Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 92L)

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ConvergenceZone
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#161 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 03, 2010 11:34 am

Hmmm, I was more bullish on this yesterday than today being an actual threat. I guess just like everything else this year, it will be ripped apart by dry air or shear or ULL's........What a bizarre year so far.
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Re: Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea

#162 Postby CourierPR » Tue Aug 03, 2010 12:26 pm

This system looks decent. Yet, I see posts that say there is nothing there or it's going to be ripped apart by shear, SAL, ULLs,etc. and I wonder what these people are looking at.
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Re: Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea

#163 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 03, 2010 12:47 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS OF VENEZUELA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS LIKELY TO
BE SLOW DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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#164 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 03, 2010 12:55 pm

Image

vorticity remains strong
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Re: Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea

#165 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 03, 2010 12:55 pm

CourierPR wrote:This system looks decent. Yet, I see posts that say there is nothing there or it's going to be ripped apart by shear, SAL, ULLs,etc. and I wonder what these people are looking at.



Courier, just stating that it's the way the season has gone so far. It's usually one of the other that's been keeping these waves from developing.
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#166 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 03, 2010 1:05 pm

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

It could be an illusion but appears to be coming together
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#167 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 03, 2010 1:39 pm

12Z EURO brings system way south into BOC then Mexico...To much Ridging to the north!!!!!!!
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Re:

#168 Postby lrak » Tue Aug 03, 2010 2:25 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

It could be an illusion but appears to be coming together



I agree, it looks better than yesterday. A BOC storm would be nice, we've had two BOC swells hit the TX coast this summer and thats awesome for early August.
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#169 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 03, 2010 2:47 pm

Image

Tomorrow could be interesting
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Re: Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea

#170 Postby hurricaneCW » Tue Aug 03, 2010 3:11 pm

Everybody says "tomorrow could be interesting". It never is. The environment looks marginal for this one and it's too close to land. Models don't really develop it. Probably nothing will come from it. Either that or it will try to get going but crash into Central America.
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Re: Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea

#171 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 03, 2010 3:14 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:Everybody says "tomorrow could be interesting". It never is. The environment looks marginal for this one and it's too close to land. Models don't really develop it. Probably nothing will come from it. Either that or it will try to get going but crash into Central America.


Image

it has an anticyclone over and it's moving away from South America
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Re: Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea

#172 Postby hurricaneCW » Tue Aug 03, 2010 3:20 pm

The wave is still likely to bury itself into Central America even if the apparent conditions are favorable. I don't see anything that would indicate any rapid development in the next couple of days. The NHC agrees with their last TWO.
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#173 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 03, 2010 3:30 pm

Image

convection increasing in D-min
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Re: Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea

#174 Postby lrak » Tue Aug 03, 2010 4:35 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:It never is.


Never? :eek: Bummer lets close up shop for the season :P
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Re: Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea

#175 Postby mattpetre » Tue Aug 03, 2010 4:43 pm

I would tend to agree with Hurakan that this could be very interesting in the next two to three days and I also think it will make it to Mexican latitude at least rather than just Central America.
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Re: Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea

#176 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 03, 2010 5:48 pm

Image

pressure decreasing, most likely due to the normal cycle but still it's lower than yesterday

Image

strong vorticity

Image

impressive anticyclone

I would guess chances are going up at 8 pm, maybe 30%
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#177 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 03, 2010 5:50 pm

Bonaire:

6 PM (22) Aug 03 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.77 (1008) ENE 7
5 PM (21) Aug 03 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.80 (1009) ENE 6
4 PM (20) Aug 03 87 (31) 78 (26) 29.80 (1009) NW 2
3 PM (19) Aug 03 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.83 (1010) Calm
2 PM (18) Aug 03 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) E 8 heavy rain
1 PM (17) Aug 03 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) ESE 9 rain
Noon (16) Aug 03 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) E 12
11 AM (15) Aug 03 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) E 13
10 AM (14) Aug 03 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) E 12
9 AM (13) Aug 03 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) E 8

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TNCB.html
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Re: Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea

#178 Postby blazess556 » Tue Aug 03, 2010 6:07 pm

radar imagery of the caribbean disturbance.


http://www.weather.an/radar/ppi.html
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Re: Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea

#179 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 03, 2010 6:10 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:The wave is still likely to bury itself into Central America even if the apparent conditions are favorable. I don't see anything that would indicate any rapid development in the next couple of days. The NHC agrees with their last TWO.


Nah nothing too quick, but the conditions are favourable, the only obvious problem has to be the fact that its right on top of SA.

Watch for it in the W.Caribbean because that issue with the land will be gone and with a favourable upper conditions as well, probably will have more then enough time to develop (probably only need 24hrs with the current set-up providing the wave remains convectivly active)
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xcool22

#180 Postby xcool22 » Tue Aug 03, 2010 6:18 pm

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