ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[invest man]

If this does open back up to a wave or invest, where would the remains go? IMO it might would follow the cmc track towards the Bahamas, however it appears that the NHC is following the track guidance of the gfdl & hwrf models which to me shows a top end ts or cat1 as it makes its turn poleward. Does anyone else see this the way I do or am I totally off base here because the NHC must believe that the storm will stay organized enough to at least maintain itself ! Please feel free to correct me, IM

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL weather site:
20100803.1315.COLIN.35kts-1006mb-140N-485W. Same estimation than 12z Best Track AL, 04, 2010080312, , BEST, 0, 140N, 485W, 35, 1006, TS
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Gustywind]

[HURAKAN]

Latest from NRL weather site:
20100803.1315.COLIN.35kts-1006mb-140N-485W. Same estimation than 12z Best Track AL, 04, 2010080312, , BEST, 0, 140N, 485W, 35, 1006, TS
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

It's the Best Track, the NRL doesn't do their own estimates!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Gustywind]

Latest

[MGC]

Kinda surprised by the upgrade this morning considering how the cyclone look on satelitte....I'd have kept it at depression status pending recon. Still thinking Colin will go futher west due to its shallow structure plus it is imbedded in a fairly strong nearly west flow.......MGC

[Cryomaniac]

To be honest, based on that Meteo France image, the blob near SA looks better than Colin.

[wxman57]

Pressure rising and no wind shift at the buoy it's approaching:

[Cryomaniac]

Wxman, do you think there's a possibility that the NHC will say that Colin was never a TS in their post-season analysis?

[wxman57]

Wxman, do you think there's a possibility that the NHC will say that Colin was never a TS in their post-season analysis?

That might be a first. Probably not. And it's still not completely dead yet.

This just demonstrates how difficult it is to judge structure and intensity on such a system at night with IR imagery alone.

[HURAKAN]

936
NOUS42 KNHC 031430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 03 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-065

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM COLIN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 05/0000, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0204A COLIN
C. 04/2230Z
D. 18.3N 60.4W
E. 04/2230Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 05/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[Frank2]

This just demonstrates how difficult it is to judge structure and intensity on such a system at night with IR imagery alone.

Yes, and in hindsight it'd have been better to wait for daylight - no doubt they would have held off on the upgrade, though the maritime user is also taken into account and the upgrade at night is also for their sake (nothing worse than a ship encountering a rapidly intensifying tropical storm when it was still being classified as a depression)...

[Cryomaniac]

Wxman, do you think there's a possibility that the NHC will say that Colin was never a TS in their post-season analysis?

That might be a first. Probably not.

I think I read somewhere that it's happened, but I'm not sure where.

[thetruesms]

Yuck, this thing seems to be looking more sickly by the hour. Just watching the banding fall to something bandish, and now just a little blob, and picking out any LLC continues to be an exercise in difficulty.

[StormClouds63]

To be honest, based on that Meteo France image, the blob near SA looks better than Colin.

I think that's the one headed for the western Caribbean and, possibly, the GOM. That's another story ... back to Colin.

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[x-y-no]

Here's the link to the data buoy wxman57 is referencing:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

It's located at 14.477 N 53.008 W, so we should be seeing a very close pass of the hypothetical LLC this evening. If it follows the NHC forecast track, the center should be passing just a little bit over half a degree to the north at approx. 9pm EDT.

[JonathanBelles]

The new NHC track is quite close to my own. I think that the shear (self-induced and upper-level) is becoming the main story, and combined with the dry air could limit any growth within Colin.

[hurricaneCW]

I wonder what kind of environment will exist past the wall of shear. Even if Colin degenerates to a wave, it could still rapidly reorganize in a better environment. Storms have done that countless times. The shear will also allow it to move further west, potentially targeting the east coast.