EPAC: Ex ESTELLE

[HURAKAN]

EP, 07, 2010080600, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1017W, 30, 1004, TD

TD 7E is an hour

[supercane]

And now officially. From weather.gov (still not on NHC site):

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 060258
TCMEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.1W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.1W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 101.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.4N 103.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.0N 105.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.7N 106.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.7N 110.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 20.7N 113.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 102.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

[supercane]

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE

[supercane]

SSD's Dvorak classification unchanged, meaning 7-E likely to stay a TD at 9Z update:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
06/0545 UTC 16.0N 102.7W T2.5/2.5 07E
05/2345 UTC 15.8N 101.6W T2.5/2.5 99E

[somethingfunny]

Is this the same system that was tracked across the Atlantic here? (the wave that came before 92L)

[KWT]

Forecasted to get upto 60kts, much depends on whether any easterly shear burst decides to occur over this system or not.

[supercane]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 061449
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010

...DEPRESSION NEAR STORM STRENGTH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 104.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[supercane]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 061450
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010

THERE HAS BEEN INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS WITH MORE PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES ON THE SOUTH AND
EAST SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION. WITHOUT ANY RECENT MICROWAVE DATA TO
CONFIRM THE INITIAL POSITION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT
30 KT...A BLEND OF THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB. HOWEVER
THIS SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM...ESPECIALLY IF THE
CENTER IS FARTHER NORTH. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH LOW
SHEAR AND WARM WATER LIKELY. IT IS A LITTLE PUZZLING WHY THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING GIVEN THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT SEE A REASON TO
CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MUCH...AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS THE SAME AS PREVIOUS...290/9...
ALTHOUGH THIS IS PRETTY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF MICROWAVE
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WEAK RIDGING OVER MEXICO
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHETHER THE CYCLONE WOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO A BREAK
IN THE RIDGE...OR CONTINUE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AT THAT TIME.
GENERALLY THE GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...WHILE THE
HWRF/GFDL AND THE BAMS GUIDANCE ARE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME...WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN 6
HOURS AGO. THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE
SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 16.6N 104.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 17.1N 105.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 17.8N 107.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 18.3N 108.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 18.8N 109.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 19.5N 111.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 20.0N 113.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[supercane]

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 061449
TCMEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 104.0W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 104.0W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.1N 105.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.8N 107.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.3N 108.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.8N 109.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 20.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 104.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[supercane]

Looks close to being Estelle:

[clfenwi]

Looks like some new piece of data came in to not only upgrade this depression but revise best track as well. Re-reading the discussion, perhaps microwave imagery that showed the center further north than previously thought.

EP, 07, 2010080612, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1035W, 35, 1003, TS,
EP, 07, 2010080618, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1045W, 35, 1003, TS,

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 062034
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010

AFTER A RATHER LONG...PERHAPS UNPRECEDENTED...BREAK IN TROPICAL
STORM ACTIVITY IN THE HEART OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...
ESTELLE HAS FORMED. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A CDO-TYPE PATTERN
FORMING NEAR THE CENTER ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE CURVED
BANDS. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH AGENCIES ARE 35 KT...AND
THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO GIVEN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT
SHEAR...UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND RATHER WARM WATERS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN BEFORE...BUT NONE OF THEM MAKE
ESTELLE A HURRICANE. THE NHC FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD...AND
REMAINS NEAR OR ABOVE THE GUIDANCE.

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES HELPED SET THE INITIAL MOTION AT
290/10. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE
TO RIDGING OVER MEXICO. THERE REMAINS A SPLIT IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL/HWRF/GFDN MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FARTHER SOUTH...SHOWING A SHALLOWER SYSTEM THAT
SLOWS DOWN AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN LARGE-SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF MEXICO. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS BEFORE IT REACHES THE BREAK...A SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS
ANTICIPATED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT
DIRECTION. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER...AT THE
LONGER-RANGES OF THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 17.2N 105.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 17.7N 106.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 18.2N 107.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 18.6N 109.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 19.0N 110.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 19.5N 111.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 19.5N 112.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 11/1800Z 19.5N 113.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[KWT]

This one is looking good right now, whilst easterly shear is a possible problem, I think this one probably will indeed become a strong TS...

[Macrocane]

Finally 2 months after Darby the EPAC has its 5 named storm.

[KWT]

Its amazing given how long it took to get the E storm in the EPAC, esp given how explosive the first few weeks of June was.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

EP, 07, 2010080700, , BEST, 0, 172N, 1058W, 45, 1000, TS


Up to 45kts.

[KWT]

Quite a quick strengthening from the 35kts it was before when it was upgraded, but I'm not surprised because it looks pretty good right now. I reckon this one may have a shot at being a hurricane.

[supercane]

Code: Select all

256   
WHXX01 KMIA 070051 
CHGE77 
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0051 UTC SAT AUG 7 2010 
   
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. 
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. 
   
