ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[ConvergenceZone]

okay

[StormTracker]

I was wondering where you were! Haven't seen you for a minute IH! I think this season's switch is a dimmer switch that can go from dim-bright in a flash vs. a conventional on/off switch! Where did 94L come from? Where any models digging on this before today?

I am not Ivan,but I can tell you,from the past 3 days the models have been sniffing at this.See thread at Talking Tropics were it was discussed.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108883&start=0

Ooops, sorry CycEye! I guess I was so busy watching 92L/93L/Colin that I forgot to check in @ Talking Tropics!
PS: I trust your posts just as much as Ivan's! You guys are way more advanced than me!

[Steve]

>>Wow, so far outside of Alex, this has been the year of tropical storms....Wonder if it's giong to continue like that for the rest of August and September? If only we knew.......

We do know. The answer is no. While some posters have been running around every thread calling it an overblown season and screaming about the upper lows all over the basin, those who know have been saying all along that this would be a primarily western based season with much higher than average numbers. That, in itself, lends to a boat-load of tropical storms, many of which will landfall in North America. But that's not all that will be involved. There should be 9ish hurricanes, of which, probably at least 3 or 4 become majors. Which ones impact North America? That's what we don't know. Yet.

[ROCK]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 812!!step/


The 12Z ECM doesnt do much with it and crosses it near Miami, tracks it to LA but the high pushes it back into the BOC.....?


Portastorm you might be right...

[Steve]

Oh and FYI, Bastardi is the only one I know of that has actually given numbers - 7 or 8 US. He quantified how many would be TS, Hurricanes and IH's, but I don't want to misquote him. It's out there if you want to know. Do we know if he's right? No. But we'll find out.

[StormTracker]

One thing's for sure! All the models are gettin' a good workout this season! We've got systems popping everywhere! It'll be interesting to see what model gets the most credit at the end of season for doing the best job with the systems of 2010!

[southerngale]

>>Wow, so far outside of Alex, this has been the year of tropical storms....Wonder if it's giong to continue like that for the rest of August and September? If only we knew.......

We do know. The answer is no. While some posters have been running around every thread calling it an overblown season and screaming about the upper lows all over the basin, those who know have been saying all along that this would be a primarily western based season with much higher than average numbers. That, in itself, lends to a boat-load of tropical storms, many of which will landfall in North America. But that's not all that will be involved. There should be 9ish hurricanes, of which, probably at least 3 or 4 become majors. Which ones impact North America? That's what we don't know. Yet.

Excellent post, Steve. It's amazing the amount of posts implying this is, or will be, a dead season... in early August!

As for 94L, I'm sure a lot of GOM'ers are glad to see that it's only forecast to become a TS.

[ConvergenceZone]

>>Wow, so far outside of Alex, this has been the year of tropical storms....Wonder if it's giong to continue like that for the rest of August and September? If only we knew.......

We do know. The answer is no. While some posters have been running around every thread calling it an overblown season and screaming about the upper lows all over the basin, those who know have been saying all along that this would be a primarily western based season with much higher than average numbers. That, in itself, lends to a boat-load of tropical storms, many of which will landfall in North America. But that's not all that will be involved. There should be 9ish hurricanes, of which, probably at least 3 or 4 become majors. Which ones impact North America? That's what we don't know. Yet.

okay

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Still would not rule out a more western track scenario. This could pull a Katrina TYPE TRACK, not intensity. The more south it moves before crossing Florida, the further west it could go. The high over the SE looks to be building in pretty strong and pushing all the convection east of Florida due south.

[ROCK]

Still would not rule out a more western track scenario. This could pull a Katrina TYPE TRACK, not intensity. The more south it moves before crossing Florida, the further west it could go. The high over the SE looks to be building in pretty strong and pushing all the convection east of Florida due south.

agree

my one word post of the day...

[cheezyWXguy]

>>Wow, so far outside of Alex, this has been the year of tropical storms....Wonder if it's giong to continue like that for the rest of August and September? If only we knew.......

We do know. The answer is no. While some posters have been running around every thread calling it an overblown season and screaming about the upper lows all over the basin, those who know have been saying all along that this would be a primarily western based season with much higher than average numbers. That, in itself, lends to a boat-load of tropical storms, many of which will landfall in North America. But that's not all that will be involved. There should be 9ish hurricanes, of which, probably at least 3 or 4 become majors. Which ones impact North America? That's what we don't know. Yet.

