ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[KWT]

supercane, I'd imagine given the conditions aloft and the SAL present I'd be very surprised if there is much if anything left of this circulation, probably would require a new identity if it did decide to reform down the line.

[redfish1]

anyone think it could be a GOM threat now down the line?

[ROCK]

anyone think it could be a GOM threat now down the line?

not this year...but maybe in 2016...

[taccido]

This bad boy is going to come back says the National Hurricane Center and they oughta know!

120HR VT 08/1800Z 30.0N 73.5W 30 KT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[ozonepete]

Maybe Jack (Beven) just made a mistake on the classification at hour 120? Easy to do. It would be like the NHC forecasting a depression to develop from a tropical wave 5 days in the future.

Nah. My impression of Jack is that he would be more careful than that. Bold call though. I'll tip my hat to FSU for an entire day if he gets this one.

Yeah, I know Jack. See him often at conventions/AMS meetings. Great meteorologist. It's just so strange to set that 120hr point to TD vs. Post-tropical.

I would think if the models are calling for it to redevelop around that time, and it does, it would be a TD, right? You wouldn't call it post-tropical since it would be a tropical entity.

[loup-garou]

Sure hope no one gets fired if it was not supposed to come back as a tropical depression. I think it was not a mistake and the NHC is saying Colin will be back with us very soon. Hopefully, it will not develop into a hurricane and surprise some Floridians.

[Ivanhater]

Vorticity is very strong with the MLC further south and east

[Ivanhater]

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[KWT]

I'm willing to bet that will decrease soon though Ivanhater, the conveciton just pretty much poofed, now looking way too linear and part of a band of storms on the TUTT's eastern side.

[meebo]

Colin may come back but not now wait for just 4 days says hurricane centre. Hope never come back!

[supercane]

KWT, not saying that Colin will come back, just trying to explain Beven's discussion. Certainly agree that if something does reform, it would most likely not be Colin.

Made from CIMSS TCTrak. Heading toward a more hostile environment with worse shear:

[Gustywind]

Colin may come back but not now wait for just 4 days says hurricane centre. Hope never come back!

Yeah agree:D hope that he will never come back. Whereas we must continue to monitor carefully in case of. But force to admit that much of the carib islanders are surely taking a nice "zen" breathe and having a huge smile in their heart during these summer holidays. The news is apparently much more optimistic than it was this morning, but let's see if this dying trend is really confirmed . Seems that this feature and its remnants should not bring too much water on the islands and that's the very good thing because of PR have been very well showered and it's an euphemisma.
Gustywind

[KWT]

Yeah Supercane I agree, the shear is ramping up now from the opposite side, you've got some very big speed shear occuring now, you've got the low level flow going at something like 30kts and the upper flow going the opposite way as fast, thats the sort of shear that kills hurricanes in hours!

[Macrocane]

This scenario could be like the birth of Katrina, when the low level circulation of TD 10 died but the mid level survived and gave birth to Katrina a few days later.

Note: I'm not saying that it will have the same intensity or track, just a similar genesis.

[rolltide]

Again, there is a lot of unnecessary posts on here. Staff will not hesitate to delete these posts.

We strive for quality not quantity here. If you have a question or something to add that is fine but think before you post.

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[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 04, 2010080400, , BEST, 0, 163N, 547W, 30, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Still racing WNW.

[Stephanie]

Again, there is a lot of unnecessary posts on here. Staff will not hesitate to delete these posts.

We strive for quality not quantity here. If you have a question or something to add that is fine but think before you post.

Have you deleted some posts? I don't see anything out of line recently.

We're quick.

[KWT]

I still can't believe its going as fast as it is, 25-30kts is just unreal for the deep tropics, got some seriously strong easterly surges, so much for the weaker trades eh!

[cycloneye]

A reduction of 2 kts on the speed from the 18z bt to the 00z bt.

290DEG SPDCUR = 28KT

[KWT]

Not exactly much of a difference though Cycloneye

Still utterly racing along, will probably steadily slow down in the next few days as the SAL surge starts to weaken.