ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[artist]

vortex message -

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 20:55:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
EXTRAP SLP 1005 MB FOUND 14NM AWAY FROM FL CENTER IN NE QUAD
;

[tolakram]

One of the lats visible shots of Colin. Nice glow.

[funster]

The Update Statement on the NHC site currently goes to a 2009 storm: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2333.shtml

They fixed it!

[cycloneye]

Yes!!, the NHC site is up again.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[RL3AO]

SINCE A FORECAST INTENSITY OF 50 KT WAS NOT
EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL 48 HOURS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A
SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS REQUIRED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY AND TO
ADJUST THE INTENSITY FORECAST UPWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

Sounds like there is a rule when it comes to special advisories.

[cycloneye]

The best track site is also back.

00z Best Track

AL, 04, 2010080600, , BEST, 0, 256N, 663W, 50, 1005, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Ivanhater]

Do they expect to reach hurricane status now?

[KWT]

Probably next advisory will show they expect Colin to become a hurricane I'd imagine...

The little storm that dared to dream...

[HURAKAN]

05/2345 UTC 25.8N 66.5W T2.5/2.5 COLIN -- Atlantic

Dvorak doesn't do well with sheared systems

[supercane]

Do they expect to reach hurricane status now?

Not yet, but close:

000
WTNT44 KNHC 060001
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
730 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010

...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO PRIMARILY UPDATE THE
INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECASTS.

SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM COLIN
REPORTED A 600-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 71 KT ABOUT 14 NMI NORTHEAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1005
MB WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF
THESE VALUES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL MESOVORTEX LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
LARGER-SCALE WIND FIELD. FOR THIS REASON...THE INTENSITY WAS
INITIALIZED AT 40 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH NEARBY SFMR WINDS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE TIME OF THAT RECON REPORT...DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF COLIN HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP CLOSER
TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH JUSTIFIES INCREASING
THE INTENSITY TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS. SINCE A FORECAST INTENSITY OF 50 KT WAS NOT
EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL 48 HOURS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A
SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS REQUIRED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY AND TO
ADJUST THE INTENSITY FORECAST UPWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ALSO...DROPSONDE DATA INDICATES AN EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND
RADII IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WAS NECESSARY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING
WERE MADE.

INTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE NHC WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED
AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2330Z 25.6N 66.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 26.6N 67.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 28.1N 67.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 29.6N 67.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 31.3N 67.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 36.0N 65.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 40.0N 61.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 49.0N 48.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[KWT]

They will probably further increase the winds a little probably in the next advisory I'd imagine.

I suppose Colin justifies being a 'real system' now then!

[CrazyC83]

Without further Recon, I wouldn't expect any increase in the intensity unless convection clearly develops over the LLC.

[supercane]

Agree that increase in intensity forecast likely, although probs for hurricane in 24 hr not much higher looking at prob table.

[caribepr]

Schmazin' - wait around awhile (a whole day) and wade through all the 'bring out the bones', and wa la, cruisin' toward a hurricane...of course I'm only taking that tone because it looks to be, hopefully, a land missing bundle of weather. I like that in a storm. Especially if it really does miss Bermuda and Nova Scotia...

[cycloneye]

Updated 00z Best Track

AL, 04, 2010080600, , BEST, 0, 256N, 663W, 50, 1005, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[supercane]

Updated 00z Best Track

AL, 04, 2010080600, , BEST, 0, 256N, 663W, 50, 1005, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Don't see the difference between this and what you had a few posts earlier.

[cycloneye]

Updated 00z Best Track

AL, 04, 2010080600, , BEST, 0, 256N, 663W, 50, 1005, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Don't see the difference between this and what you had a few posts earlier.

Even they updated the models but as you said nothing new. Maybe a glitch.

[supercane]

From weather.gov:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 060259
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010

...COLIN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 66.6W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
<snip>

Still not forecast to be a hurricane. From discussion:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 26.3N 66.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 27.4N 66.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 29.1N 67.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 30.7N 66.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 32.6N 66.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 37.2N 63.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 43.0N 57.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 50.5N 45.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[HURAKAN]

very exposed

[Riptide]

http://img842.imageshack.us/img842/9224/ir2q.jpg

very exposed

It looked like the LLC had jogged WNW, Colin's forward speed has definately decreased.