ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[Ivanhater]

Houston AFD

THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HOWEVER THE
MODELS ARE NOT CURRENTLY SHOWING INTENSIFICATION AND NHC OUTLOOK
ONLY HAS 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF INTENSIFYING TO TROPICAL STORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

EXTREMELY LONG RANGE OUTLOOK LOOKS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH
GFS BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX
INTO OUR AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

[Ivanhater]

Dallas AFD

APPEARS ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF CWA THIS WEEKEND...
BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL IN EASTERN ZONES AS RIDGE
WEAKENS. INTERMEDIATE 06Z GFS FEATURED A PROMINENT EASTERLY WAVE
INVADING TEXAS NEXT WEEK. THIS IS NOT PRESENT IN OTHER EXTENDED
MODELS...AND GFS PERTURBATIONS SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AT THAT
TIME. THE HEAT WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END..

[South Texas Storms]

how many/which models have 92l strengthening into a tc and heading into the gulf?

[Sambucol]

Houston AFD
EXTREMELY LONG RANGE OUTLOOK LOOKS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH
GFS BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX
INTO OUR AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

Is this something altogether different from 92L?

[Ivanhater]

Houston AFD
EXTREMELY LONG RANGE OUTLOOK LOOKS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH
GFS BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX
INTO OUR AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

Is this something altogether different from 92L?

Yes, the ULL is not 92L

[Dynamic]

Hi, I have a question just for curiosity. Why this Invest is labeled Storm 98 instead of Storm 92????

[cycloneye]

Hi, I have a question just for curiosity. Why this Invest is labeled Storm 98 instead of Storm 92????

This is my post about it at the 92L discussion thread.

A note to let know the members that an error occured when the invest was first up as someone at the atcf site clicked 98L instead of 92L. That provoked the first bam models to run as 98L not 92L.Then a few minutes later they deactivated 98L and activate 92L.That is why you dont see 92L on our graphic up in the forum nor at the NRL Navy site.92L will appear when they run the 06z models.

[summersquall]

Hi, I have a question just for curiosity. Why this Invest is labeled Storm 98 instead of Storm 92????

A note to let know the members that an error occured when the invest was first up as someone at the atcf site clicked 98L instead of 92L. That provoked the first bam models to run as 98L not 92L.Then a few minutes later they deactivated 98L and activate 92L.That is why you dont see 92L on our graphic up in the forum nor at the NRL Navy site.92L will appear when they run the 06z models.

(92L discussion thread)

[Wx_Warrior]

NAM

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs 0z 30h

[South Texas Storms]

is the gfs not developing 92l?

[Wx_Warrior]

48h

[Ivanhater]

There really isn't that much model support for this.

[RL3AO]

There really isn't that much model support for this.

But some are. Afterall its a wave in a hot low shear Caribbean in August.

[Ivanhater]

There really isn't that much model support for this.

But some are. Afterall its a wave in a hot low shear Caribbean in August.

Yeah, conditions look ripe. I would like to see more model support though. If it can get going it will allow it to lift up before washing into CA...

[StormClouds63]

If it does develop to TS or greater, chances are it's headed for Mexico ... Alex Part 2 (Danielle). If it were mid-September, maybe the ridge does break down enough, but doubtful in early August. Worth keeping an eye on, but I'll go with the pro met on this one.

I remember Isidore in 2002 eventually being pulled north from the Yucutan ... but it was late September. Isidore went from an impressive cat. 3 to a large, disorganized TS due to extended time over the Yucutan (which was not predicted).

[Ivanhater]

If it does develop to TS or greater, chances are it's headed for Mexico ... Alex Part 2 (Danielle). If it were mid-September, maybe the ridge does break down enough, but doubtful in early August. Worth keeping an eye on, but I'll go with the pro met on this one.

I remember Isidore in 2002 eventually being pulled north from the Yucutan ... but it was late September. Isidore went from an impressive cat. 3 to a large, disorganized TS due to extended time over the Yucutan (which was not predicted).

I asked KMFD the same question..and didn't get an answer. What would cause this to keep trucking westward so far south if it gained intensity? I guess you could go against the models and say the ridge will not break down because it's August which is fine, but that is going against the models like the Euro....

Looks like the AFD'S written by Pro mets also, are sticking with the models showing the ridge break down and a weakness develop.

Of course, all this doesn't matter if it does not develop

[StormClouds63]

Ivan:

We'll have to watch and wait to see if the ridge holds firm or weakens enough to allow whatever 92L is at that point to slide north. I think it holds, as it did in 2007 with Dean and Felix. The pattern this season may be very similar to 2007, at least in the Caribbean and GOM.

I respect your opinion, no problem there. I'm a novice as far as tropical weather, so I could be completely wrong. I certainly was wrong when I predicted an Outer Banks landfall for Colin.

In a few days, we should have a better idea. With that anti-cyclone over it, 92L at least has a decent chance to develop.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan:

We'll have to watch and wait to see if the ridge holds firm or weakens enough to allow whatever 92L is at that point to slide north. I think it holds, as it did in 2007 with Dean and Felix. The pattern this season may be very similar to 2007, at least in the Caribbean and GOM.

I respect your opinion, no problem there. I'm a novice as far as tropical weather, so I could be completely wrong. I certainly was wrong when I predicted an Outer Banks landfall for Colin.

In a few days, we should have a better idea. With that anti-cyclone over it, 92L at least has a decent chance to develop.

I definitely agree on that. I'm not really sure why this doesn't have more model support given the favorable conditions. Wait and see as always

[ROCK]

Man, I go away for a few hours and look what we have here.......Ivan? famous last words bro?

WHo was saying the 18z GFS from yesterday was a fluke run.....shameful...

Ivan you are right as the ECM has the ridge displaced opening the door to the GOM....now if it doesnt develop then it's CA bound......