ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

My question is, why is it moving THAT fast? That speed usually corresponds to either caught up in a mid latitude trough turning extra tropical or a massive high steaming west. I'm not seeing either.

I guess you could blame it on the easterlies, but for it to be moving at 36 mph, that should be caused by a huge strong high...

Where are you getting 36? Advisory says 24.

wxman57 estimates 107 miles in 3 hours or 36 mph

[Ivanhater]

My question is, why is it moving THAT fast? That speed usually corresponds to either caught up in a mid latitude trough turning extra tropical or a massive high steaming west. I'm not seeing either.

I guess you could blame it on the easterlies, but for it to be moving at 36 mph, that should be caused by a huge strong high...

Where are you getting 36? Advisory says 24.

Look at wxmans post above...36mph

[Category 5]

My question is, why is it moving THAT fast? That speed usually corresponds to either caught up in a mid latitude trough turning extra tropical or a massive high steaming west. I'm not seeing either.

I guess you could blame it on the easterlies, but for it to be moving at 36 mph, that should be caused by a huge strong high...

ask and you shall recieve....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Things basically being shot out of a cannon. Problem is, again, moving that fast, for a fledgling storm can be fatal.

Speed kills

Btw, 36mph, I can't recall a storm in this general area moving that fast before.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Ivan, a strong 1033 mb high.

[Riptide]

What is going to happen when the LLC of Colin gets under that convection to the NW? I think it is all one big system ready for explosive developement. The shear may end up benefiting this system, the forward speed is the biggest issue right now anyways.

[Ivanhater]

Still, if it were directly under a strong high I could see a very fast movement. I still don't think I have seen 36 mph even in that situation.

The problem is, if it is supposed to be rounding the edge of it now into a weakness, it shouldn't be speeding up even more!

[TwisterFanatic]

Im confused, we have people saying we could see intensification in about 36 hours, and we got people saying its toast..

[ROCK]

Still, if it were directly under a strong high I could see a very fast movement. I still don't think I have seen 36 mph even in that situation.

The problem is, if it is supposed to be rounding the edge of it now into a weakness, it shouldn't be speeding up even more!

add in the easterlies and you get one booking storm....1033 is nothing to sneeze about....steering layers are very strong as you can see....I think it will take the weakness soon but at what form is a whole nother deal....

[Category 5]

Still, if it were directly under a strong high I could see a very fast movement. I still don't think I have seen 36 mph even in that situation.

The problem is, if it is supposed to be rounding the edge of it now into a weakness, it shouldn't be speeding up even more!

I was thinking the same thing, if its gonna curve it should be slowing down. I'm starting to lean toward the south end of this cone.

[tolakram]

Not much left.

[HURAKAN]

03/1745 UTC 15.3N 52.3W T1.5/2.0 COLIN -- Atlantic

no surprises here!

[Category 5]

This might not survive the night at this rate

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Aric Dunn]

interesting to note even though it is very likely weakened to either a open wave or back to TD but the models have shifted much farther left and south and re strengthen it towards the end of period... it is a distinct possibility that a more wnw motion will persist while its so weak which would explain the models shifting drastically..

[Frank2]

Per the over-exposed METEO FRANCE photo (lol), strong shear ahead of very weak Colin...

[Aric Dunn]

Also the convection building to the NW is not directly associated with Colin.. however it provide a better assessment of the environment ahead of colin.. clearly some more moisture exists and better divergence aloft although its a very narrow area it is possible to see a slight improvement especially if it were to slow down some..

[Weatherfreak000]

Look at that massive SAL outbreak being caused by that strong high pressure.


If Danielle doesn't form in the Caribbean we may be seeing a lull of activity very soon.

[Blown Away]

Something has got to give, Colin is racing way ahead of the forecast points. Either Colin gets to the western edge of the high and begins the turn earlier or Colin gets farther west before turning. IMO, it can't happen along the NHC's track because Colin at this speed is going to hit the 11am 24 hour forecast longitude point about 13 hours early!

[Category 5]

Isn't this what the SAL looked like in 2005?

And Colins track is a pointless argument right now, let's make sure it makes it to 11pm first.