ATTN: All GOMers

[Air Force Met]

Portastorm - It really isn't about where the model thinks it is or isn't. For example...even though the models ahve not really initialized it well right now...there is no way it is recurving and headed into the Florida panhandle. The high is sitting there. Model initialization becomes super ciritical when you have weak steering flows. In this case, the steering flow is pretty strong towards the west. The only factor left is "how far north will the LLC be when it finally forms?" If it forms near 27N...then look for a landfall B/W BRO and CRP. In that case...SETX gets some rainbands. If it forms b/w 24 and 25...northern Mexico gets it and SETX gets some cirrus.
I'm not saying that SETX won't see some effects. If it forms further north...some rainbands and some gusty winds are not out of the question. What I am saying is that regardless of intialization...a direct hit on SETX is not likely at all. The models are all pretty good within 48-72 horus. They would all have to be hosed in the first 48 hours in order for this to hit SETX. That would be a very rare event. Matter of fact...teh GFS, CAnadian, Nogaps, all of them would need a 48 hour error or about 200 miles. NOt saying that is not possible...but if it does happen...write it down and remember where you were because with this type of pattern (big high steering...not some storm stalled out some where) that would be a rare event.

[Portastorm]

Understood and I do appreciate the observations from you, AirForceMet!

Indeed, the steering flow from the east looks vigorous.

[southerngale]

The only factor left is "how far north will the LLC be when it finally forms?"

Have the forward speed and storm intensity factors already been pretty much determined or are they not really relevant to the eventual landfall location in this case? I know those things can play a part in the direction a system takes. Just trying to figure what elements I need to watch to get an idea where this thing may be headed.

[Air Force Met]

In this case the lower level steering flow and the mid and upper steering flow are all pretty much the same. Even if the storm were to really deepen...there are no upper level features to snag it more to the north. The big factor is where does the LLC finally get together with the MLC. The further north this happens...the stronger and further north the storm goes.

[southerngale]

Okey-dokey Nelson....thanks!

[Guest]

This one's yours Kelly.

[southerngale]

This one's yours Kelly.

What happened to TacoLand???

[Guest]

Oops Tacoland was from Ticka1 - i'm ticka2.

[southerngale]

I figured as much.