Wave East of the Windward Islands

[ConvergenceZone]

Well this is the only game is town. There's nothing else out there except a failing 92L, a dismantled Colin. 93L will be going well out to sea into the SAL, not much going on for that one either. I don't think this one will develop either, but it's something.

93L probably will develop and if it does your going to start seeing the outflow shear this current wave sooner or later. Its a nice wave for now and you can't rule it out, esp further west but I'm not thinking development is too likely any time soon...though it probably will be 94L fairly soon IMO.

If this wave continues westward, we might see some slow development as it approaches the carib islands......

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 29W
FROM 07N TO 14N AND IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE WAS
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
28W AND 32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB

[BigA]

Convection on the wane, but definitely a circulation at either mid or lower levels. I don't expect anything rapid, but I think it could start to develop in a couple of days. Still looks to be pushing westward.

[KWT]

Hmmm yeah you can see a circulation there, its quite weak and convection still seems to be connected to the ITCZ on the southern side but probably enough there to warrant an invest in the next 24hrs.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Looks like things are maybe begin to heat up ? A couple of squalls lines (3) are doting Africa mid-august is surely not too far.

[Gustywind]

[ROCK]

this will be tagged the more west it moves over the next few days IMO....93L is carving into the SAL to the North opening the door...the larger it takes to develop the more a threat to the islands next week....

[KWT]

I'd be quite tempted to invest this area just to see...93L will probably prevent any decent strengthening from occuring soon IMO, which will probably mean a more westerly track is likely.

[Gustywind]

this will be tagged the more west it moves over the next few days IMO....93L is carving into the SAL to the North opening the door...the larger it takes to develop the more a threat to the islands next week....

You're right, goud reasoning and that's why we should keep an eye. Let's wait and see what could happens during the next couple of days.

[ROCK]

I'd be quite tempted to invest this area just to see...93L will probably prevent any decent strengthening from occuring soon IMO, which will probably mean a more westerly track is likely.

so far away... so really no reason to run the BAMMs, IMO. The globals are picking up on it already to some extent.

[HURAKAN]

Loo - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rgb.html

Rotation is pretty nice .. should be an Invest soon ...

I wish one day to have control of declaring invests!!! It would be a crazy day in the tropics when that happens!!!

[KWT]

I'd be quite tempted to invest this area just to see...93L will probably prevent any decent strengthening from occuring soon IMO, which will probably mean a more westerly track is likely.

so far away... so really no reason to run the BAMMs, IMO. The globals are picking up on it already to some extent.

Oh there is no real hurry but it is quite low in latitude and it is starting to look pretty good at the moment, I wouldn't be surprised to see 94L pretty soon to be honest.

[Aquawind]

I do think it looks to eventually be Earl..maybe a threat for the islands even but, I have my doubts the way Collin and 93L found the weakness at this point.

[rockyman]

Model Runs from CIMSS:

[KWT]

This one does look like its going to go a good deal further west of 93L, I think if it keeps going the direction it is then there is a good chance of eventual devlopment...

Of course the models may just be going west because they don't develop it.

[ConvergenceZone]

This one does look like its going to go a good deal further west of 93L, I think if it keeps going the direction it is then there is a good chance of eventual devlopment...

Of course the models may just be going west because they don't develop it.

The models may start to develop it though once it gets closer to the islands...

[cycloneye]

No mention on the 8 PM TWO. I think that they will wait for convection to come back and persist.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't see how this wave it going to curve out to sea, it's so much further south than 93L is right now.

[Gustywind]

I don't see how this wave it going to curve out to sea, it's so much further south than 93L is right now.

Let's wait and see. Mother Nature is always full of surprises. So before speaking about recurve or not we should continue to monitor it carefully in case of a possible improvement (no mention of the latest 8 PM TWD). For now it's