ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

The Atlantic Basin has the mange this year.

were still practically in preseason, everything picks up around august 15. And besides we started the season with a category 2 hurricane, that likely wouldve been more had it not made landfall. Sorry we havent had enough landfalling majors yet...

Be that as it may, the guy made a valid point. It doesn't really seem to matter where you are right now in the ATL, the entire basin is just shockingly unfavorable. Instead of imagining magically the situation is going to change, you also have to consider why it wouldnt.


TUTTs are everywhere. SAL is dominant. I would definitely agree this season has been unfolding quite strangely. Consider this:

-If your a TW off Africa you eat SAL.
-If your riding the Caribbean you hit dry air, TUTT's or smash into Central America.
-If you manage to make it past the C. America, you hook into the Yucatan, insuring you stay weak regardless of where you go.
-If your in the Open Atlantic, you eat SAL and TUTTs.
-If your in the GOM, you decouple and dis-integrate. In the middle of the GOM no less.



I don't have any answer for that. These things don't happen in Hyperactive seasons, IMO.

[Gladstone]

http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/165/colin.jpg

I see what appears to be a LLC inside that circle screaming towards the WNW. Am I seeing correctly Colin way ahead of the NHC forecast points?

I believe you'd find the center due southeast of the hot tower (sliced by the vertical line.)


Edited by CM to delete img tags in a quoted post. Please try to remember to do this. Thanks!

[hurricaneCW]

If it's September 1st with nothing on the horizon and no storms after Colin, then the season will probably bust big time but until then save the premature season bust posts in the other forum.

[SoupBone]

The Atlantic Basin has the mange this year.

were still practically in preseason, everything picks up around august 15. And besides we started the season with a category 2 hurricane, that likely wouldve been more had it not made landfall. Sorry we havent had enough landfalling majors yet...

Be that as it may, the guy made a valid point. It doesn't really seem to matter where you are right now in the ATL, the entire basin is just shockingly unfavorable. Instead of imagining magically the situation is going to change, you also have to consider why it wouldnt.


TUTTs are everywhere. SAL is dominant. I would definitely agree this season has been unfolding quite strangely. Consider this:

-If your a TW off Africa you eat SAL.
-If your riding the Caribbean you hit dry air, TUTT's or smash into Central America.
-If you manage to make it past the C. America, you hook into the Yucatan, insuring you stay weak regardless of where you go.
-If your in the Open Atlantic, you eat SAL and TUTTs.
-If your in the GOM, you decouple and dis-integrate. In the middle of the GOM no less.



I don't have any answer for that. These things don't happen in Hyperactive seasons, IMO.

It certainly has been a strange season so far. Also Cheezyguy while the season may not ramp up until Aug. 15th it did start June 1st so that argument doesn't really hold water (so to speak).

[ROCK]

just looked at the Goes 1KM sped it up.....the circle on the above is the LLC. and its hauling NW out running the convection.....

[HurrMark]

The Atlantic Basin has the mange this year.

were still practically in preseason, everything picks up around august 15. And besides we started the season with a category 2 hurricane, that likely wouldve been more had it not made landfall. Sorry we havent had enough landfalling majors yet...

Be that as it may, the guy made a valid point. It doesn't really seem to matter where you are right now in the ATL, the entire basin is just shockingly unfavorable. Instead of imagining magically the situation is going to change, you also have to consider why it wouldnt.


TUTTs are everywhere. SAL is dominant. I would definitely agree this season has been unfolding quite strangely. Consider this:

-If your a TW off Africa you eat SAL.
-If your riding the Caribbean you hit dry air, TUTT's or smash into Central America.
-If you manage to make it past the C. America, you hook into the Yucatan, insuring you stay weak regardless of where you go.
-If your in the Open Atlantic, you eat SAL and TUTTs.
-If your in the GOM, you decouple and dis-integrate. In the middle of the GOM no less.



I don't have any answer for that. These things don't happen in Hyperactive seasons, IMO.

This isn't that unusual...even in 2005, there were periods of unfavorability throughout most of the Atlantic. I think many people was wrapped up into seeing a 23-13-7 type of year...those are many standard deviations from the mean. I still think we can probably see 15-16 storms...which can easily be hyperactive in nature.

That said, the Atlantic is pretty dead for the most part...the favorable MJO has been stuck in the Indian Ocean for a very long time, and there is no sign of it budging...but once it's on the move, then we should see more activity. Patience, grasshopper...

[CrazyC83]

I think Colin (or the existing wave) might just be eating the dry air in the region to set up a potential Danielle.

[Gladstone]

The Atlantic Basin has the mange this year.

were still practically in preseason, everything picks up around august 15. And besides we started the season with a category 2 hurricane, that likely wouldve been more had it not made landfall. Sorry we havent had enough landfalling majors yet...

Be that as it may, the guy made a valid point. It doesn't really seem to matter where you are right now in the ATL, the entire basin is just shockingly unfavorable. Instead of imagining magically the situation is going to change, you also have to consider why it wouldnt.


TUTTs are everywhere. SAL is dominant. I would definitely agree this season has been unfolding quite strangely. Consider this:

-If your a TW off Africa you eat SAL.
-If your riding the Caribbean you hit dry air, TUTT's or smash into Central America.
-If you manage to make it past the C. America, you hook into the Yucatan, insuring you stay weak regardless of where you go.
-If your in the Open Atlantic, you eat SAL and TUTTs.
-If your in the GOM, you decouple and dis-integrate. In the middle of the GOM no less.



