ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1241 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Aug 04, 2010 9:54 am

The center appears to be heading just north of west around 20N 63.5W.
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#1242 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 04, 2010 10:37 am

Image

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#1243 Postby supercane » Wed Aug 04, 2010 10:40 am

For those who don't know, recon is flying into ex-Colin now. See the recon thread to follow along.
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#1244 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 04, 2010 10:46 am

Don't look like recon is finding any hint of a circulation, early days of course and there could be something small, but any LLC will be a good deal west of where recon is heading into.
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#1245 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 04, 2010 10:56 am

Image

RECON found in the last pass 196 winds, or SSW
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#1246 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 04, 2010 10:58 am

There probably will be numerous little bends and kinks where the system tries develop a new LLC.

196 is ok but some way to go yet...
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1247 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 04, 2010 11:13 am

Recon is finding a circulation aloft, but actual surface obs through the area that they're investigating indicate SE winds at 20 to 25 kts. So there appears to be nothing at the surface as far as a circulation.
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#1248 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 04, 2010 11:28 am

Yeah, thats hardly surprising they are finding a circulation aloft where it is , if I remember correctly Pre Bonnie had quite a potent MLC aloft for some time.

I still think it has a fair shot at redevelopment down the line, would be a superb call if they get it...
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1249 Postby supercane » Wed Aug 04, 2010 11:31 am

wxman57 wrote:Recon is finding a circulation aloft, but actual surface obs through the area that they're investigating indicate SE winds at 20 to 25 kts. So there appears to be nothing at the surface as far as a circulation.


So you're considering the wind shift around 19.0N 61.9W they found at 750 mb as a mid-level circulation? Definitely nothing at the surface thus far.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1250 Postby jconsor » Wed Aug 04, 2010 11:35 am

Keep in mind that recon is flying at around 975 mb. So whatever circulation it is finding is very close to the surface.


wxman57 wrote:Recon is finding a circulation aloft, but actual surface obs through the area that they're investigating indicate SE winds at 20 to 25 kts. So there appears to be nothing at the surface as far as a circulation.
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#1251 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 04, 2010 11:39 am

163400 1927N 06039W 9770 00322 0137 +221 +186 125036 037 039 001 00
163430 1928N 06038W 9770 00322 0139 +211 +184 125036 037 044 007 00

TS winds
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1252 Postby TheBurn » Wed Aug 04, 2010 11:53 am

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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1253 Postby TheBurn » Wed Aug 04, 2010 11:53 am

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#1254 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 04, 2010 12:09 pm

Impressive winds - SFMR as high as 53 kt. I don't expect an LLC to be found, but if one is, it would be a solid tropical storm of 45-50 kt winds.
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#1255 Postby artist » Wed Aug 04, 2010 12:20 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Impressive winds - SFMR as high as 53 kt. I don't expect an LLC to be found, but if one is, it would be a solid tropical storm of 45-50 kt winds.

there were ssw winds found. Now wxman57 felt they were aloft but jconsor stated they were flying close to the surface.




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wxman57 wrote:
Recon is finding a circulation aloft, but actual surface obs through the area that they're investigating indicate SE winds at 20 to 25 kts. So there appears to be nothing at the surface as far as a circulation.


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jconsor wrote:
Keep in mind that recon is flying at around 975 mb. So whatever circulation it is finding is very close to the surface.
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#1256 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 04, 2010 12:25 pm

Its very close...
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#1257 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Aug 04, 2010 12:27 pm

How much longer does it have in the shear? 24-48 hours?
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#1258 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 04, 2010 12:32 pm

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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1259 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 04, 2010 12:33 pm

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Looks like some sort of low pressure is NE of PR, see how the flow is turning rather then moving west.
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#1260 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 04, 2010 12:37 pm

Nice closeup...
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