ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[Frank2]

True, true - I was at my Wilma hotel in Central Florida for 10 days before going home was a reasonable decision (for lack of power, water and gasoline on the other end), so know exactly what you mean...

And thanks, Portastorm (I like that handle) for setting us straight, since as you said we all are here for different reasons (or a combination of reasons) - leave it to the man from Texas to give us what-for (lol)...

Frank

[mvtrucking]

Fish cyclones are the best to track as you can look at the structure in detail and see what mother nature offers.

Absolutely, and no one usually loses life, limb or property. Much better scenario IMO.

[Sanibel]

that afternoon I happened to be at a local business when a very tough gang-type fella in front of me was saying how nervous he was at the thought of Floyd (perhaps an Andrew survivor) so it's no easy situation for anyone...

(Off-Topic) The theme of a classic Bogart movie Key Largo. Rocco is a big, bad gangster killer but he's no match for the hurricane that hits the Keys while he's holed-up in Lionel Barrymore's hotel. Barrymore recounts the great storm that swept Matacumbe Key with 12 feet of surge and Rocco gets nervous. Of course he's talking about the great Labor Day storm that happened just a few years earlier. Great movie.

[thetruesms]

Wow, ASCAT didn't completely miss for once Looks like it's analyzing a broad circulation, but it's still got a lot of work to do

[supercane]

93L invest location marked with I in this satellite, obs, shear map made from UW-CIMSS TCTrack.

[cycloneye]

Mantains at 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 675 MILES
WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY WELL-ORGANIZED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

That far north seems like an error to me

[HURAKAN]

Slowly getting better organized

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 93, 2010080618, , BEST, 0, 160N, 360W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[HURAKAN]

Much stronger vorticity

[Aric Dunn]

This system has come a long way since last night and even from this morning. Clearly its beginning to develop a LLC it broad still but the convection that is starting fire is a sign that we are getting convergence and the the circ is tightening up. Tomorrow should be the day we go to waiting for the NHC to upgrade this is of course if convection continues to increase overnight..

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[cycloneye]

SSD has not put a floater yet but it seems from the distance that 93L is comming together.

[MGC]

Looks to be slowly organizing.....TD perhaps by Sunday?......MGC

[cycloneye]

We got the SSD floater!!

It's comming together as I said earlier.

[wx247]

Ok, I definitely think the TPC is too far north unless this thing books it due north soon.

[KWT]

Yep its getting there bit by bit, note how the Vort is still stretched out though, it needs to condense a little bit but its got plenty of time to do so.

Probably will be our next TD unless 92L really does blow up in the next 12hrs or so...I'd go with 50% now with this.

A nice fish storm hopefully, would be nice to get a hurricane out of this.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

I'm not in agreement with the quick recurvature shown on the model plots as they usually under-do the intensity of the subtropical ridge and have a poleward bias. Yes, 93L will likely move NW at first but may begin a subtle turn towards the WNW/W as time progresses. Looking at updated PSU forecasted steering the recurvature will likely begin west of 55W, likely to pass far east of Bermuda. I'm still holding strong that this will become Danielle, probably going to end up as a nice big ACE contributor.

[cycloneye]

By looking at recent images,I go with 50% at 8 PM TWO.

[KWT]

What is interesting is the 12z GFS takes this further west, gets to nearly 60W before recurving...

Actually thats not a good thing for this system, would be better for it to recurve early before it gets too close to that TUTT...see what happened to Colin when you get too close to the TUTT!

Recurving early probably is the difference between this making a hurricane or not IMO.