WPAC: INVEST 99W - Discussion

[supercane]

Link at NRL

Unsure where this is given no imagery up yet. Maybe SW of Guam?

[Infdidoll]

I think you're right.



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=WP992010

[Typhoon10]

NRL still showing 05W DIANMU, 99W and still 96W! Any reason why?

[StormingB81]

Invest 99 is South of Yap.

[Infdidoll]

NRL still showing 05W DIANMU, 99W and still 96W! Any reason why?

I'm still at a loss as to why 96W is showing up...I thought 96W was the invest that formed into Dianmu?...Your guess is as good as mine on that one. 99W was down near Yap and wasn't looking so hot last time I checked. I think there is a 90W up northeast of Agriham (or northwest of Wake Island)...and here I thought it was just typical convection behind a TUTT cell, but they're calling it an invest on the NRL site.

I think last typhoon season spoiled me. Exciting, well-organized storms to watch. I've failed to be impressed with this season from a stormwatcher's perspective. From a humanitarian perspective - Hey, at least there isn't any destruction, loss of life, etc.

[Infdidoll]

Another thought, what happened to all the people who used to discuss and forecast? I haven't seen some familiar faces around much from last season...like ozonepete? I miss the opinions, forecasts, and conversation! I hope everyone is well.

[StormingB81]

I blame it on the slow season..remmeber last year it seemed like we were pumping out 2 a week...

[Infdidoll]

I blame it on the slow season..remmeber last year it seemed like we were pumping out 2 a week...

No kidding! Well, I remember we were still unpacking right around this time, last year...and there were some pretty big storms in September and October. I just hope some of the really experienced forecasters and professional mets come back! I learned so much from them last year.

[StormingB81]

oh yea..but it seems liek we are bout to pick it up

[Typhoon10]

I agree with you two, even DIANMU, was expecting it to go inbetween Taiwan and Phillipines, instead it heads up towards Korea. It just shows to us amateurs how different each system can be depending on the conditions

[StormingB81]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/


Right where the 2 invest's are there is a good chance for them tp fprm according to NRL

[dexterlabio]

The convection over the region as of this time is poor. Seeing the latest shear tendency chart, I think it will take a hard time organizing once it tracks to an area of relatively high wind shear (west and northwest of its current position). http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=sht&zoom=&time= I think this is the one having burst of deep convection last night, but it dies out after some time and after a few hours, the convection comes back again.

[KWT]

There is some shear though it isn't too outlandish, probably about 20kts, which is enough at least make for a hard time in terms of development.

[Typhoon10]

There is some shear though it isn't too outlandish, probably about 20kts, which is enough at least make for a hard time in terms of development.

KWT, whats your prognosis for WPAC over the next week or so? Think we will have any systems, are conditions good for them to enter South China Sea?

[supercane]

No more 99W on NRL's site.