ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[KWT]

Back upto 1.5, very interesting indeed!

Probably no hint of a LLC but I'd guess the MLC will be strengthening right now.

Also worth noting, recon is heading into this system today still!

[wzrgirl1]

Something tells me we are not quite done with Colin yet. He may be a sneaky little fellow. Persistent indeed.

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

Someone told me earlier that they think they spotted the lower level circulation, way out at 19/63....and looking at the loops its quite obvious actually.

If thats the case, boy is the shear severe right now, though it does have some convection nearby still

Recon will probably end up investigating the MLC instead bt they might sample both areas if there is time.

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8

[Gustywind]

Squalls are making a slight approach near the islands... becoming more closer.

[wzrgirl1]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8

Why does it look so slanted?

[srainhoutx]

Southerly shear.

[KWT]

Islands will probably miss the worst of it Gustywind given the convection should shift WNW/NW due to the southerly shear caused by the TUTT.

The actual mid levels are pretty good right now, but the low level system is well displaced.

[HURAKAN]

very strong vorticity

[KWT]

Hurakan, note the strongest Vorticity is now with the convection and probable MLC...I'd be amazed if the system is even close to developing right now but conditions look decent for redevelopment as it rounds that upper feature.

[Gustywind]

Islands will probably miss the worst of it Gustywind given the convection should shift WNW/NW due to the southerly shear caused by the TUTT.

The actual mid levels are pretty good right now, but the low level system is well displaced.

Yeah, you're right we hope that the worst will not spread on the islands. Whereas, episods of rain could always spread on us today, especially this afternoon given Meteo-France latest weather forecast. But we do not expected nice amounts of water and that's good news. Let's wait and see.

[Sanibel]

Shear is currently 40Kts off the Outer Banks. That should decrease as the High displaces the front. Another shear distrupted cyclone as the tendency continues this year.

[Blown Away]

Hurakan, note the strongest Vorticity is now with the convection and probable MLC...I'd be amazed if the system is even close to developing right now but conditions look decent for redevelopment as it rounds that upper feature.

So the feature spinning up near 19N/63W is not of interest? Sure does look like the circulation near 18N/60W area it will move much closer to PR & DR than previous thought.

[HURAKAN]

12z

AL, 04, 2010080412, , BEST, 0, 178N, 595W, 30, 1008, LO

[Blown Away]

Shear is currently 40Kts off the Outer Banks. That should decrease as the High displaces the front. Another shear distrupted cyclone as the tendency continues this year.

What happened to the lower pressures in the Atlantic will lower shear?

[hurricaneCW]

I see the center around 19.5N 63W as well, but as assume in a weakly sheared system like this one, it could reform closer to the convection. Since the MLC is clearly getting better organized, we could see it reform over there. Still not much to see for another few days though. A good 20-30 knots of shear near the disturbance.

[Frank2]

If you look at the big picture you can see the positive tilt of a tropical wave:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

[KWT]

Hurakan, note the strongest Vorticity is now with the convection and probable MLC...I'd be amazed if the system is even close to developing right now but conditions look decent for redevelopment as it rounds that upper feature.

So the feature spinning up near 19N/63W is not of interest? Sure does look like the circulation near 18N/60W area it will move much closer to PR & DR than previous thought.

Thats the low level circulation from the looks of things, its being sustained by periodic convection occuring but its clearly way displaced.

Still this does remind me alot of pre-Bonnie in this location and so this does have a chance as it starts to head to the NW/NNW IMO.

Probably not much will get going before 72hrs though IMO...

[HURAKAN]

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