Possible Gulf System next week (Is invest 94L)

[KFDM Meteorologist]

GFS pretty similar to Euro although it really doesn't develop it.

This is complex situation with this developing from a stalled front. Exactly what angle this comes off Florida and where it sets up will determine where landfall will be. A lot of people don't know about this yet and isn't that far out...

True. Hard to trust the NAM though especially 84 hours out but should be interesting.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Especially interesting due to the fact earlier this week our nws office was mentioning some kind of weak trough or hybrid low could make it here late next week, now the models are trying to develop a full blown tropical system moving across the gulf.

[ikesurvivorinBCTX]

Hello! I am new and first post.

I hope the NAM is wrong. I wouldn't mind rain but not anything tropical.

[HURAKAN]

HPC doesn't do much with the low

[blazess556]

GFS is now on board with the gulf storm.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

[HURAKAN]

GFS is now on board with the golf storm.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

PGA tour!!! lol jk

[blazess556]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

Nam as well.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hard to trust any model right now. As Ivanhater said earlier this has potential to sneak up on someone in a hurry. Once it get in the gulf could be one day or three days until a landfall. Also until some kind of llc starts to develop models will be bouncing all over the place from texas to florida.

[Ivanhater]

RUC on board as well

[Ivanhater]

GFS not very strong but looks like Nola area as well

[Ivanhater]

[StormClouds63]

Worth watching since a possible GOM system ... Does this form a LLC? Time over water?

[Ivanhater]

Add the UKMET

[TwisterFanatic]

Looks like this has pretty good model support...

[Ivanhater]

Canadian SE Louisiana

[ConvergenceZone]

Are any of the models forcasting a hurricane? or are most of them just forecasting a tropical storm?

[Ivanhater]

Are any of the models forcasting a hurricane? or are most of them just forecasting a tropical storm?

That depends on timing..models showing favorable conditions and of course the extremely high SST's...

[TwisterFanatic]

I think the NAM was showing the strongest?

[ROCK]

If the UKMET sends it that far south more time for the ridge to build and more west. If its crosses Tampa ala CMC then NO seems a good bet....


EDIT the 12Z EURO is into Western LA to TX/LA border..crosses Miami area ala Katrina works its way under LA then inland then makes a circle ala IVAN.....nice...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 712!!step/

[AJC3]

If the UKMET sends it that far south more time for the ridge to build and more west. If its crosses Tampa ala CMC then NO seems a good bet....


EDIT the 12Z EURO is into Western LA to TX/LA border..crosses Miami area ala Katrina works its way under LA then inland then makes a circle ala IVAN.....nice...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 712!!step/

At H72, the 00Z NAM, GFS, and UKM, as well as the 12Z ECM are all in pretty much the same place with the surface-H85 low centers (roughly near 27N 85.5W). Apart from the NAM's 1003MB, they're showing a MCP between 1008 and 1010MB. The UKM is about a degree (~60mi) father south with the H50 low than the ECM, and about 2 degs (120mi) than the GFS.

There's almost no doubt that a surface low will form as the mid to upper low east of FL retrogrades westward over the state. Interestingly enough, we will likely see a boatload of convection over the FL peninsula the next two afternoons, which will release a bunch of latent heat in the general area of where the surface low is forecast to form.