ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

Well, my prediction is still alive at least. I just hope I am at the end of this season. I wonder if the first two weeks will give us some more fishes to lull everyone in the U.S. into a false sense of security. I just can not see this storm making the trek all the way across if it encounters similar shear to that which zapped Colin.

[RL3AO]

where did you read/watch that? i wanna see it!

its on the pro site. Basically his theory is the biggest seasons US happen when the highest 500mb height anomaly's are over the NE US/Southern Canada which the ensemble models are forecasting in 10 to 15 days.

[South Texas Storms]

would those steering currents be supportive of a gulf-landfalling storm?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[wxman57]

would those steering currents be supportive of a gulf-landfalling storm?

Yes, but not this invest. Looks like it has a clear shot to track off into the open Atlantic.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

After doing some analysis, it seems to me that 93L will become Danielle. However, this looks like a prime candidate for a recurvature.

[Macrocane]

where did you read/watch that? i wanna see it!

He explains that on this video that was on the public site of Accuweather:

http://www.accuweather.com/video/73146202001/no-changes-to-my-hurricane-idea.asp

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[hurricaneCW]

Are any of these storms not going to recurve. I thought this was moderate la nina. All these early recurves of pathetic TS curving into the TUTT is pathetic.

[Ptarmigan]

If conditions are good, it could be Danielle. I think its path could change over time. If it was a fish storm, the ACE would go up.

[RL3AO]

Are any of these storms not going to recurve. I thought this was moderate la nina. All these early recurves of pathetic TS curving into the TUTT is pathetic.

Sorry a destructive tropical cyclone hasn't hit the US yet to excite you.

[ConvergenceZone]

After doing some analysis, it seems to me that 93L will become Danielle. However, this looks like a prime candidate for a recurvature.

I think we are all pretty confident that 93L is going to recurve. I think the quest is whether the one behind it will recurve. If high pressure builds in after 93L recruves, then the wave behind it might be pushed westward.

[fci]

Are any of these storms not going to recurve. I thought this was moderate la nina. All these early recurves of pathetic TS curving into the TUTT is pathetic.

Well, I love recurves. Not at all pathetic to me!

[cycloneye]

Fish cyclones are the best to track as you can look at the structure in detail and see what mother nature offers.

[supercane]

Map made from CIMSS TCTrak with shear overlay:

[ConvergenceZone]

Are any of these storms not going to recurve. I thought this was moderate la nina. All these early recurves of pathetic TS curving into the TUTT is pathetic.

Well, I love recurves. Not at all pathetic to me!

I love recurves if they travel west for awhile and develop before the recurve. It just seems like once they start recurving they start
moving ahead so quickly because they get up on the ULL etc, that they lose all of their structure and beauty.

Unfortunately this suppose to be recurving fairly quickly, so there isn't going to be much to look at while it races northwest or north north west...

[Weatherfreak000]

Re-Firing nicely tonight. Definitely liking this area as well.


Tropics coming alive tonight. If we can get Danielle from one of these two waves we'd be looking strong still number wise and definitely ahead of 2004.

[South Texas Storms]

where did you read/watch that? i wanna see it!

He explains that on this video that was on the public site of Accuweather:

http://www.accuweather.com/video/73146202001/no-changes-to-my-hurricane-idea.asp

thanks. im not giving up on the season yet or calling it a bust thanks to joe. the next couples of months look exciting!

[hurricaneCW]

I think the true measure of an active season is by its ACE, not # of storms generated. We can have 20 weak, recurving TS, but with an ACE below 100, it's a quiet season. Plus this one is going out to sea instantly so the best we see is another Bonnie/Colin type storm, which is a shame because I really thought Danielle would be the big one.

[Kingarabian]

I think the true measure of an active season is by its ACE, not # of storms generated. We can have 20 weak, recurving TS, but with an ACE below 100, it's a quiet season. Plus this one is going out to sea instantly so the best we see is another Bonnie/Colin type storm, which is a shame because I really thought Danielle would be the big one.

So you want a big one to not re-curve?