fci wrote:hurricaneCW wrote:One of the few times where the Herbert Box doesn't apply. The storm crossed 60W south of 20N, and even now is near 20N and 63W. Also, kind of unusual to see a storm curve out like that in early August where the Bermuda Ridge should be at its strongest.
The Hebert box is not an absolute! If a storm crosses into it that does not equal a US strike. It merely presents some statistics regarding frequency of strikes when a tropical cyclone passes through the box. Stating it is one of the "few" to not strike is simply not correct. Just like a TC that does NOT pass through is not automatically not going to strike
Absolutely. Peeps are misunderstanding the methodology of how Paul Hebert came up with his two boxes. Firstly, Paul only looked at HURRICANES, as opposed to all tropical cyclones. Moreover, he looked at hurricanes that struck south Florida FIRST, then noted that most of them passed through one of his two infamous 5 x 5 boxes.
What he DID NOT do was to look at all hurricanes that passed through these boxes, then noted that most of them wound up striking south Florida.
It's like the old logic problem: "If A occurs, then there's a higher than average chance that B occurred first" is not the same thing as "If B occurs, then there's a higher than average chance that A will occur".
Consequently, stating that "If a hurricane strikes south Florida, then there's a higher than average chance that it passed through one of those two boxes." is not the same thing as saying "If a hurricane passes through one of the Hebert Boxes, then it has a higher than average chance of striking south Florida. The former (i.e. Hebert's study) does not equate to the latter. As Paul himself said, it's less of a correlation and more of a "you better pay attention if it does" sort of thing.
I encourage peeps to take a look here, and take note of the conclusions:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htmSo what does all this mean when a Hurricane passes or develops in the Hebert Box east of Puerto Rico since 1950?1)
N Carolina has as much of a chance to get hit as Florida.2)20.58% or most go out to sea without hitting land.
3)Only 8.82% make it into the Gulf of Mexico when they pass through the box as a hurricane.
4)Puerto Rico will get hit 20.58% of the time (the highest outside of n Antilles).
What about Box #2,Hurricanes developing or moving through after Oct 1st since 1950?Cuba & the Bahamas are at highest risk late in the season.
That's funny. BTW I love reading your posts. You ARE an expert. Correct me anytime you want.
