Global model runs discussion

[caneseddy]

12z Nogaps brings a little surprise to our friends on the islands; looks like it develops that little ball of convection currently below 10 degrees on the ITCZ and shoots it through the Windwards up into the Virgin Islands just off Puerto Rico

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[BatzVI]

I certainly don't want that to verify............

[BigA]

One thing that I've noticed is that the recent runs of the GFS seem to finally kick out the TUTT low over the western Atlantic in about a week. Could make thing a lot more favorable for development if this verifies.

[KWT]

Yeah that needs to be watched, if it does lift out one of the main preventing aspects of this seasons will be gone...
However I think the models have been keen on lifting it out for a long time now and it hasn't really happened.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS has a very intense Hurricane heading west under a strong Bermuda high

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS shows a non stop wave train...another one coming off Africa in this image

[ROCK]

those are 384hr GFS images......Ivan, I am ashamed....

[ROCK]

look how boiling the MDR is GOM.....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Ivanhater]

those are 384hr GFS images......Ivan, I am ashamed....

This is the long range thread Rock

Main thing here, the model shows storms being spit off Africa continuously...looks to be one hell of an August and September imo..

[somethingfunny]

I don't understand why the GFS would be showing deep systems emerging from Africa....that last image shows a system which is still over land. I know it's the 384 hour, but it's not even plausible except in rare situations which we have very little understanding of.

[ROCK]

those are 384hr GFS images......Ivan, I am ashamed....

This is the long range thread Rock

Main thing here, the model shows storms being spit off Africa continuously...looks to be one hell of an August and September imo..

I know....just giving you the business since its slow going around here.....

[KWT]

Whilst it is far out I'm seeing signs of things lining up for possibly several risks for the land coming up from the 20th August onwards. The GFS certainly hints at the upper high eventually re-strengthening again and at the same time things come together for possibly a busier phase as the MJO flicks favourable.

[mattpetre]

Although storms that form in the medium range models are often discounted for various reasons and we often laugh at outlier runs that do "crazy" things; I wonder if anyone does or has kept track of the number of occurences in which a significant storm event occurs and none of the models picked up on it in the medium term (i.e. 72 to 96 hrs before forming)? Anyone have any insight on this?

[KWT]

Things still look exactly the same as yesterday on the GFS, with probably several CV storms developing close to the 20-25th range AND importantly the upper high builds back stronger. The GFS isn't quite as strong with the upper high feature this time round on its 12z run, it'd probably enough to at least suggest a heightened threat to the E.Coast.

[cycloneye]

The very long range GFS continues to show what may be the first major cane of the season in the Atlantic and as Ivan says,the lid comes off.

[Steve H.]

Where have all the ridges gone....long time passing...

[Stephanie]

Where have all the ridges gone....long time passing...

[cycloneye]

There is a trio in the 12z GFS long range,Western Caribbean and two between the Lesser Antilles and Africa.

[BigA]

The long range 10-16 days isn't useful for finding individual storms, but it sure is useful for trends, and the trend that I see is a strong subtropical high and favorable conditions in the MDR in two weeks.

[blp]

I have been looking at the CFS model for the ultra long range and it is predicting continued weakness around the area that Colin made the turn heading into mid September. I was curious is the CFS related to the MRF? or is it some new model? I tried to google it and could not find much history on the CFS. Granted the CFS is way out there and probably not worth mentioning but it has been consistent on an entire weeks worth of runs showing a weakness around 60W persisting.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=mamk&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=pslv&WMO=&ZOOM=0&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201008070000%26HH%3D354