ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[Vortmax1]

It turns out I was correct last Monday saying this system might not be a problem for anyone!
We have yet to see if Bermuda has a problem with Colin...but I doubt it will be much.

I hope the island peeps are happy now that I was correct!
I never want any strikes on my island friends.

[ozonepete]

It turns out I was correct last Monday saying this system might not be a problem for anyone!
We have yet to see if Bermuda has a problem with Colin...but I doubt it will be much.

I hope the island peeps are happy now that I was correct!
I never want any strikes on my island friends.

You're speaking too soon. Don't jinx it.

[Epsilon_Fan]

saying it looks ragged is a compliment now... not much to look at

[Vortmax1]

You're speaking too soon. Don't jinx it.

You're most likely correct.
I'll remain quiet!

[HURAKAN]

rough night for Colin

[Brent]

Wow... HIDEOUS. What happened to the forecast of strengthening?

[ozonepete]

rough night for Colin

Yeah, as the NHC has said, this one is really hard to figure out. It should be doing better than this considering the atmospheric conditions there. Actually, the more I look at this the harder it is to figure out. I give up on this one for now! Although it's really clear that it has very strong southerly shear on its western side and really strong northerly shear on the eastern side. Just a really much more hostile environment than the data indicate.

[supercane]

Even lower T numbers for Colin per SSD would not typically support a classified system:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
08/0545 UTC 30.7N 65.2W T1.0/2.0 COLIN
07/2345 UTC 29.3N 65.4W T2.0/2.0 COLIN

[supercane]

Likely to see TD at 5 AM EDT/9Z update with best track downgrade for 06Z. And to borrow a phrase from the recent NHC Colin discussions, 30 kt may be generous:

AL, 04, 2010080806, , BEST, 0, 303N, 657W, 30, 1013, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 110, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, COLIN, S,
AL, 04, 2010080800, , BEST, 0, 295N, 656W, 35, 1012, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 0, 0, 1015, 130, 80, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, COLIN, M, 12, NEQ, 90, 90, 0, 0

[supercane]

Colin looks bad, despite relatively low shear, whichever sat enhancement scheme you pick. Map made from UW-CIMSS TcTrak showing sat, obs, shear, model tracks:

[Cookie]

rough night for Colin

he's a bit hung over this morning

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 04, 2010080812, , BEST, 0, 314N, 655W, 30, 1013, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest


Will be downgraded to TD at 11 AM.

[HURAKAN]

latest ... pathetic

[ROCK]

sandwiched between shear zones from opposite directions will do that to a TS...its dead Jim...

[supercane]

Looks like NHC getting close to pulling the plug with continued weakening on 18Z best track update from ATCF:

AL, 04, 2010080818, , BEST, 0, 324N, 657W, 25, 1015, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 75, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, COLIN, S,
AL, 04, 2010080812, , BEST, 0, 314N, 657W, 30, 1013, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 125, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, COLIN, S,

[brunota2003]

Bye bye Colin, you will be remembered as the little TS that got squashed.

[HurricaneJoe22]

the little TS that got squashed.

yeah, that narrows it down

[KWT]

Colin is pretty much done, convection developing way to the south but I'd end Colin next advisory if it hasn't already gone!

[cycloneye]

Colin is pretty much done, convection developing way to the south but I'd end Colin next advisory if it hasn't already gone!

The 5 PM was the last one.

[KWT]

Ah fair enough then, I'm too busy watching our two invests we have at the moment to relaly notice Colin!