96 HR. AFTER THAT...THE DISTURBANCE COULD REGENERATE INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS SHOWN IN THE 120-HR FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN EXTREMELY RAPID 285/30. ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE REMNANTS OF COLIN SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR IN DIRECTION TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS MUCH FASTER. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THEIR 96-120 HR FORECASTS WESTWARD...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DO LIKEWISE.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF COLIN.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 15.8N 53.8W 35 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 57.2W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 04/1800Z 18.4N 60.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 63.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 21.7N 66.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z 25.0N 70.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 07/1800Z 28.0N 72.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 08/1800Z 30.0N 73.5W 30 KT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
448 PM AST TUE AUG 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TOMORROW. WHILE
THE REMNANTS OF THE CENTER OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS
EXPECTED TO PASS APPROXIMATELY 150 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY MORNING...A MOIST SOUTHERLY TROPICAL FLOW
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A "DRIER" SLOT OF AIR EXPECTED TO ADVECT ACROSS
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY.
EVEN SO...EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO BY EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW...HOWEVER...EXPECT A DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO FEED TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF COLIN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
04/13Z...WITH SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TAF
SITE TOMORROW...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR...AND VERY BRIEF IFR
CONDS...POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 05/00Z IN A LLVL EASTERLY WIND
FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KTS.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 032042
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

...RAPIDLY MOVING COLIN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
AREA....


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 53.8W
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF COLIN.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8
WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 35
MPH...56 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE REMNANTS OF COLIN ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.



$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM COLIN WHICH HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE REMNANTS
OF COLIN WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE REGENERATION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1047 PM AST TUE AUG 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND THE EAST HALF OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS BANDS OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN APPROACHES THE ISLANDS.
INHERITED FORECAST COVERS THE SITUATION WELL. NO CHANGES WERE
MADE. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...REMNANT OF
TROPICAL STORM COLIN...WILL TRACK RAPIDLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD
OVERNIGHT... INCREASING THE CLOUDINESS AND THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION EARLY IN THE MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TKPK...TNCM...TIST AND
TISX AFTER 04/08Z REACHING THE PR TAF SITES BY 03/12Z. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY FROM THE ENE AT 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
SHRA/TSRA.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Lets prepare for some squally weather as what is left of Colin moves wnw.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
607 AM AST WED AUG 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM
COLIN...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE REMNANT OD TROPICAL STORM COLIN WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWED AN
AREA OF INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW...APPROACHING THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF COLIN ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. GFS COMPUTER MODEL SHOWS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
DUE TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...NAM12
MODEL IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE...MAINTAINING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY. DUE TO THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THIS
SYSTEM...IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW MUCH EFFECTS WE WILL GET
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LATEST MIMIC TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS
INDICATE PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE 2.0 INCHES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OTHER IMPORTANT
FACTOR WILL BE THE WIND DIRECTION. THE NAM12 HAVE WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE REMNANT OF COLIN MOVE
NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THE
NAM12 IS SHOWING A STRONGER TROUGH THAN THE GFS...WHICH WILL
INDUCE A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS
SCENARIO IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE NAM12 MODEL TENDS TO MOVE THE
REMNANT OF COLIN SLOWER THAN THE GFS...KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA ON A
MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR MORE TIME. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF PUERTO
RICO THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY..AS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...COMBINE
WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER EACH AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTHEAST...IN THE LONG TERM..NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS
ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES WILL BEGIN THE DAY VFR. MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING IN TKPK AND
TNCM ARND 04/15Z AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN MOVE INTO
THE AREA. CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AT TIST AND TISX ARND
04/20Z AND AFT 05/00Z AT TJSJ. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS 04/16Z IN INTERIOR PR AND AT TJMZ AFT 05/17Z.
LLVL WINDS WILL BE NE-ENE BUT MAY SWITCH DRAMATICALLY AFT 05/02Z IN
TJSJ AND 04/20Z IN TNCM AND TKPK.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 77 91 79 / 70 50 60 40
STT 89 79 90 81 / 70 60 50 50