ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[ROCK]

this area has 2 vortices working against it....one close to Jam and the other seemly near CA....both in mid levels....not enough time with plenty of heat potential out there.....But I will say when these start to stick (and they will) we are going to have some monsters in the carib and GOM.....heat potential has remained virtually untouched / untapped this year....

[cperez1594]

I dont know if it is me but it seems to have gain some latitude. It is not going west anymore. maybe a wnw or nw. I can see some minor rotation but maybe just a MLC. Hmm, has a chance because it will be over water a little more longer then previous thought.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 92, 2010080518, , BEST, 0, 140N, 808W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Going strait westward.

[cperez1594]

This afternoon from Brownsville AFD....

.LONG TERM...500 MB RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE CONUS REGION IN THE 3 TO 7 DAY RANGE MAINTAINING
THE SUMMER TIME PATTERN. HOWEVER SOME WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL PUSH WEST TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN ADDITION TO THIS A SLUG OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
PUSH NORTHWEST OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIB REACHING NEAR THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE FROM LATE MON THROUGH WED. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
USUAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL HEATING EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
BETTER CON CHCS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN
THE 10 TO 30 % RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE GFS MEX TEMPS AND POPS LOOKS PRETTY STABLE WHILE CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO LOOKS DECENT. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE
TOO MUCH FROM THE GFS MEX TRENDS.

[KWT]

The system has a somewhat broad circulation from the looks of things BUT I think its a good deal further north of 14N right now, I'd place any center probably aroiund 15N myself, perhaps even more to the north...

Just not got enough time....

[HURAKAN]

HWRF

[cperez1594]

The system has a somewhat broad circulation from the looks of things BUT I think its a good deal further north of 14N right now, I'd place any center probably aroiund 15N myself, perhaps even more to the north...

Just not got enough time....

I am seeing that as well. Might miss the CA and skirt the land. It will have more time over water if that is the case

[KWT]

Yeah I think there is certainly a chance it just grazes to the north of the coast before heading into Belize...

The HWRF would be amazing but highly unlikely I feel.

[HURAKAN]

Shear certainly not a problem

[KWT]

Nah shear isn't really the problem, just couldn't hold the low level convergence long enough for often enough get itself going.

[lrak]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

South of Jamaica looks interesting.

[KWT]

Decent convection there, that loop also shows the turning with the wave is stronger on the southern side which looks like its about to head inland fairly soon.

[HURAKAN]

347
ABNT20 KNHC 060006
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF NICARAGUA AND EASTERN
HONDURAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[lrak]

I'm -removed- a perfect southern BOC swell and HURAKAN had to rub that THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. We're burning boards around here hoping for the magic, its blue flat and HOT. Is 92L at least going to provide a bit of rain next week? I know some farmers that still haven't picked their cotton, and they're hoping no rain until after August.

[ConvergenceZone]

This system is over, done with.......What a teasing waste it was.

[Sanibel]

Naked wave. EPAC probably stole its thunder.

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al922010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008060426
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2010, DB, O, 2010080300, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922010
AL, 92, 2010080300, , BEST, 0, 123N, 624W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010080306, , BEST, 0, 127N, 645W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010080312, , BEST, 0, 130N, 664W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010080318, , BEST, 0, 134N, 680W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010080400, , BEST, 0, 137N, 695W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 90, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2010080406, , BEST, 0, 139N, 710W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 100, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2010080412, , BEST, 0, 140N, 724W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 100, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2010080418, , BEST, 0, 140N, 739W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 100, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2010080500, , BEST, 0, 140N, 758W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010080506, , BEST, 0, 140N, 777W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010080512, , BEST, 0, 140N, 793W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010080518, , BEST, 0, 140N, 808W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[blazess556]

Convergence, divergence and an anticyclone have all increased over 92L. too bad the vorticity is going to move into land.

[lrak]

Its still got a chance and I think its moving a little north of due west.

nice deep reds this morning.


The visible shows all kinds of inflow, thats good right? I don't see any outflow boundaries.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

[HURAKAN]

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