ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[MiamiHurricanes10]

I could see 93L evolving into a tropical depression tonight.

[CrazyC83]

This already has the "look" of a potentially significant system.

[KWT]

Hmmm convection look somewhat detatched though for it to be upgraded, but then again if Colin was re-upgraded then this one probably should be upgraded as well.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Hmmm convection look somewhat detatched though for it to be upgraded, but then again if Colin was re-upgraded then this one probably should be upgraded as well.

As it continues westward over warmer waters convection should increase. That's about the only thing holding it back from becoming a tropical depression because it is evident that it has acquired a well-defined closed surface circulation.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

93L heading into warmer waters which would support for it to fire some more convection.

[Aquawind]

I could see 93L evolving into a tropical depression tonight.

Exactly what I was thinking.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

[KWT]

Its not so much the amount of convection, its the fact it looks like the convection is too far away from the circulation to strengthen much, it doesn't strike me as a look that I'd expect from a system to get beyond maybe 40-50kts...in fact its rather like Colin was like in the last few days, well maybe not that bad but similar.

Don't get me wrong I'm expecting a depression soon enough, but its not really that impressive despite a strong LLC...whether that changes though we will see, there is enough out there to suggest we could see it strengthen once it turns northwards.

[CrazyC83]

If it can wrap the convection completely, based on its structure, Hurricane Danielle is a good possibility (although a "major" hurricane would be quite unlikely).

[hurricaneCW]

Hurricane Danielle? I think that may be pushing it. Nice LLC, but the convection remains limited and unimpressive. Even if the environment does improve, it could take a long time for the disturbance to take advantage of favorable conditions. Colin was never able to take advantage of favorable conditions and now he's gone.

[KWT]

If it can wrap the convection completely, based on its structure, Hurricane Danielle is a good possibility (although a "major" hurricane would be quite unlikely).

I'd be shocked if this got to a major hurricane, in fact I'd be a little surprised if it reached Hurricane strength given the presentation currently shown...

One thing though HCW, Colin *never* got near favourable conditions, at best it got semi-decent conditions in 6hr bursts, but that isn't what I'd call favourable

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Hurricane Danielle? I think that may be pushing it. Nice LLC, but the convection remains limited and unimpressive. Even if the environment does improve, it could take a long time for the disturbance to take advantage of favorable conditions. Colin was never able to take advantage of favorable conditions and now he's gone.

I don't remember Colin ever having favorable conditions to work with. I could definitely see this turning into a hurricane when it gets in between two upper level troughs allowing ridging to balloon atop it. However, a major hurricane is unlikely considering the marginal TCHP.

[Aquawind]

Deep convection firing over the center now! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

[cycloneye]

Agreed Paul. If the current trend continues,I will not be surprised to NHC classify it as TD at 11 PM or 5 AM.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

The moment of truth will be at 8PM EDT. If both TAFB and SAB satellite agencies give 93L a T-number of 1.5 93L should be upgraded to a 30mph TD.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Getting ever so close to a tropical depression...just a slight increase of convection would result into 05L.

[RL3AO]

Gut feeling says it probably has TS force winds.

[cycloneye]

Gut feeling says it probably has TS force winds.

If there were a ship around that area would be great.

[KWT]

Should really be upgraded given the last Vis imagery...certainly would already be a TD in the Gulf.

Still not totally convinced its got a strong future, but FWIW I see no real reason either why it won't be our next storm.

[Cryomaniac]

Gut feeling says it probably has TS force winds.

Even if it does, it would have to look a lot better to get an upgrade straight to TS, because of the lack of recon.

[HurrMark]

Well, I guess I was mistaken earlier...this is looking pretty decent, and probably should be at TD now. I would think it will become Danielle, but I still don't think it will become more than a tropical storm. Shouldn't pass 55W...very far from Bermuda.