WPAC: Ex DIANMU

[supercane]

00Z analysis from JMA in and posted below. Still no advisory written.

WWJP25 RJTD 080000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 080000.
WARNING VALID 090000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 978 HPA
AT 56N 175E BERING SEA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 56N 175E TO 55N 178E 54N 179W.
WARM FRONT FROM 54N 179W TO 53N 176W 52N 173W.
COLD FRONT FROM 54N 179W TO 50N 178E 45N 171E 44N 160E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 44N 160E TO 44N 151E 42N 140E 41N 130E 39N
121E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 22.3N 124.7E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 38N 141E 42N 142E
47N 152E 55N 161E 60N 165E 60N 180E 40N 180E 36N 160E 38N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 30N 162E SW 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1002 HPA NEAR 18N 112E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 34N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 47N 152E EAST 20 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[supercane]

I wasnt sayign anyone here I am just saying in general half the agencies are saying somethign and others arnt and it makes you wonder what is really going on.

No worries, just wanted to make sure that you didn't feel ignored. Actually even here in the Western Hemisphere it is ultimately the responsibility of each national meteorological agency to issue warnings, but it appears that most countries in the region defer to the NHC advisory information. Although the Tokyo RSMC is the agency responsible for issuing advisories for the WMO in the West Pac, as you've seen most countries issue their own forecasts as well. You could defer to your local government's advisories, or try to synthesize the individual agencies take on things to better your understanding about each system.

[supercane]

WDPN31 PGTW 080300Z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300
NM SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 072123Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 072229Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 072308 89 GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL THAT
A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED FROM A BROADER
CIRCULATION WITHIN THE REVERSE MONSOON TROUGH PATTERN. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AT
00Z. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL OVER JAPAN. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND IS
EXPERIENCING LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05 TO 10 KNOTS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN AND IT
ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST REASONING.
B. TD 05W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH KOREA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS,
WHICH DRIVES THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY EASTWARD AFTER TAU 24.
C. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96 TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
RECURVE INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH. BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

they moved teh position to fair..wonder how much strengthing it can do being so close

[Typhoon Hunter]

they moved teh position to fair..wonder how much strengthing it can do being so close

Not sure what you're trying to say there, what do you mean by position and fair?

HKO issuing advisories now, they forecast a STS into S Korea in 72 hours.

[Typhoon10]

Am hearing that possibly this has split with FIVE heading upwards towards Korea but a separated LPA, 96W? Heading into SCS?

Anyone else see that?

[Chacor]

96W is TD Five-W. No "split".

[StormingB81]

they moved teh position to fair..wonder how much strengthing it can do being so close

Not sure what you're trying to say there, what do you mean by position and fair?

HKO issuing advisories now, they forecast a STS into S Korea in 72 hours.

JMA earlier was saying Position Poor...now it is Position Fair

[Chacor]

they moved teh position to fair..wonder how much strengthing it can do being so close

Not sure what you're trying to say there, what do you mean by position and fair?

HKO issuing advisories now, they forecast a STS into S Korea in 72 hours.

JMA earlier was saying Position Poor...now it is Position Fair

Just means that they've got a better grip on the initial centre position.

[supercane]

T numbers still low:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
08/0232 UTC 22.9N 124.8E T1.5/1.5 05W
07/2032 UTC 21.3N 124.6E T1.5/1.5 96W

[supercane]

Tropical Depression
at 08:00 HKT 08 August 2010

(21.8 N, 125.0 E)



Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind
08:00 HKT 09 August 2010 25.0 N 125.5 E Tropical Storm 75 km/h
08:00 HKT 10 August 2010 30.4 N 126.4 E Severe Tropical Storm 110 km/h
08:00 HKT 11 August 2010 34.5 N 127.4 E Severe Tropical Storm 110 km/h

[StormingB81]

so guess it wont make that NE turn or still too soon?

[StormingB81]

Thank for about the position....learned somethign new.

[Chacor]

Has to do with the JMA's confidence in placing the centre. IIRC poor is 30% confidence, fair is 50%, and good is 70% within a certain radius.

[supercane]

[StormingB81]

ahhh now I know..I was thinking it was how the storm was. I feel stupid now..lol but thats why i dont get paid the big bucks to do this it is jus ta hobby

[supercane]

Current shear low. Map made in UW-CIMSS with sat, obs, shear, track.



BTW no advisories yet from Korea.

[StormingB81]

no percautionary ones for okinawa either

[Chacor]

Yeah, can't find anything from RKSL yet, and Okinawa's still in TC COR IV.

[StormingB81]

that hong kong site from the 6th page now has it comming over Okinawa. But they may be caution because it doesnt look that good stregth wise. But tomorrow they going to have to make up there mind.