WPAC: Ex DIANMU

[KWT]

Yeah I'd probably be inclined to now agree this area is worth watching, for the first time we have strong convection over the region thats being watched. Certainly looks like some turning with it.

[StormingB81]

We have been watching it Okinawa. Yesterday it was windy..we had like 25-30 mph sustained winds I almost blew away....lol

[StormingB81]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif


This map..is this showing that this storm may start heading to the north?

[KWT]

ECM is very interesting, takes it near due north and itsn't that far away from S.Korea.

Can't be often that S.Korea gets hit, but I'm not too good with the climo of the WPAC?

[StormingB81]

ECM is very interesting, takes it near due north and itsn't that far away from S.Korea.

Can't be often that S.Korea gets hit, but I'm not too good with the climo of the WPAC?

well it wil go through Japan first so we would have to see how strong it gets and how much it would weaken over japan IF it took that track

[KWT]

The ECM takes it due north missing Japan totally and heading into the Gulf between S.Korea and China.

[StormingB81]

96 or 98? maybe we looking at 2 different things

[StormingB81]

From the Phillipines Website...I wont make the same mistake..I will wait for JMA and JTWC to Jump on..

96w is now a Tropical Depression Ester

LPA 96W is now a Tropical Depression (ESTER)...moving closer towards Extreme Northern Luzon. This system will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon Rains (aka. Habagat) across the Philippines becoming more frequent over Metro Manila, Mindoro, Western Luzon, Western Bicol, Palawan, Sulu Sea, Western Visayas and Western Mindanao. Click here to view the T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis.

The 48-hour Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential for LPA 96W
is now 100%.

[KWT]

96W:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Probably got a very good shot of strengtheing slowly now.

[StormingB81]

I looks like it would hit Okinawa

[supercane]

From PAGASA website:

Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWO
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "ESTER"
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Saturday, 07 August 2010
Tropical Depression Ester has maintained its strength as it moves towards Cagayan area.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 190 kms Southeast of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 18.9°N, 123.0°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 45 kph near the center
Movement: West at 22 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Sunday morning:
420 km West Southwest of Basco, Batanes or
260 km Westnorthwest of Laoag City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS # Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds) Cagayan
Apayao
Kalinga
Abra
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Northern Isabela
Batanes
Babuyan Island
Calayan Island None None

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 and areas over the western sections of Central and Southern Luzon and Western Visayas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.

[supercane]

[supercane]

[StormingB81]

so they got it going near the top of PI

[Typhoon10]

I think Ester is likely and like before, more likely to take a W track and probably end up West of HK again. This could quickly develop.

Whats that massive lump already in the SCS, another LPA?

[KWT]

Thats looking quite decent right now to be honest. quite a difference track to what the ECM is suggesting which is stalling it out then lift it out to the north.

[StormingB81]

we shall see....how strogn wil lit be near okinawa IF it heads this way what is the forcast calling for/

[Chacor]

Convection looks really, really good. Might we get something out of this? We shall see...

[StormingB81]

WHere you from Chacor?

[StormingB81]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif

Looks like they have the storm going north