ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008060044
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010080600, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932010
AL, 93, 2010080500, , BEST, 0, 115N, 367W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080506, , BEST, 0, 116N, 362W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080512, , BEST, 0, 119N, 360W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080518, , BEST, 0, 123N, 358W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080600, , BEST, 0, 127N, 358W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[blazess556]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008060044
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010080600, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932010
AL, 93, 2010080500, , BEST, 0, 115N, 367W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080506, , BEST, 0, 116N, 362W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080512, , BEST, 0, 119N, 360W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080518, , BEST, 0, 123N, 358W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080600, , BEST, 0, 127N, 358W, 25, 1009, DB

wow. the activity is surely picking up. and we don't even have a strong positive mjo yet.

[Ivanhater]

This is probably the eastern Atlantic one I'm assuming...If it is, this is likely Danielle soon with great model support.

[Florida1118]

Why didnt they put it on the 8pm TWO?

[RL3AO]

Why didnt they put it on the 8pm TWO?

They did

[HURAKAN]

347
ABNT20 KNHC 060006
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF NICARAGUA AND EASTERN
HONDURAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[KWT]

Yeah it got a 20% on the advisory.

I agree this one probably will be our next TS, been thinking that for a while now based on model support...wouldn't shock me to see it become a hurricane providing it doesn't get too disrupted by the TUTT...

[Florida1118]

Oh. There graphic said they updated it at 8:04 but they must have done that with Colin. Sorry about that.

[CrazyC83]

If it goes south, then I think this should become Danielle and become the next big one.

[Weatherfreak000]

[GeneratorPower]

Like clockwork, it's Stewart who added it to the TWO. He is definately the most fun.

[CrazyC83]

Big unknown here is whether it picks up the ridge right away (i.e. a repeat of the last Danielle) or just dives southward and rides low.

[HURAKAN]

Only a matter of time

[TexasF6]

it looks terrible.

[Cuber]

Like clockwork, it's Stewart who added it to the TWO. He is definately the most fun.

Is Stewart male or female ?

National Hurricane Center Staff
Senior Hurricane Specialists
Lixion Avila, PhD
Jack Beven, PhD
Michael Brennan, PhD
Daniel Brown – Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM)
Richard Pasch, PhD
Stacy R. Stewart

Moderators ... my apologies that this is off topic ... deletion will be understood

[HURAKAN]

Male

[supercane]

Is Stewart male or female ?

Male. See NHC's statement about his return from Iraq a while ago:

NHC Welcomes Back Stacy Stewart: Navy Reservist served in Iraq as part of troop surge

[South Texas Storms]

are the steering currents not right for a u.s. landfall this season? it doesn't look like it so far.

[RL3AO]

are the steering currents not right for a u.s. landfall this season? it doesn't look like it so far.

If Bastardi is right, they will be in about 10 to 15 days when the ridge moves from the SE US to the NE US/SE Canada.

[South Texas Storms]

where did you read/watch that? i wanna see it!