Steve, isn't not that easy. We don't know if the above prediction you mentioned is going to come true. The odds may point to that, but
certainty does not point to that. If it were that certain, past year predictions wouldn't have been as inaccurate as they are....

Then how can you say its the year of tropical storms? There's been 1 hurricane and 2 tropical storms...I dont see why this is so weird. You can believe all you want that this year will be full of weak ones, but it only takes one to really turn things around and I have a feeling you're going to get caught with your guard down.

[Portastorm]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010080812!!step/


The 12Z ECM doesnt do much with it and crosses it near Miami, tracks it to LA but the high pushes it back into the BOC.....?


Portastorm you might be right...

There's a first time for everything.

[Ivanhater]

It is better to look at the higher resolution Euro...Takes it WSW into the Gulf then NW into Nola/Mississippi before turning back east

[Weatherfreak000]

>>Wow, so far outside of Alex, this has been the year of tropical storms....Wonder if it's giong to continue like that for the rest of August and September? If only we knew.......

We do know. The answer is no. While some posters have been running around every thread calling it an overblown season and screaming about the upper lows all over the basin, those who know have been saying all along that this would be a primarily western based season with much higher than average numbers. That, in itself, lends to a boat-load of tropical storms, many of which will landfall in North America. But that's not all that will be involved. There should be 9ish hurricanes, of which, probably at least 3 or 4 become majors. Which ones impact North America? That's what we don't know. Yet.

Steve, isn't not that easy. We don't know if the above prediction you mentioned is going to come true. The odds may point to that, but
certainty does not point to that. If it were that certain, past year predictions wouldn't have been as inaccurate as they are....

Hey look, no offense to you Convergence Zone, but I have seen you actively calling this "dud season" pitch for at least a month now.


With three named storms and another knocking on the door (70%), and the GOM development (30% early guesstimate), you cannot possibly find any evidence to suggest there is any uncertainty against an active season.

First of all, let me say that I find you a worthy poster. You have been around awhile and you demand respect making good points. I myself have even been confounded by this season thus far. All the storms (with the exception of Alex) are falling apart due to insane amounts of shear and dry air. But this season IS NOT 2006. You make comparisons like TS Chris. Just remember what Alex did in the GOM.

Your point about pre-season forecasts was great too. But hey you and everyone else here is smart enough to know those forecasts are like throwing a dart on a map. That's why we humorously offer our own forecast numbers which more likely than not are always completely wrong.

My point here is PATIENCE is the hallmark of this hobby. If you don't have it, you will find it difficult to appreciate the beauty of the tropics. The greatest lesson of Storm2k is we get the information streamlined far faster and more efficiently than the general public. As such we need to view what we see more objectively and patiently to utilize it better.

[Steve]

Story on 94L from crAccuweather:

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... d-form.asp

FWIW, Here's Joe's US impacts - 8 total - 3 (2 we've had) TS, 5 Hurricanes 2 of which are major hits. That's a bold forecast. It's 2005ish. Here's his video.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/731462 ... el=tropics

[ConvergenceZone]

Hey look, no offense to you Convergence Zone, but I have seen you actively calling this "dud season" pitch for at least a month now.

okay

[Ivanhater]

The problem is when we have the same conversation every day. If you think it is going to be an inactive season, that is fine, but we don't need to hear about it every hour. This is not directed at anyone in particular.

Back to models..

TAFB DAY 3

[ROCK]

Ivan, the resolution I was looking at came from the ECM site....shows it approaching LA after crossing southern FL then it loses it and the low is shunted SW into the BOC....anyway thats what I took from it...

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, the resolution I was looking at came from the ECM site....shows it approaching LA after crossing southern FL then it loses it and the low is shunted SW into the BOC....anyway thats what I took from it...

With weaker systems, I can't tell from the ECMWF site. Either way, crappy day for you in SoFlo...

[Weatherfreak000]

I agree, Ivanhater.


It's the consistency of it, not the comment itself. Much like the EURO trashtalk, Storm2k experiences debates like this yearly. I remember the year katrina happened we here in NOLA were angered by Meteorological Claim that we got, "Let off easy", or that, "It could have been much worse".

We would say back, it DON'T GET much worse partner. Why don't you come swim around in the 9th ward and find out.


Edit: My point here is everyone has various perspectives, none wrong.