ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[KWT]

CMC maybe a left outlier but thus far it seems to me like its doing better then some of the other models like the Hurricane Models/UKMO...at the moment of course.

[Gladstone]

Thank you cycloneye for regularly posting the BAM models. I like to compare previous vs. current data/models/etc. to keep up with what the TRENDS are doing.

Here are some calculations on the BAMS expected center locations; yesterday vs. today.

24hrs ago: center crosses 14N @ 45.2W
Current: center crosses 14N @ 48.5W

24hrs ago: center crosses 15N @ 48.1W
Current: center crosses 15N @ 49.8W

24hrs ago: center crosses 16N @ 50.4W
Current: center crosses 16N @ 53.5W

The longer our storm keeps outrunning the models westwards, of course the greater chance an East Coast hit. This is starting to get fascinating eh?

[LowndesCoFire]

CMC maybe a left outlier but thus far it seems to me like its doing better then some of the other models like the Hurricane Models/UKMO...at the moment of course.

Speaking of the CMC...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... ml#picture
Slide on over to the 144hr mark and take a peek at SFL.

[Gladstone]

CMC maybe a left outlier but thus far it seems to me like its doing better then some of the other models like the Hurricane Models/UKMO...at the moment of course.

Speaking of the CMC...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... ml#picture
Slide on over to the 144hr mark and take a peek at SFL.

Look at your 180 GFS too...and note another hurricane heading towards the Bahamas.

[ericinmia]

CMC maybe a left outlier but thus far it seems to me like its doing better then some of the other models like the Hurricane Models/UKMO...at the moment of course.

Speaking of the CMC...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... ml#picture
Slide on over to the 144hr mark and take a peek at SFL.

If the CMC was a prophet, the south florida area would be a wasteland. I can't count the number of times it has launched a cat4-5 into south florida in the past 5+ years. Makes me wonder if them canadians have something against us? lol

[StarmanHDB]

If the CMC was a prophet, the South Florida area would be a wasteland. I can't count the number of times it has launched a cat4-5 into South Florida in the past 5+ years. Makes me wonder if them Canadians have something against us? lol

I think they're a little miffed that the value of their winter condos has decreased markedly over the past few years! They have lost a ton of money for their owners, no one want to buy them, so let's have a major hurricane blow them all down! Insurance is great, eh?!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

[HouTXmetro]

That High looks to be large and in charge..Bridged with the High centered over the NW Gulf?

[Weatherfreak000]

12Z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

FINALLY, it appears the GFS got a nice read on Colin this run in the short-term....excited to see what they expect in track.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

66 hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

[HURAKAN]

96 hours ... binary system in central Atlantic ... lol

[KFDM Meteorologist]

GFS was a joke yesterday..showing nothing in the Carribean today and yesterday had a hurricane moving into a ridge.

[Weatherfreak000]

It also appears to have dropped our Caribbean interest today.

[HURAKAN]

It also appears to have dropped our Caribbean interest today.

Not really

[Weatherfreak000]

It also appears to have dropped our Caribbean interest today.

Not really

Oh my mistake, it's slamming it into Central America inexplicably like the last area.


Boy is THAT a stark difference between that and an imminent hurricane

[ronjon]

Carolina Impact?

[JonathanBelles]

Interesting GFS this noon. Seems like it goes through the Leewards, then gets stuck in the ridge north and east of the Bahamas. It seems to get close to the Carolina coastline, but then turns around and moves SW towards Georgia when the ridge gets stronger.

[ROCK]

that is of course if there is anything left of Colin by that time.....garbage....

[clfenwi]

12Z NOGAPS... General idea (not specific track) reminds me of Irene of 2005.




(edited to add link)

[Blown Away]

Interesting GFS this noon. Seems like it goes through the Leewards, then gets stuck in the ridge north and east of the Bahamas. It seems to get close to the Carolina coastline, but then turns around and moves SW towards Georgia when the ridge gets stronger.

Please post the link to that run.