ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

latest

[supercane]

Not looking too bad on the MW imagery, with slight hints of incipient banding?

[cycloneye]

I wonder if the system is taking time to organize because is embedded in a monsoon type gyre, like the WPAC that has a lot.

[Sanibel]

Another recurving wimp off a not yet fully cooked CV belt.


Will the first good storm be from an established Low exiting Africa or ITCZ developer?

[supercane]

I wonder if the system is taking time to organize because is embedded in a monsoon type gyre, like the WPAC that has a lot.

93L is not in a monsoon gyre. From 8 PM EDT Tropical Weather Discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 20N34W 14N37W
7N41W...MOVING WESTWARD 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH HIGH VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER. BROAD SURFACE/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED
WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.
ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY WELL
ORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Surface analysis from 00Z analyzes a 1014 mb low on the wave axis:



BTW, on the 96W thread I posted some links about the monsoon gyre, including a link to Lander's paper, and a guest appearance by theavocado. See it starting here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=108802&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=97

Edited to fix link to sfc analysis

[chzzdekr81]

40%
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 070551
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE LATER TODAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

I'm not the only one awake!!!

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 07 2010

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 21N37W TO 8N39W
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS
CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1014 MB LOW CENTER ALONG THE AXIS AT 17N.
THIS CIRCULATION IS CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE FROM THE ITCZ TO 27N
BETWEEN 29W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 36W-40W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE SRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
39W-42W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS.

[supercane]

The above-mentioned ASCAT

[HURAKAN]

06z

AL, 93, 2010080706, , BEST, 0, 175N, 375W, 25, 1010

[KWT]

Convection strengthening near the system but its not really all that impressive just yet. The models aren't quite so keen as they have been so may only see another marginal system that only just develops.

We will see!

[Nimbus]

If its a wimp all it may do is moisten the environment for the next wave.
Hope the persistent TUTT further west stays the rest of the season.

[KWT]

Yeah it'd be nice but I think it'll probably steadily weaken and all it may do is focus everything further west like it probably did in 2005...

Anyway I think we get something from this but may not be all that impressive, probably continue the trend Colin set.

[Gustywind]

40%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071130
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 850 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND BELIZE LATER TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 850 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND BELIZE LATER TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, I think this one will have dry air, some shear, and marginal SST's especially at depths deep enough to keep the surface from being cooled from upwelling that will all play a part in keeping it in check. Don't see more than maybe a strong TS or minimal hurricane from this system eventually evolving.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 93, 2010080712, , BEST, 0, 188N, 388W, 25, 1011, DB

[TexasF6]

This thing needs to die off so 95L can get rollin.....I'm calling for the wave I initially liked rolling off the coast of Africa behind this convective mess to become 95L....this is just my opinion of course,

[cycloneye]

This thing needs to die off so 95L can get rollin.....I'm calling for the wave I initially liked rolling off the coast of Africa behind this convective mess to become 95L....this is just my opinion of course,

You meant 94L right?

[cycloneye]

Looking much better.