I don't have any answer for that. These things don't happen in Hyperactive seasons, IMO.

I meant it as a joke of course but there are two things wrong this year:

1.) Considering the number of storms forecast for the season; saying "well, it's only the pre-season" is no excuse. You need pre-season storms to reach high totals.

2.) We've already had several disturbances that've had perfect or near-perfect environments handed to them on a silver platter, yet they ignored the gifts and withered away.

Yes we have a long ways to go - but we can't keep saying that forever too.

[Sanibel]

Andrew looked like a little wisp of nothing at one point. That isn't going to happen with this one however. That ULL should wipe Colin out.

[hurricaneCW]

Colin's struggling because its on the heals of a strong SAL surge.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

A new wave recently existed Africa, maybe that will turn into something. I said before that Danielle will be the storm of the season. It'll probably form between August 7-9.

[StormClouds63]

The Atlantic Basin has the mange this year.

were still practically in preseason, everything picks up around august 15. And besides we started the season with a category 2 hurricane, that likely wouldve been more had it not made landfall. Sorry we havent had enough landfalling majors yet...

Be that as it may, the guy made a valid point. It doesn't really seem to matter where you are right now in the ATL, the entire basin is just shockingly unfavorable. Instead of imagining magically the situation is going to change, you also have to consider why it wouldnt.


TUTTs are everywhere. SAL is dominant. I would definitely agree this season has been unfolding quite strangely. Consider this:

-If your a TW off Africa you eat SAL.
-If your riding the Caribbean you hit dry air, TUTT's or smash into Central America.
-If you manage to make it past the C. America, you hook into the Yucatan, insuring you stay weak regardless of where you go.
-If your in the Open Atlantic, you eat SAL and TUTTs.
-If your in the GOM, you decouple and dis-integrate. In the middle of the GOM no less.



I don't have any answer for that. These things don't happen in Hyperactive seasons, IMO.

Very unfavorable conditions continue... and it's August.

[Aric Dunn]

whats rather curious for the 12z models is the intensity forecast... last night they were all over the place some weakened it to nothing others intensified a little.. but now nearly all intensify it and many even bring it to cat one late in period... that and the gfs has a very slow moving wobbly colin off the SE us coast... very odd these small systems are models just have a hard time forecasting what they are going to do..

[Gustywind]

Fast-moving Tropical Storm Colin
M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 3, 2010 12:15 pm ET
Tropical Depression 4 developed Monday morning in the Central Atlantic. As of this morning, the depression strengthened slightly into Tropical Storm Colin.

Colin, located about 840 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands (northern Lesser Antilles), has winds near 40 miles per hour. Colin is moving to the west near 24 miles per hour. This fast movement is causing debilitating shear and Colin is struggling to hold on to its minimal tropical storm status. The system is expected to pass just north of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday and Thursday and should not cause any problems.

[MWatkins]

Regardless of how Colin looks now...I am more concerned about redevelopment in 48 to 72 hours once the bulk of the expected shear lets up.

What is left of Colin is a negatively tilted wave...and convergence should continue around the wave axis. Once the forward speed lowers some, and the environment improves, I think Colin is going to be a prime candidate for redevelopment.

And...to give an idea of how favorable conditions could become, take a look at the 12Z NOGAPS model. It develops Colin too fast in my opinion, but it also creates a gigantic hurricane out of this system on a recurve path.

I think NOGAPS is too fast with redevelopment...and the idea the GFS is floating (trapped system ultimately getting pushed back west) should open some eyes. This system, in terms of an eventual threat to the US coast, is still something that needs to be watched VERY closely.

MW

[JTE50]

If a storm has a tight and well defined LLC, then they can strengthen when moving at high speeds.

An example would be Hurricane Charley on August 13, (Friday) 2004. Went from a CAT 2 (11am advisory) to a Cat 4 (2pm advisory) while moving about 20 mph just offshore of Punta Gorda, FL.

I gave up on Colin days ago. Next.

too be fair... the example of charley and Colin are not correct... although they were both moving fast, charley was in a highly enhanced baroclinic zone which allowed for the rapid intensification as well as a very moist environment ahead of the cold front. Colin on the other hand is in a completely different synoptic setup. it is true small systems can spin up (and down) faster than large systems but its always dependent on the environment. Dean was moving around 20mph as a strong intensifying hurricane and it was large compared to colin and charley. So yes size does matter but its not an indication of a storms overall potential lol

I only gave the Charley reference as a hurricane moving rather quickly that could intensify. That's it. No reference to Colin was intended as they are very different.

[CrazyC83]

One thing that seems to be the case: both systems east and west of Colin - neither of which are even Invests yet - look better right now. I do believe Colin has TS winds based on its movement (maybe up to 45 kt), but I don't think it has an LLC.

[Gladstone]

Wanna see a horror movie?

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/dat ... 1280779844

[lebron23]

Wanna see a horror movie?

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/dat ... 1280779844

I am getting yesterdays loop from that link

[MGC]

Colin looks sick...very sick. I doubt the storm will survive the shear ahead of it....MGC

[Hurricane Andrew]

I am seeing 2 LLCs. One is that naked swirl, the otheris that swirl in the convection.