WPAC: Ex DIANMU

[dexterlabio]

Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Depression "DOMENG"
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Tuesday, 03 August 2010 The Low Pressure Area (LPA) East of Bicol region has developed into a tropical depression and was named "DOMENG".
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 500 kms East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Coordinates: 15.1°N, 129.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 45 kph near the center
Movement: West Northwest at 7 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Wednesday afternoon
390 kms East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Thursday afternoon
300 kms Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Friday afternoon
330 kms North of Virac, Catanduanes


So our local weather agency, PAGASA, upgraded this disturbance (I suppose they are referring to this invest) into a tropical depression. The weird thing is how they were able to classify this as a depression.

[Chacor]

And this time the JMA's not interested in this system. Not even a mention on the 06z marine bulletin.

[StormingB81]

Wonder what kind of track they have..

[KWT]

Ah thats a little unusual to see the PAGASA pull the trigger earlier then the JMA isn't it?

[StormingB81]

Wonder if these two (Invest 96 (TD) and 97) will effect eachother

edit: and just as I say that this comes up: The 48-hour Tropical Cyclone Formation Potentials for LPAs 96W & 97W located off the Eastermost & Northeasternmost Philippines remains at 50%.

http://www.maybagyo.com/

[P.K.]

PAGASA seem to be the only agency at all interested with this.

** WTPH20 RPMM 030600 ***
TTT WARNING 01

AT 0600 03 AUGUST TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED
ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH
ONE TWO NINE POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN
ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE
THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT
040600 ONE FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT NINE
EAST AT 050600 ONE SIX POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT
FOUR EAST AT 060600 ONE SEVEN POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE
POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED
TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD

WEATHER MANILA =

[StormingB81]

http://www.maybagyo.com/t2kgraphsat.gif

Interesting map...They have 97 ( SE of Okinawa going between PI and Taiwan and 96 (TD Domeng) going towards Okinawa. but I know with storms when they first start IF they start they change 5 times the first 5 forcasts lets see what they do

[Chacor]

For the record, that site is not an official agency of any kind.

[StormingB81]

You think anyone will jump on board this one today like pagasa did yesterday?

[StormingB81]

For the record, that site is not an official agency of any kind.

Sorry we have a link to that site on on our military weather page

[StormingB81]

Maybe not I just looked at the radar doesnt look good and is moving on land

[supercane]

Wonder what kind of track they have..

[supercane]

Actually, looking at times on graphic, the map on PAGASA's site has not been updated for the new advisory:

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING

WTPH RPMM 031800
TTT WARNING 03

AT 1800 03 AUGUST TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 041800 ONE SEVEN POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT TWO EAST AT 051800 ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 061800 TWO ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA

Source: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcws.html

[KWT]

Almost looks like they've jsut extraped the current motion doesn't it!

[supercane]

Agreed. Morning vis also not very impressive:

[KWT]

Nope looks very unimpressive at the moment I've gotta say, wonder if we are globally heading into something like 1977, where all the basins where slower then expected...

[StormingB81]

I have no idea bu it seems nothing can get stated. maybe its my fault its been like this since i got here..lol

[wyq614]

Is 96W really TD Domeng? 96W was located near 12.1N 135.8E at 030600 UTC, Domeng was located near 15.1N 129.4E at 030800 UTC. I wonder they are really the same system.

[dhoeze]

they should be just the same, although my inexperienced eyes are telling me
its too disorganized to even tell where it is

[dexterlabio]

I was thinking about this last night, because it is unlikely that TD Domeng is 96W. It seems, for me, that the system Domeng doesn't really exist, and the cloud clusters of this system is different from 96W. By the way, I believe the wind shear in the waters east of the Philippines is quite high, that is why these numerous cloud formation over the sea couldn't develop into a cyclone.