ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

Nice bursting going on right now, but that shear is a force to be reckoned with. Models still decrease the shear, but I don't know if it'll be enough to cause Colin to restrengthen. I'm thinking 50-55 mph at its peak with a very sheared look to it.

[Cookie]

shear does the hard work so you dont have to.

[KWT]

The thing with the shear is it is causing some good divergence so whilst the convection is over or near the center you'll probably see strengthening, but ewually if the shear strengthens a little the convection gets blown away like this morning.

[ozonepete]

shear dose the hard work so you dont have to.

!!

[KWT]

Nice big convective burst occuring just to the east of the center at the moment, still clearly sheared but it'll probably help to establish the center that is still the stronger one again.

[hurricaneCW]

Is Colin suppose to pass west of Bermuda, over Bermuda, or just east of Bermuda. The first option would give the biggest impact, the last would have the least impact unless the shear really backs down and the storm ramps up on the west side.

[KWT]

Looks like its going to be close, of course given the lop-sided nature of Colin, most of the weather is going to be on the eastern side of this system.

Going to be interesting to watch the system over the next 24hrs as it comes close to Bermuda, providing the system is just to the west of Bermuda it could be a rather wet spell coming up for the island.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Satellite imagery suggests that upper level conditions are indeed becoming more favorable for Colin. Currently Colin is in the process of developing a CDO, which of course is an indication of an intensifying system. Now take a look at water vapor. You can tell that the TUTT fractured into 2 ULL's ones stationary over the Bahamas while the other is backing off towards the NE. This will allow for ridging to develop in the upper levels, allowing for favorable upper level conditions, thus propelling Colin to intensify.

[supercane]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 070239
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 06 2010

...DISORGANIZED COLIN ADVANCING TOWARD BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 66.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

<snip>

From discussion:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 29.1N 66.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 30.3N 66.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 32.0N 65.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 33.7N 64.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 36.5N 63.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 42.0N 57.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 49.5N 46.5W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

[HURAKAN]

Expected to track very close to Bermuda

[HURAKAN]

Low-level center appear to be under the convection, but just under the western portion

[supercane]

Not a lot of shear on this analysis. Map made in UW-CIMSS with obs, microwave imagery, shear, model overlays.

[supercane]

FYI for those interested the next recon flight just took off from St Croix. Should be near Colin's center around the time of the intermediate advisory at 2 am EDT or 06Z. Follow along with the recon thread for raw data and the recon discussion thread for commentary.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[WeatherGuesser]

Posted: Sun Aug 01, 2010 11:19 pm

Skipping pages, but based solely on the Historical Track map posted at 8AM and nothing else, chances seem greater for it to turn out to sea than come ashore, however, if it does make landfall, it could be strong.

Hmmm, interesting.

[supercane]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 070545
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
200 AM AST SAT AUG 07 2010

...COLIN MOVING LITTLE...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT APPROACHING TO
INVESTIGATE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 66.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

<snip>
COLIN HAS
MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...

<snip>


Still awaiting recon to provide info on intensity.

[supercane]

Holding steady with Dvorak classification:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
07/0545 UTC 29.0N 66.4W T2.5/2.5 COLIN
06/2345 UTC 28.6N 66.7W T2.5/2.5 COLIN

[supercane]

ASCAT missed W half of Colin:

[HURAKAN]

QuikSCAT, we're short of nothing without you!

[HURAKAN]

AL, 04, 2010080700, , BEST, 0, 287N, 666W, 40, 1009, TS
AL, 04, 2010080706, , BEST, 0, 289N, 666W, 40, 1008, TS

barely moved between 00z and 06z