ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[Ivanhater]

Well the Nogaps and Canadian fail to develop this either.

[ROCK]

Well the Nogaps and Canadian fail to develop this either.

if the CMC doesnt see it then it probably is toast....I look to the CMC for development and EURO to track......lets see what happen tonight and tomorrow.....

off to bed now got to catch a plane in the morning....

[Ivanhater]

If they run the HWRF and GFDL tonight it should be out soon..

[Ivanhater]

Eh, doesn't look like they are running them tonight

[ROCK]

figures...you keep me up for another 10 minutes waiting on the runs.......

if I miss my plane I blame you!!

[Ivanhater]

figures...you keep me up for another 10 minutes waiting on the runs.......

if I miss my plane I blame you!!

My bad!

You never know when they are going to run those...it's not up on the FSU site which usually has it first.

[KWT]

Models suggest a classic last min attempted development, whether or not it happens I don't know, but it looks reasonable enough right now.

[HouTXmetro]

last minute attempt means central America

[KWT]

Oh without a doubt, land could well help to tighten the system but we need to keep a close eye on how that weak ULL behaves to the west, its not the strongest feature in the world but needs to be kept an eye on.

[HURAKAN]

279
WHXX01 KWBC 041324
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1324 UTC WED AUG 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100804 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100804 1200 100805 0000 100805 1200 100806 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 72.5W 15.2N 75.5W 15.9N 78.3W 16.8N 80.9W
BAMD 14.2N 72.5W 15.1N 75.1W 16.0N 77.4W 17.0N 79.5W
BAMM 14.2N 72.5W 15.0N 75.3W 15.9N 78.0W 16.9N 80.4W
LBAR 14.2N 72.5W 15.0N 75.2W 16.2N 77.7W 17.5N 80.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100806 1200 100807 1200 100808 1200 100809 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 83.4W 18.7N 87.9W 20.0N 92.5W 21.8N 97.3W
BAMD 17.8N 81.4W 19.1N 84.8W 20.3N 88.6W 21.5N 92.6W
BAMM 17.8N 82.7W 19.2N 86.9W 20.8N 91.4W 22.9N 95.6W
LBAR 18.6N 82.4W 20.9N 85.9W 23.1N 88.8W 25.3N 90.4W
SHIP 52KTS 64KTS 72KTS 75KTS
DSHP 52KTS 64KTS 40KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 72.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 69.5W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 66.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Wx_Warrior]

not much to look at on 12z gfs

[HURAKAN]

not much to look at on 12z gfs

yeah

[Stormcenter]

Yawn......oh well I'll be going to bed early for the forseeable
future.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yawn......oh well I'll be going to bed early for the forseeable
future.

You're not alone my friend... you're not alone...

[clfenwi]

18z tropical suite

Code: Select all

583
WHXX01 KWBC 041823
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1823 UTC WED AUG 4 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100804 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100804  1800   100805  0600   100805  1800   100806  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.0N  73.9W   14.8N  76.7W   15.7N  79.4W   16.5N  81.8W
BAMD    14.0N  73.9W   14.9N  76.5W   15.9N  78.8W   16.9N  80.9W
BAMM    14.0N  73.9W   14.8N  76.6W   15.8N  79.1W   16.8N  81.4W
LBAR    14.0N  73.9W   14.7N  76.5W   15.7N  79.1W   16.9N  81.7W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          39KTS          47KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          39KTS          47KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100806  1800   100807  1800   100808  1800   100809  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.2N  84.2W   18.4N  88.7W   20.0N  93.5W   21.9N  98.2W
BAMD    17.8N  82.7W   19.0N  86.4W   20.2N  90.3W   21.1N  94.5W
BAMM    17.7N  83.5W   19.0N  87.8W   20.8N  92.2W   22.6N  96.4W
LBAR    17.9N  84.0W   19.8N  88.0W   21.9N  91.5W   24.3N  94.0W
SHIP        57KTS          69KTS          77KTS          81KTS
DSHP        57KTS          58KTS          42KTS          47KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.0N LONCUR =  73.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  13.9N LONM12 =  71.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  13.4N LONM24 =  68.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN




[Wx_Warrior]

12z EURO is clean

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Looking good! 92L stays well south even if it were to develop.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looking good! 92L stays well south even if it were to develop.

Yep, you called it last night. Looks like you are right about it staying way south.
Most of the models agree with you....

Hopefully in a couple of weeks something else will develop for us to watch...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

500 High even though it builds west slightly over the Plains just to strong.

[KWT]

Oh yeah the 18z run that took it off to the north was way too strong with the upper trough, this was always going to be the most likely evolution to the pattern.

Models should head into land, the key uncertainty is whether it hits Belize or further south...those 4-6hrs over water between the two could actually be vital to this systems chances of developing.