CSU bi-weekly forecasts (Aug 4-17: Above average ACE)

[clfenwi]

Along with their updated season forecast, the CSU forecast team has started issuing their two week forecasts. Their two week forecasts make a prediction of activity relative to climatological Accumulated Cyclone Energy, with <70% of norm being "below-average, 70%-130% of norm being "average", and >130% "above average".

Their forecast for August 4-17 calls for above average activity (i.e. more than 10 units of ACE).

Driving factors for this forecast were the possible re-development of Colin, models "hinting at
development in the tropical Atlantic in about one week", and their overall season forecast of above average activity.

[KWT]

Makes perfect sense to me really, Colin does look likely to redevelop and the models are pretty keen on at least something forming from the CV wave as well...

[supercane]

Based on the current ACTF data and the current NHC forecast, Colin could contribute as much as about 6.5 kt^2 of ACE. Danielle forming from 93L would likely be enough to make CSU's forecast, as long as it's not like Bonnie (or Colin before its comeback).

[supercane]

Thought he would easily meet this a few days ago, but at the halfway mark, Colin never really intensified as forecast, 93L may come and go without being named, and 94L not getting off to a good start.

[clfenwi]

Just over half-way through the forecast period and this is looking like a bust. Colin contributed about 1.7 units during the portion of his lifespan that crossed into the time period.

It would take a 55 knot tropical storm persisting for the balance of the period (or a storm compensating shorter duration with greater strength) to get to 10 units.

4.9 units is the threshold for "average activity". It is plausible that ACE could fall short of that and make the forecast a double bust.

[Frank2]

Thought a bump of this topic would make for interesting reading - and not to make the CSU folks look bad, but it does show how forecasters are on very shaky ground when saying "...we expect this to happen"...

The 2009 Vortex2 experiment was a great example - they'd never guess that in five weeks of chasing they'd only find 1 tornado, and that was only a few days before the experiment ended (things were busier for them this year)...

What's the old saying - "Meteorology is an inexact science", and the pioneers of meteorology understood that but the folks of today seem to be having a hard time accepting that that fact does not change, even with or because of technology...

Even the NWS has changed their short-term forecasts to sometimes include the EXACT time and place of certain weather events ("Showers in South Dade should diminish after 9:30 a.m...."), but that courts arrogance when we begin to think we know exactly what will happen and when...

As the child in the Sea World commercial says, "I'd like to think there is still mystery in the world", and so true, because if the day comes when we believe that we know everything - that might be the day when the unexpected will happen, and besides, in mystery (not mystery as in October 31, but mystery as in the unknowns of God's nature) comes the enjoyment of seeing things happen that we can't understand or comprehend, but are actually there for our admiration and fasination...

As Doc Brown would say, "Heavy" (lol)...

Frank

[cycloneye]

It will be very interesting to read tommorows 2 week forecast and how they discuss their bust.