EPAC: Ex ESTELLE

[supercane]

Latest MW pass looks unchanged:

[supercane]

T number down to 3.0 from 3.5 per SSD:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
08/0600 UTC 17.8N 110.3W T3.0/3.5 ESTELLE
08/0000 UTC 17.3N 109.0W T3.5/3.5 ESTELLE

[supercane]

987
WHXX01 KMIA 080649
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0649 UTC SUN AUG 8 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ESTELLE (EP072010) 20100808 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100808 0600 100808 1800 100809 0600 100809 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 110.0W 18.1N 111.0W 18.4N 112.3W 18.7N 113.9W
BAMD 17.7N 110.0W 19.1N 111.4W 20.5N 113.1W 22.2N 115.0W
BAMM 17.7N 110.0W 18.7N 111.3W 19.6N 113.0W 20.7N 115.2W
LBAR 17.7N 110.0W 18.8N 111.4W 20.5N 113.2W 22.1N 115.0W
SHIP 55KTS 54KTS 50KTS 45KTS
DSHP 55KTS 54KTS 50KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100810 0600 100811 0600 100812 0600 100813 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.1N 115.8W 19.8N 119.0W 20.2N 121.9W 20.5N 125.4W
BAMD 24.3N 116.5W 30.4N 116.1W 36.8N 111.3W 38.7N 104.6W
BAMM 22.0N 117.3W 25.6N 120.4W 30.8N 120.4W 36.5N 117.4W
LBAR 24.7N 116.4W 32.3N 115.7W 39.8N 109.4W 38.8N 101.9W
SHIP 38KTS 24KTS 15KTS 0KTS
DSHP 38KTS 24KTS 15KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.7N LONCUR = 110.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 17.1N LONM12 = 108.3W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.8N LONM24 = 106.4W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
NNNN

[supercane]

6Z best track update from ATCF keeps it at 55kt:

EP, 07, 2010080806, , BEST, 0, 177N, 1100W, 55, 994, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 60, 50, 60, 1008, 130, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ESTELLE, M,
EP, 07, 2010080800, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1091W, 55, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 20, 20, 1008, 130, 25, 65, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ESTELLE, S, 12, NEQ, 90, 45, 30, 60

[supercane]

Map made in UW-CIMSS with sat, obs, shear, forecast tracks:

[brunota2003]

Looks like she has peaked.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 08 2010

CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING TO -82C AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF THE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST. THE CENTER HAS BEEN POSITIONED JUST NORTH
OF THE COLDEST OVERSHOOTING TOPS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A 0248Z
TRMM OVERPASS THAT REVEALED A COMPACT CYCLONE POSSESSING A
SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE-LIKE FEATURE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T3.5/55 KT. ALTHOUGH BRIEF BURSTS OF
CONVECTION IN SUCH SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN RESULT IN A QUICK
SPIN-UP OF THE WIND FIELD...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 55 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09...SLIGHTLY FASTER AND NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS POSITION AND TRACK BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES. THERE IS
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OR RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT ONLY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THE
WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ESTELLE SHOULD KEEP THE
CYCLONE MOVING ON A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND
THAT TIME THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS AND
TURN SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW...AND COULD BE CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
MONSOONAL FLOW BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND ESTELLE COULD STILL REACH 60 KT INTENSITY. BY 24 HOURS...A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 17.8N 110.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 17.9N 111.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 18.0N 112.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 09/1800Z 18.0N 113.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 18.0N 114.2W 40 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 17.9N 115.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 17.2N 115.2W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 13/0600Z 16.4N 114.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Kingarabian]

Its now looking sheared from the east.. They probably will bring it down to 44 kts if it doesn't gets act together.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 08 2010

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF
ESTELLE HAS BECOME DETACHED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ITS DECAYING
MID-LEVEL CENTER. CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN DECREASING AND IS ONLY
PRESENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL WINDS ARE LOWERED
TO 40 KT... CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND ESTELLE MOVING
INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THUS...THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS DECREASED AND REMNANT LOW STATUS IS LIKELY BY
36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

A 12-HR MOTION IS ABOUT 275/4. THIS SLOW WESTWARD MOTION WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY UNTIL ESTELLE BECOMES A
REMNANT LOW. THEREAFTER THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT
LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD...AND THEN EASTWARD AS IT GETS DRAWN INTO A
LARGER ITCZ CIRCULATION TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 17.9N 111.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 18.0N 111.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 17.9N 113.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 17.8N 113.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 10/1800Z 17.6N 114.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 11/1800Z 17.2N 114.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 12/1800Z 16.7N 114.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 13/1800Z 16.5N 113.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[KWT]

Yeah this one is starting to look a little on the sheared side of things to be fair, but we will see what happens with this one in the next 24hrs, probably will weaken from now on out.

[Epsilon_Fan]

Boom! The shear just blew the top off this thing

[KWT]

Just had another look at the Vis loop and wow yeah the convection is just being torn off Estelle at a very quick rate, now that really is high shear hitting there!

[Aquawind]

Nice refire of deep just before skinny dipping.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/flash-vis.html

[KWT]

Ah yeah re-firing just in time to prevent the whole circulation from becoming naked. Will probably now go into a plusing/waning phase from now on.

[supercane]

T numbers slightly up from SSD:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
09/0000 UTC 17.7N 111.4W T2.5/3.0 ESTELLE
08/1800 UTC 17.8N 110.9W T2.0/3.0 ESTELLE

[KWT]

Makes sense given the large convective burst that occured between that time...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 08 2010

SPORADIC BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF
ESTELLE. BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB...THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT. AS ESTELLE CONTINUES
WESTWARD...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
INCREASED STABILITY AND STRONGER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CALLS FOR ESTELLE TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36
HOURS...WITH THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE SHOWING AN
EVEN MORE RAPID RATE OF WEAKENING.

THE 12-HR MOTION IS 270/4 AND A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE BEGINS TO
FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE
EAST AND LOW-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 17.8N 111.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 17.9N 112.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 17.7N 114.1W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 11/0000Z 17.5N 114.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 114.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 13/0000Z 16.5N 113.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[supercane]

T numbers back down to 2.0 per SSD:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
09/0600 UTC 17.6N 111.7W T2.0/2.5 ESTELLE
09/0000 UTC 17.7N 111.4W T2.5/3.0 ESTELLE
08/1800 UTC 17.8N 110.9W T2.0/3.0 ESTELLE

[KWT]

Well looks like Estelle is on the way out then, probably will go down to a TD pretty soon.