ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 031102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT
03/0900 UTC. TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 47.2W
OR ABOUT 820 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AT 03/0900 UTC MOVING
W-NW AT 20 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE THE
LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED
CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 46W-51W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT WAS NW OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM COLIN HAS BEEN ABSORBED.

$$
PAW

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 04, 2010080312, , BEST, 0, 140N, 485W, 35, 1006, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Stays at 35kts.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hey cyclone, do you have to log in to view that web page?

[KWT]

Yeah stays at 35kts but I'll be interested in a few hours to see what the discussion says and whether they too are having troubles finding the LLC as well.

Given its still at 14N...maybe this one is going to have to be watched very closely in the Islands afterall....

[cycloneye]

Hey cyclone, do you have to log in to view that web page?

There you go. ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Hurricane Andrew]

Thanks cyclone.

[Frank2]

KWT,

Yesterday's TCD mentioned the fact that the system might actually become an open wave:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

looks like it's trying become that this morning...

[Gustywind]

TS COLIN

[Frank2]

That METEOFRANCE photo is so over exposed that it makes everything look about 20x more potent than it really is...

[KWT]

It sure does look that way Frank, I'm sure if recon went in there they wouldn't find a LLC...

Still needs close watching because whilst this may well go poof in the next 24-36hrs, it does look like its going to come fairly close to the Ne Caribbean and if it stays weak it may well end up being a real threat still to the east coast, say if it goes 2-3 degrees further south at 72-96hrs then that really could make the difference, take a look at the CMC for an example of that.

[jlauderdal]

That METEOFRANCE photo is so over exposed that it makes everything look about 20x more potent than it really is...

those french just cant get it right.. , seriously if you showed that shot too most people they would think there are two hurricanes cooking

[KWT]

Convection still holding near any weak circulation but there is new convection develop to the north of the system, probably just the first signs of trough interaction.

[Gustywind]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Last Updated: 12:16 GMT le 03 août 2010 — Last Comment: 13:10 GMT le 03 août 2010
Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for the Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities


Posted by: JeffMasters, 12:16 GMT le 03 août 2010

Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think this is gonna surprise us.

It will either

1)Dwindle away over the next 1-2 Days. Maybe 3.
2) Remain week for 48-72 Hours, then, Bomb out.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing any banding or signs of increasing organization - just the opposite. All I see are outflow boundaries racing west and WNW. Still cannot find any evidence of an LLC as it approaches that ship/buoy to its west.

[HurrMark]

I'm not seeing any banding or signs of increasing organization - just the opposite. All I see are outflow boundaries racing west and WNW. Still cannot find any evidence of an LLC as it approaches that ship/buoy to its west.

Yeah, there does not appear to be much in the way of an LLC based on satellite representation. Its small size and quick motion make me think that it may not do too much intensification. I am a bit surprised they upgraded, but I guess they had enough data to do so...

[KWT]

The NHC will probably be seriously thinking of pulling the plug on this one, but we will see...regardless unless it goes totally poof we should see recon fly into it tomorrow and that will give us a good indication as to the state of the system.

[hurricaneCW]

This is the kind of storm that sneaks up on you when you don't realize it. Who knows, it could pull an Andrew and bomb out near the Bahamas once it clears the shear. I'm not taking my eyes off of this one. At least there's more convection than yesterday.

[KWT]

Oh for sure it does need watching even if the NHC pulled the plug, we'd be watching a sharp invested wave in this location and possible track, esp if it were a little further west.

[ncweatherwizard]

Just got to my computer this morning. Still waiting to see solid evidence of a TC. In five minutes though, this is my understanding: We upgraded based on simply satellite derived intensity estimates on a system that perhaps looks worse than it did yesterday? Huh. My bet is we'll find something of a poorly organized LLC tomorrow if aircraft flies in.