ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[KWT]

Colin looking...well very linear again this morning, I think the wall of shear is pretty close again and that maybe playing havoc on this system...

[HURAKAN]

Visible

[KWT]

Looks like any center is right on the NW side of the convection.

The convection looks like its totally hit the shear wall though, it is actually perfectly linear from that image Hurakan!

Probably still deservs to have recon go in there just to see what is what....but its a little too linear for my liking, chances of regeneration maybe gone down just a touch since yesterday but I still think it'll get there.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like we may have a LLC

[Lowpressure]

Clearly a system that has encountered shear. Agreed, center appears to be on the NW corner of convection. Would not be surprised to see the center become exposed soon. Latest visible seems to indicate a LLC based on cloud pattern.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Thursday, August 5, 2010 650 am EDT/550 am CDT
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Discussion
Remnant Low Pressure Colin:
The remnant low pressure system that was once Tropical Storm Colin was located about 200 miles north of the Leeward Islands this morning. Unlike yesterday at this time, this system is now tracking northwest at a forward speed of 20 to 25 mph. Satellite imagery indicates some increased organization overnight, however, it looks like it has not closed off a circulation as of yet. It should be noted that even though this is not officially a tropical storm, it is producing tropical storm force winds on this system’s north side and with reconnaissance aircraft going out to investigate it this afternoon, it would not surprise me to see it upgraded to a tropical storm late this afternoon.

The latest hurricane track guidance, dynamical models and global models all seem to agree that Colin will turn northward somewhere along the 67 or 68 West Longitude line and interests in Bermuda should keep an eye on Colin as it may affect you folks this weekend. The intensity guidance seem to indicate that Colin may become a hurricane in 4 to 5 days, however, it seems more likely that it will remain a tropical storm throughout the rest of its life. So, as you can see there have been some significant changes in the forecast track of Colin. The reason for this is that the high pressure system extending from the Atlantic westward into the southern United States really looks like it will break down enough to allow Colin to curve northward and northeastward out into the open Atlantic.

The only impact that Colin will have on the US East Coast will be some high seas, rough seas and possible rip tides this weekend, especially along the Mid-Atlantic coast.


The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Friday morning.

[tolakram]

I'm thinking it clearly has an LLC and they will probably re-activate Colin later this morning.

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[HURAKAN]

I think Colin is back!

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF COLIN...IS ALONG 27N59W TO A 1009
MB LOW NEAR 21N63W MOVING NW AT 17 TO 21 KT. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 59W-64W. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS
LATER TODAY OR ON FRIDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA
LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY.
$$
PAW

[HURAKAN]

569
ABNT20 KNHC 051141
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...A LOW PRESSURE AREA...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT LACKS A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS
LATER TODAY OR ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[KWT]

Oh yeah thats pretty obvious now, getting sheared and fighting for survival still but it could well get upgraded again, I'd guess the NHC may just hold back a little just to make sure it isn't about to be sheared to death again, no harm in waiting another 6hrs due to organisational reason.

Recon will tell the tale though.

[thetruesms]

Hellooooo, shear axis! There does look there's a little something down there on the NW edge of the convection, but sunrise issues are still making it tough to see just how well-defined it is, and apparently surface obs aren't helping, either. They may just wait until recon heads in there to be sure. Of course, the last time I said that, they were putting the finishing touches on a special TWO to upgrade Bonnie

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

After looking at the visible loops, there's no question that it has a LLC. It may or not be "well-defined" and I laugh sometimes at the term because the NHC uses it as they please, just like every umpire has a different strike zone. Sometimes they upgrade systems and the "well-defined" issue is irrelevant.

[Air Force Met]

After looking at the visible loops, there's no question that it has a LLC. It may or not be "well-defined" and I laugh sometimes at the term because the NHC uses it as they please, just like every umpire has a different strike zone. Sometimes they upgrade systems and the "well-defined" issue is irrelevant.

I agree...there is no doubt there is an LLC. It seems pretty well defined to me as well. I think they got the TWO out a few frames too early...

Not a lot of obs in the area...so I can see why those don't show anything. But...I think in the next hour or two, the LLC will be naked. Should be pretty obvious then.



Edited for my bad spelling...

[Aric Dunn]

Its pretty clear that we have a closed circ... I would expect upgrade at 11am... but I guess no rush since recon is going out later..

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 04, 2010080512, , BEST, 0, 230N, 650W, 35, 1008, WV

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[HURAKAN]

LLC

[KWT]

I'm not sure the NHC will upgrade this, sure its got a circulation but the convection is being blown back away again, no real point of them upgrading something only for it to be naked again in 6-12hrs afterwards...but technically it probably is a TS again.

[hurricaneCW]

Yeah I think they should upgrade it back to a TS, it actually looks the best it ever has despite being heavily sheared. At least it has an LLC this time. When is the shear expected to let up, just a small decrease could be enough to allow Colin to ramp up some.