ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Stays way south!

[Ivanhater]

Stays way south!

Do you have some analysis to go with that rather short forecast?

[Nimbus]

They usually swing the track the other way showing a landfall in Mexico then swing the track north if anything develops. At least get some idea of the upper air pattern they expect.

[lonelymike]

Ivan,
Where do u get those Euro maps from? Never seen those before of the Euro.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yes, actually he did. Remember it was in the other thread in talkin tropics - the one you challenged.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan,
Where do u get those Euro maps from? Never seen those before of the Euro.

Mike, you are about to have a field day with this site..any model you want

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models.html

[Ivanhater]

Yes, actually he did. Remember it was in the other thread in talkin tropics - the one you challenged.

I didn't see anything except a strong ridge to push it way south..but I'm not seeing it...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Stays way south!

Do you have some analysis to go with that rather short forecast?

To much ridiging to the north.

[Ivanhater]

Stays way south!

Do you have some analysis to go with that rather short forecast?

To much ridiging to the north.

Maybe I'm seeing something wrong but I do not see a strong ridge to the north with the trough over the east coast displacing the ridge and turning Colin

[KFDM Meteorologist]

To much ridiging over Texas and the Plains.

[lonelymike]

Ivan,
Where do u get those Euro maps from? Never seen those before of the Euro.

Mike, you are about to have a field day with this site..any model you want

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models.html

Thanks!

[Ivanhater]

To much ridiging over Texas and the Plains.

Wait, even the 1014mb line doesn't even go past Louisiana..the subtropical ridge is displaced way into the Atlantic and the mid west high is far north. I see no ridging over Texas for this to "stay way south" but If I'm missing something I will be the first to say I'm wrong

Edit: btw the mid west high is very short lived before replaced with another trough on the Euro

[HouTXmetro]

And it begins.....I have usually sided with the EURO camp but Bonnie brought me back to Earth with that model. Anyways, I see your point Ivan. My guess would be that should this stay weak it stays well south of the Gulf. The model GFDL/HWRF runs will be interesting.

[Ivanhater]

And it begins.....I have usually sided with the EURO camp but Bonnie brought me back to Earth with that model. Anyways, I see your point Ivan. My guess would be that should this stay weak it stays well south of the Gulf. The model GFDL/HWRF runs will be interesting.

Exactly, the only way it stays south is if it stays weak, which is totally possible; but not because of a ridge. If it develops it will feel the weakness...

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, if it stays weak it rides the ridging onward toward CA, but if it deepens a good bit it is going to back that ridge down, no doubt.

[Hurricane]

How much shear is there in the Gulf? Is there anything coming up that will inhibit development?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

To much ridiging over Texas and the Plains.

Wait, even the 1014mb line doesn't even go past Louisiana..the subtropical ridge is displaced way into the Atlantic and the mid west high is far north. I see no ridging over Texas for this to "stay way south" but If I'm missing something I will be the first to say I'm wrong

Edit: btw the mid west high is very short lived before replaced with another trough on the Euro

Yes Ridge over Texas and the Plains at this time, Ridge responsible for the excessive heat.

[Ivanhater]

To much ridiging over Texas and the Plains.

Wait, even the 1014mb line doesn't even go past Louisiana..the subtropical ridge is displaced way into the Atlantic and the mid west high is far north. I see no ridging over Texas for this to "stay way south" but If I'm missing something I will be the first to say I'm wrong

Edit: btw the mid west high is very short lived before replaced with another trough on the Euro

Yes Ridge over Texas and the Plains at this time, Ridge responsible for the excessive heat.

Yes, right now there is a ridge in place but that has nothing to do with what is forecast in just 72 hours when this is in the western Caribbean. The Euro shows this very well. Where is the ridge over Texas on the EURO?

[TwisterFanatic]

FWIW.. the ridge that is causing all the extreme heat over Texas and Oklahoma is supposed to slide westward during the course of the week.. This from our meteorologist's here in Oklahoma.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Here's our afternoon long range afd to add to the mix. This debate is pretty interesting.

LONG TERM...
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH CENTER REMAINS
CENTERED WELL TO THE W AND NW WITH AS MID UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
SAG CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL AND E GULF COAST. BOTH DEVELOPMENTS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS AND PRECIP COVERAGE TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.
LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO BRING TROP WAVE AND MOISTURE ACROSS
YUCATAN SUN MOVING ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MON. AT PRESENT TIME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEMS APPEARS SUPPRESSED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH FOR SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE IN OUR REGION. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK UPPER HIGH BECOMES SITUATED WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER AR/MO
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND POPS EXPECTED.