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR 
   
TROPICAL CYCLONE ESTELLE (EP072010) 20100807 0000 UTC 
   
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS... 
        100807  0000   100807  1200   100808  0000   100808  1200 
   
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 
BAMS    17.2N 105.8W   17.7N 107.1W   18.2N 108.5W   18.5N 109.9W 
BAMD    17.2N 105.8W   18.0N 107.2W   18.9N 108.7W   20.0N 110.3W 
BAMM    17.2N 105.8W   17.8N 107.4W   18.7N 109.0W   19.4N 110.6W 
LBAR    17.2N 105.8W   18.0N 107.7W   19.3N 109.7W   20.7N 111.4W 
SHIP        45KTS          53KTS          58KTS          59KTS 
DSHP        45KTS          53KTS          58KTS          59KTS 
   
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS... 
        100809  0000   100810  0000   100811  0000   100812  0000 
   
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 
BAMS    18.9N 111.6W   19.4N 115.2W   19.9N 118.8W   19.5N 121.9W 
BAMD    21.3N 112.1W   25.1N 114.6W   29.8N 113.6W   31.8N 111.6W 
BAMM    20.3N 112.6W   22.8N 116.4W   26.6N 118.3W   31.0N 118.0W 
LBAR    22.6N 112.9W   27.3N 114.2W   33.4N 112.5W   36.4N 108.2W 
SHIP        57KTS          45KTS          33KTS          24KTS 
DSHP        57KTS          45KTS          33KTS          24KTS 
   
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... 
LATCUR =  17.2N LONCUR = 105.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  11KT 
LATM12 =  16.6N LONM12 = 103.5W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 =  10KT 
LATM24 =  15.8N LONM24 = 101.7W 
WNDCUR =   45KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   35KT 
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   M 
RD34NE =   45NM RD34SE =   45NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  45NM 
   
$$ 
NNNN 

                    *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *     ESTELLE  EP072010  08/07/10  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    45    49    53    56    58    59    57    52    45    38    33    28    24
V (KT) LAND       45    49    53    56    58    59    57    52    45    38    33    28    24
V (KT) LGE mod    45    49    53    55    57    56    52    47    41    36    32    28    25

SHEAR (KT)         5     4     5     2     7    10    12    16    16    19    21    19    17
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1    -1    -1    -1    -2    -1     0     0     1     3     1     3     0
SHEAR DIR        110   141   191   185   116   149   151   157   140   130   129   125   130
SST (C)         28.5  28.1  27.6  27.1  26.7  26.1  25.7  25.6  25.6  25.7  25.8  25.8  25.7
POT. INT. (KT)   149   145   139   133   129   122   118   116   116   116   118   118   117
200 MB T (C)   -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -51.3 -50.8
TH_E DEV (C)       9     7     6     7     6     4     4     2     1     1     0     0     0
700-500 MB RH     74    74    74    73    72    71    68    70    70    73    74    76    76
GFS VTEX (KT)      0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    49    60    55    51    55    40    45    50    57    56    82    92   112
200 MB DIV        51    45    38    54    53    31    37    11    26    39    44    52    37
LAND (KM)        250   272   316   357   397   473   441   439   455   482   515   548   583
LAT (DEG N)     17.2  17.5  17.7  18.0  18.2  18.6  19.0  19.2  19.3  19.3  19.2  19.2  19.3
LONG(DEG W)    105.8 106.6 107.4 108.1 108.7 109.8 110.8 111.5 112.1 112.6 113.0 113.5 114.1
STM SPEED (KT)    10     8     8     7     6     5     5     3     3     2     2     2     3
HEAT CONTENT      25    20     7     9     8     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11      CX,CY: -10/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  35            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  402  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  12.2 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  79.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   6.   5.   4.   3.   2.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   3.   4.   5.   6.   5.   4.   3.   1.  -1.  -2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  PERSISTENCE            2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -8. -10. -12. -13.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -3.  -3.  -4.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           4.   8.  11.  13.  14.  12.   7.   0.  -7. -12. -17. -21.

   ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072010    ESTELLE 08/07/10  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  10.0 Range:-20.0 to  35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   4.9 Range: 15.2 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  48.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  94.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.5
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  73.4 Range: 64.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  12.2 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.1
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  13.8 Range:  0.0 to  67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.2
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    33% is   2.8 times the sample mean(11.8%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    26% is   3.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    22% is   3.9 times the sample mean( 5.7%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    14% is   3.5 times the sample mean( 4.1%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072010    ESTELLE 08/07/10  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 070248
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010

THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEALED SEVERAL CURVED
BANDS AND A DEVELOPING CDO. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB
HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.
ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
WARM WATER FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED. THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CYCLONE
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AND SO DOES THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST. AFTER 48 HOURS...ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER
WATER AND STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN.

ESTELLE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE
SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AS IT
APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. ONCE ESTELLE WEAKENS AND BECOME
A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT WILL LIKELY TURN WESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN EVEN
MORE. SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL TURN THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATION...BUT FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 17.2N 106.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 17.8N 107.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 18.3N 109.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 18.8N 110.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 19.1N 111.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 19.3N 112.2W 40 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 19.5N 113.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 12/0000Z 19.5N 114.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN