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WHXX01 KWBC 081848
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1848 UTC SUN AUG 8 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100808 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100808 1800 100809 0600 100809 1800 100810 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.5N 79.5W 29.6N 79.9W 30.0N 80.8W 30.2N 82.1W
BAMD 29.5N 79.5W 28.5N 80.2W 27.9N 81.4W 27.4N 83.1W
BAMM 29.5N 79.5W 29.2N 80.2W 29.1N 81.4W 28.9N 83.1W
LBAR 29.5N 79.5W 28.8N 80.1W 28.4N 81.3W 28.1N 83.0W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 26KTS 30KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100810 1800 100811 1800 100812 1800 100813 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.6N 83.8W 31.4N 87.3W 32.1N 89.1W 32.2N 89.5W
BAMD 27.2N 85.0W 28.0N 89.2W 29.6N 93.1W 31.0N 96.1W
BAMM 28.9N 85.0W 29.5N 89.0W 30.6N 92.1W 31.5N 94.1W
LBAR 28.0N 85.0W 28.1N 89.7W 28.9N 94.2W 30.2N 97.6W
SHIP 34KTS 36KTS 39KTS 40KTS
DSHP 32KTS 34KTS 28KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.5N LONCUR = 79.5W DIRCUR = 215DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 30.6N LONM12 = 78.6W DIRM12 = 207DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 31.6N LONM24 = 78.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* COLIN AL042010 08/08/10 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 23 24 25 29 33 32 31 29 29 29 27
V (KT) LAND 25 23 23 24 25 29 33 32 31 29 29 29 27
V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 21 21 21 21 22 22 21 21 22 26 DIS
SHEAR (KT) 12 17 19 17 13 16 32 41 32 21 9 9 N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -3 0 2 5 6 0 3 0 -2 N/A
SHEAR DIR 299 314 326 321 304 300 261 247 226 204 190 191 N/A
SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.6 25.8 20.1 13.2 10.9 14.5 12.9 13.5 N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 128 129 134 116 84 71 69 72 70 71 N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 114 110 108 110 115 103 77 68 67 68 68 68 N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -53.0 -54.2 -54.9 -55.2 N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 8 10 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A
700-500 MB RH 53 48 51 54 54 58 62 64 68 76 73 74 N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 2 3 2 5 7 8 8 7 7 7 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -46 -73 -78 -68 -74 -36 7 38 20 -4 -34 -88 N/A
200 MB DIV 10 6 11 25 31 42 37 26 43 24 42 14 N/A
LAND (KM) 1003 997 963 871 786 584 437 171 523 969 1430 1097 N/A
LAT (DEG N) 32.4 33.3 34.1 35.3 36.5 39.4 42.9 45.7 48.0 50.1 51.7 53.6 N/A
LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.4 65.1 64.6 64.1 61.1 56.1 51.4 45.8 39.8 33.5 26.7 N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 11 13 16 22 23 22 22 22 22 22 N/A
HEAT CONTENT 7 9 13 12 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 9. 5. 3. 3. 3. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11.
PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 0. 4. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 2.
** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 COLIN 08/08/10 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 COLIN 08/08/10 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 COLIN 08/08/2010 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)