ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[chzzdekr81]

Stays at 10%
ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE...PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS
SYSTEM COULD GAIN SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION BEFORE MOVING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[chzzdekr81]

Should have at least gone up to 20%...

[RL3AO]

I don't have a problem with it. It will probably be over land until 36 hours or so.

[HURAKAN]

They're the experts ... lets see what happens ... I guess the satellite images are just too good to be true

Convection is weakening, which is expected during D-min

[KWT]

Whilst I did expect them to go higher they are right in that there really are no signs of anything at the lower levels...thats been 92Ls problem for a while now, been looking good at the mid levels but the lower level has little support.

[Ivanhater]

[HURAKAN]

Yucatan could help 92L tighten up a bit

[KWT]

I'm thinking something similar, it could well help to focus the LL turning a little which is absent right now. I've seen that happen numerous times and when they emerge they tend to develop usually.

[srainhoutx]

Alex showed that the YP is not always a storm killer. Deep convection often fires nightly across that region.

[supercane]

Low shear environment, underneath a upper level anticyclone, but no evidence of surface circ

[tailgater]

I've been at work all day and come back to what looks like TD or TS in the making.
92L sure has a lot of flip flopper's, you know who you are.
One thing is for sure it's never had much in the way of structure and probably still doesn't at the surface and it looks like the cloud tops are warming quickly right now so it's wait till tomorrow again. I didn't see any of the models showing this flare up today so I'm not gonna put much stock into what they are saying for tomorrow I'll just watch and try to learn a little more. Maybe it will bring some swells for you know you.

[Dean4Storms]

I give it a 100% chance of running out of water and time!

[MiamiHurricanes10]

92L looking great on satellite...however not much is going on at the surface. PSU 925mb vorticity suggests that the vort max (which is rather weak) is off of the Honduras coast, not a great place for organization. However, I've been monitoring SSD shortwave satellite loops and it seems to me that the 500mb circulation near 17.5N 85.0W is trying to work its way down to the lower levels and consequently the surface. We'll have to see how this goes especially with favorable conditions aloft. In my opinion it will need to be at least one more day over water for further organization to occur. Currently I give this area a medium chance of turning into a tropical depression.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Convection waning. I'm not surprised. Why you may ask? Diurnal variations play a role in cyclones, especially with the ones that lack a well-defined circulation. But that isn't the main factor. Divergence aloft isn't too awfully strong, due to this pressures at the surface remain high, since pressures are high the atmosphere doesn't correspond with lower level convergence because pressures need to be low for that to happen. We shall see.

[KWT]

Yeah this is certainly running out of time, if it had a stronger low level vort then it'd probably end up developing given the current set-up it has aloft, the mid level stuff is real strong but it just goes to show these things need most of the thins going for it.

I think it still has a reasonable chance in the BoC providing it makes it there....going to be an interesting 72hrs coming up down here. Synoptics probably argue for some latitude gain but will it be enough.

[HURAKAN]

chances increased

[littlevince]

Good anticyclonic outflow, nice inflow from south and east, but nothing on the west side.
Anyway, i was surprised with this today, so I made this video loop:

(Watch in HD / Fullscreen)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RI2ijHRRYfY&hd=1

[LaBreeze]

This is headed for the Yucatan, BOC, and Mex. correct? How certain is this movement? Is the high pressure here in the South going to hold strong and block?

[vbhoutex]

This is headed for the Yucatan, BOC, and Mex. correct? How certain is this movement? Is the high pressure here in the South going to hold strong and block?

Nothing is ever set in stone in the tropics, but current predictions do indicate that is the case.

[bahamaswx]

Good anticyclonic outflow, nice inflow from south and east, but nothing on the west side.

Exactly. This will refire.