Disturbance over the eastern Atantic

[CrazyC83]

All these waves will just eat up SAL to make things favorable for storms down the line?

[KWT]

What needs to be seen is just how much convection is suddenly out there, and notice how the MJO is now back to neutral and is starting to become more favourable, its really like a light switch flicking on.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

From Crown Weather site: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325
Discussion
Finally, I am keeping an eye on disturbances in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. One particularly strong disturbance just tracked off of the coast of Africa, however, the model guidance isn’t too overly robust with development as it is likely to compete with energy inside the ITCZ. So, development chances over the next few days seem low, however, we should watch for development as it travels further west this weekend into next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Thursday morning.

[KWT]

The models still try to spin up something in this area, the ECM/GFS both develop pretty much the same region however they both aren't too strong with it, which means probably if it does form it won't be too strong, maybe a Colin repeat but further east and a quicker recurve.

[sunnyday]

This season has been a total dud, and I wonder if the rest of it will be the same.

[Gustywind]

How frustated people are or it's my untrained eyes?

[RL3AO]

This season has been a total dud, and I wonder if the rest of it will be the same.

So sad.

[KWT]

3 NS....the 2nd strongest June storm ever and its been a dud...lets just consider we are probably what 15-20% of the way through the season in terms of climo...

Anyway the 18z GFS blows up this system between 24-72hrs and has been doing that now for something like 15-20 runs in row. GFS recurves it about 50-55W which looks a little too far east to my eyes based on the set-up...GFS probably suggests a hurricane as well.

[hurricaneCW]

I think something will come out of it, but so far it's done a great job of eating away at the SAL. It makes future waves more likely to develop.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

It will take over a week for something to reach the Western Atlantic, I think the steering pattern could be a lot different than it is now, although the TUTT is likely to stay in place.

[cycloneye]

IMO, it should be mentioned at the 8 PM TWO only by looking at sat images.

[cycloneye]

IMO, it should be mentioned at the 8 PM TWO only by looking at sat images.

They did not mention it. But if it continues to persist tonight, is a given that tommorow morning they definitly will.

[KWT]

Oh yeah it'll get a mention soon IMO...and depending on how the pattern evolves could get an invest in he next 24hrs as well because the models do seem fairly suggestive of at least something weak forming.

[Gustywind]

That is not the 12z that the Nogaps develops and takes it NW through the Windward Islands up to just east of Puerto Rico?
http://www.bvipirate.com/NOGAPS.phtml

[Tropics Guy]

Seems to be consolidating in the latest IR pics., should be worthy of a code yellow soon IMO.


TG

[Gustywind]

[ConvergenceZone]

Now THIS is what I'm talking about. Waves FINALLY starting to hold their convection like they should this time of year.....

Hmm, I can't tell if this will be picked up and moved out to sea or not...Isn't it a bit too far south to recurve???

[Hugo1989]

Tell me what you think of another system out of africa?

[ConvergenceZone]

Hugo1989, based upon those Sat pics, perhaps this is the switch being turned on that KWT mentioned earlier...We'll see....

[Gustywind]

Never say never in the tropics should be appropriate for anything forming during August but especially in September. Let's simply wait and see as usual but keep in mind that conditions are steadily improving as we're approaching the heart of the season.