ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[Macrocane]

Based on the models I think it could weaken a little again maybe to 40 kt or 35 kt but after 24 hours it should intensify, let's see if D-max help to increase the convection again.

[supercane]

SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-25 KT CONTINUES TO HINDER
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF COLIN...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[supercane]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 060533
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
200 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010

...COLIN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 67.1W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

<snip>

[supercane]

Presume weaking back down to 45 kt (50 mph) is based on poorer satellite presentation.

[supercane]

SSD's Dvorak classification down:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
06/0545 UTC 26.4N 67.3W T1.5/2.5 COLIN
05/2345 UTC 25.8N 66.5W T2.5/2.5 COLIN

[supercane]

Best track at 06Z from ATCF site:

AL, 04, 2010080606, , BEST, 0, 264N, 673W, 40, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 0, 0, 1012, 140, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, COLIN, M,
AL, 04, 2010080600, , BEST, 0, 257N, 666W, 50, 1005, TS, 50, NEQ, 25, 25, 0, 0, 1013, 140, 25, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, COLIN, M,

[supercane]

exposed circulation and waning convection:



also looks to be somewhat west of forecast track.

[BrianD]

I wouldn't write him off just yet I've known a few colins and they always seem to come back to borrow sugar, and yes they do like fishing so hopefully he's the same....

[supercane]

Based on best track and degraded sheared satellite appearance expect 9Z advisory to have Colin at 40 kt (45 mph) unless morning vis shows an improvement. Otherwise will await recon tomorrow.

[supercane]

I wouldn't write him off just yet I've known a few colins and they always seem to come back to borrow sugar, and yes they do like fishing so hopefully he's the same....

Don't get the borrowing sugar reference?

[MGC]

Convection has disapeared near Colins center tonight. Looks like a naked swirl on the shortwave IR....I don't expect anything until the shear lets up.......MGC

[Brent]

Wow... this thing needs a doctor stat.

[KWT]

This is what shear can do, it can build you up in certain solutions then just strip you down to nearly nothing a few hours later....

Unless the shear becomes more divergent over the center, weakening shall continue. Not exactly what I was expecting when I went to bed!

[HurrMark]

Still expected to be near hurricane strength at its peak through baroclinic intensification. Wouldn't surprise me...as we saw yesterday, when the environment is conducive, these things can ramp up at a good clip.

[tolakram]

The llc is starting to move east toward the convection.

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8

[Cyclone1]

Has it jogged due-east? That loops gives that impression.

[ravyrn]

Has it jogged due-east? That loops gives that impression.

It looks slightly north of due east. Despite it being exposed, that llc looks beautiful in the vis loop. Hopefully the convection won't manage to wrap around it. The shear is still holding it at bay. I noticed some convection was trying to develop on the north side of the llc and its still getting blown away which is a good sign for Bermuda.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Looking at satellite loops it is noted that the circulation of Colin has begun to slide eastward under the new convective bursts, this should help to propel some slight intensification of Colin as it moves generally northward.

[TheBurn]