ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Danny had a much stronger LLC. You can see the low cloud spiral around Danny's LLC even on that IR4 image. Colin's LLC is only visible on imagery that shows low clouds better (vis, IR2).

1st advisory was at 1500z ... so, you're saying that this is a more "defined" center compared to Colin.



Colin at the moment.

I mean, if we're going to upgrade sheared systems, then there needs to be a consistency

[Sanibel]

Another naked spiral. Maybe it will do better when it turns its tail towards the shear.

[thetruesms]

Danny had a much stronger LLC. You can see the low cloud spiral around Danny's LLC even on that IR4 image. Colin's LLC is only visible on imagery that shows low clouds better (vis, IR2).

[img]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/1KMSRVIS/2009AL05_1KMSRVIS_200908261515.GIF[img]

1st advisory was at 1500z ... so, you're saying that this is a more "defined" center compared to Colin.

[img]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/1KMSRVIS/2009AL05_1KMSRVIS_200908271225.GIF[img]

Colin at the moment.

I mean, if we're going to upgrade sheared systems, then there needs to be a consistency

In fairness, Danny also had QuickSCAT and recon data that went into that first advisory; Colin cannot have the former and is awaiting the latter.

[HURAKAN]

609
ABNT20 KNHC 051742
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...A LOW PRESSURE AREA...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 20 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED...AND AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO DETERMINE
WHETHER IT HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

LOL, it has become better defined. It hasn't changed, except becoming more exposed, since this morning.

[HURAKAN]

center found

[tolakram]

There appear to be two upper level lows that Colin has to deal with.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

Not sure how it can survive.

[Aric Dunn]

recon found 47kt FL and 39 sfmr... likely a 40kt TS right now..

[Air Force Met]

LOL, it has become better defined. It hasn't changed, except becoming more exposed, since this morning.

They wanted to get it back up to 70% before they named it again. And I agree...all that has happened since the 8AM TWO is the LLC has become naked.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 04, 2010080518, , BEST, 0, 244N, 658W, 35, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[supercane]

center found

Not so sure it's the one in your pic. It's strange that that candidate center was not co-located with satellite center. It seems more likely that a center will be identified to be near the satellite exposed circulation. Also note near TS winds, although a lot of rain flags.

[TheBurn]

[Aric Dunn]

They may even make it 45kts with all the Fl winds at 47kt and 48kts..

[Hurricane]

If this becomes named again will it be Colin or Danielle?

[HURAKAN]

If this becomes named again will it be Colin or Danielle?

Colin

[supercane]

I don't understand them sometimes, maybe they're waiting for RECON, but this system looks as upgradable as TD #3 was this year, as Danny, Erika and Henri last year.

TD #3 definitely did not warrant an upgrade and is not good support in favor of an upgrade. Anyway, I think they'll have enough to upgrade back to TS Colin with the recon data coming in. As for Danny, the LLC seen in the sat pics was more convincing than Colin.

[cycloneye]

If this becomes named again will it be Colin or Danielle?

Colin, that is why we have mantained the Colin threads here.

[HURAKAN]

As for Danny, the LLC seen in the sat pics was more convincing than Colin.

I guess that's in the eye of the beholder, to me they both look the same.

[tolakram]

center found

Not so sure it's the one in your pic. It's strange that that candidate center was not co-located with satellite center. It seems more likely that a center will be identified to be near the satellite exposed circulation. Also note near TS winds, although a lot of rain flags.

The sat pic on google earth is delayed, so the picture is not lining up with reality.

[Macrocane]

There appear to be two upper level lows that Colin has to deal with.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

Not sure how it can survive.

http://a.imageshack.us/img708/1940/wvlp.jpg

That's what I'm wondering too, how it will survive those upper lows? Colin will be ripped apart again if they don't move quickly away from it.