ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Like I had mentioned earlier ... do not throw colin out the door.. it is moving into a highly divergent upper environment and there is a lot of low level vorticity and it would not take much to get things going again .. there is shear coming late tomorrow and it will likely hold it in check but the shear is again very divergent which is not completely bad... the recent convective burst was anticipated since it was moving into more moist environment with better upper support.

[Aric Dunn]

it is actually possible that all the vorticity gets left behind by the trough that was originally supposed to pick it up and we then will have a system possibly near the SE coast..

[Aric Dunn]

The 00z nogaps is a little disturbing..

[TwisterFanatic]

The 00z nogaps is a little disturbing..

What do you mean?

[Aric Dunn]

The 00z nogaps is a little disturbing..

What do you mean?

well take a look.. its very much more west this run than before ...

and quite strong.. the rest of the models will likely shift farther west tomorrow...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[TwisterFanatic]

The 00z nogaps is a little disturbing..

What do you mean?

well take a look.. its very much more west this run than before ...

and quite strong.. the rest of the models will likely shift farther west tomorrow...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Oh Wow! I see what you mean.. That would not be a good situation at all.

[Brent]

ABNT20 KNHC 040533
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS ISLANDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Ivanhater]

[cwachal]

are we sure it is not a closed low again already?

[KWT]

Its getting a very classic shear look now, reminds me exactly of what pre-Bonnie looked like in this part of the basin.

[cycloneye]

Even if the main part of the convection moves to the north of the islands, some squally weather will move thru as the tail end passes.

[ColinDelia]

SHIPS has the shear at a maximum in the next 6 hours and then decreasing after that.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 37 41 45 49 49 54 59 63 66
V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 37 41 45 49 49 54 59 63 66
V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 29 30 31 32 32 34 37 43 52 60

SHEAR (KT) 16 24 21 17 15 15 18 14 13 7 3 7 1

[pepeavilenho]

Latest

[Nimbus]

Looks like some very squally weather on the way for the islands. You can still see the wave axis, but obviously no closed circulation around the southern side. This could certainly survive as a sharp wave for a few days if some of the energy stays south.

[KWT]

Could get a stronger MLC if the current set-up holds.

I suspect regeneration could well occur as the system heads up the western side into a recurving pattern, typically that tends to favour strengthening storms, esp if the system heads NNE.

[Gustywind]

Latest

Yellow alert have been requiered this morning for the Northern Leewards given Meteo-france latest weather forecast. The weather forecast is focusing on the fact that showers tstorms and gusts should are expected tonight on the Northern Leewards.
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO DUE
TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[KWT]

If any reformation were to occur it'd probably with the northern convection I'd imagine at the moment.

Still the tail end will probably give some rain.

Needs watching in case of reformation in the W.atlantic but shouldn't amount to much.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...DISCUSSION...


CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LESSER ANTILLES CURRENTLY REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING BUT CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE LATER TODAY AS THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES APPROACHES THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN...IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 20N56W TO 13N58W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 56W-61W.

$$
PAW

[Gustywind]

Latest from SSD:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
04/1145 UTC 17.9N 59.8W T1.5/1.5 COLIN -- Atlantic
03/2345 UTC 16.2N 54.9W TOO WEAK COLIN -- Atlantic