Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080000
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOR EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY
TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1041 PM AST SAT AUG 7 2010

.UPDATE...PATCHY MOISTURE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE VI...COASTAL WATERS AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXPECTED. CAN SEE
A SLIGHT INCREASING TREND IN PW OVER PAST 12 HOURS...AND LATEST
MODELS INDICATE THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT THE SAME TIME THE MID LEVEL CAP WEAKENS...LIKELY
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM...ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MADE SOME MINOR
INCREASES TO POPS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT NO CHANGES NECESSARY TO
EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS NO MAJOR WEATHER FEATURES FORESEEN
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED USVI AND ERN PR. AFT 08/16Z...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 08/17Z
AND 08/22Z. LLVL WINDS ENE WIND 10 TO 15 KTS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST SUN AUG 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY. A TUTT (LOW) WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION
NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ELONGATED TUTT AXIS THEN ALIGNING NORTHWEST
OF THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND REMAINING THERE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL PERTURBATION...WEAKENING CAP AND LOCAL EFFECTS THIS
AFTERNOON...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...A LOW TO MID
LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING TUTT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND THIS WILL
INDUCE A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE INTO/ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
MOISTURE AND MAINLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
LOCALLY...WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT
DRYING IS INDICATED...BEFORE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO/ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND
PROBABLY LINGERS FOR THURSDAY...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE TUTT AXIS DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 08/17Z AND
08/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
OFF SHORE WATERS TODAY.

[msbee]

Good Morning
Interesting tropical discussion from CROWNWEATHER this morning:

Issued: Sunday, August 8, 2010 820 am EDT/720 am CDT

For the Tropical Weather Discussion with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325.

Discussion
Before I begin this morning's tropical weather discussion, I wanted to inform all of you about a slight change in the overall format of these discussions. Starting today, I will be "triaging" tropical systems based on their potential threat to life and property. The reason for this is because I think the Atlantic is about to go "boom" and we will likely be tracking multiple systems at once very soon. So, like I said, starting this morning I will basically be writing about the systems that pose a potential threat down the road and "ignoring" the systems that are likely to track out into the open Atlantic. This method will basically allow me to really closely analyze and concentrate on the systems that are of potential threat. Thanks for your understanding and continued support! Now onto this morning's discussion:

The Long Range Prospects Look Ominous – The Atlantic Is About To Go Boom:
All of the signals are coming together with both real-time data and model guidance data that the lid is about come off in the Atlantic. The latest MJO chart found HERE shows that the upward motion pulse is now showing up in the Atlantic Basin. Basically, if you don't want tropical storms and hurricanes, then green is bad and brown is good. The green areas are areas that have upward motion in the atmosphere which leads to storm formation. The brown areas are basically the complete opposite and are areas of downward sinking motion which suppresses storm formation.

This morning's long range GFS model is fairly ominous. Not only does it show a train of systems developing by around August 23rd, it also shows a pattern shift that would lead to systems tracking much further west towards the US and Caribbean.

One chart that I look at sometimes is the Roundy Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Chart. It basically forecasts the probability of a tropical cyclone to form in any one given spot out to 30 days in advance. The latest probability chart shows that the chances of tropical cyclone formation increases in the Gulf of Mexico starting on Wednesday and this is likely due to the system forecast to try and develop there this week. It also forecasts a fairly rapid increase in the chances for tropical cyclone formation east of 45 West Longitude starting around August 15th. By the last week of August and the first week of September, the Roundy chart shows much of the Atlantic in an increased chance area for tropical cyclone formation.

So, here is my thinking on this: The Saharan Air Layer is now starting to thin out and rainfall amounts across the African continent have been above average lately. Given this, I suspect that we will likely see an increase of more robust tropical disturbances coming off of the coast of Africa as we head towards mid August. The pattern shift forecast by the long range GFS model is something to really be concerned about, if it verifies. This pattern shift would leave the door open to increased threats of tropical storms and hurricanes to the Caribbean, southeastern United States and the Gulf of Mexico after August 15th to August 20th.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Monday morning.

[Gustywind]

Thanks to keep us informed Barbara, we appreciate . Looks like things could heat during the next couple of days.

[Boriken]

Is about to go boom
but at the moment the tropical wave at 34w Is about to go poof.

[Gustywind]

Is about to go boom
but at the moment the tropical wave at 34w Is about to go poof.

Thanks for this personnal opinion. But don't forget that you can discuss about this twave on this thread :
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108884&hilit=

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 081854 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SUN AUG 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS....A LOW LEVEL TROUGH NOW LOCATED ALONG 63W WILL PASS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. A TUTT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
ELONGATED TUTT AXIS THEN ALIGNING NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN APPROACHING LOW LEVEL TROUGH NOW LOCATED ALONG
13N 63W TO 18N 62W WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VI AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED AFTER 09/00Z.

A MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW WILL INDUCE
A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MOISTURE AND FAIRLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN A MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER PATCH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
TO RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

LOOKING AHEAD...SLIGHT DRYING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEKEND...
HOWEVER AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS STRETCH ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THAT WILL
LAST THROUGH 08/22Z. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AFT
08/22Z...BUT SHOWERS WILL GROW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EAST OF PUERTO
RICO AS A SLOW MOVING TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLAND AERODROMES
TNCM AND TKPK BY 08/23Z...TIST AND TISX BY 09/06Z AND TJSJ BY
09/10Z. LLVL WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO ESE BTWN 09/03Z AND 09/12Z.


&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
OFF SHORE WATERS TODAY.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 082332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN IS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. REGENERATION OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED BUT THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF SAINT
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO LAND ARE EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1041 PM AST SUN AUG 8 2010

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST WHILE ADVECTING AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED BY DOPPLER RADAR OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS...MOVING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. LATEST GFS
MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
WITH A MARKED WIND SHIFT AT 850/700 BY 12Z MORNING. FORECASTS FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS AND GREATER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS. TUTT LOW
NEAR 23N 57W WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE USVI AND
EAST PR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TUTT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO FAVOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 22Z
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST LOCAL TAF SITES...OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND AT TIMES
IFR SHOULD OCCUR WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. LLVL WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM ENE TO ESE BTWN 09/06Z AND 09/12Z.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A wet day here as a surface trough moves thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST MON AUG 9 2010


.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE REGION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AS AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS BEEN
SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS CAN BE
SEEN RAPIDLY TRACKING WESTWARD IN LATEST WV IMAGERY...AND IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN A
FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AFTER THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH PASSES WEST OF OF PUERTO RICO LATER
TODAY...EXPECT AN EAST TO EAST SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST WIND FLOW TO
STEER BANDS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE NEARING 50 WEST THIS MORNING HAS BEEN GIVEN A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL TRACK WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...APPROACHING LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE EAST WILL INCREASE
THE CLOUDINESS AND THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
TODAY. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TKPK...
TNCM...TIST AND TISX...REACHING TJSJ AFT 09/10Z. MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 09/17Z AND 09/22Z.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Rain showers here with isolated lightnings, thunder is rumbling too.

[msbee]

wet here too

[Gustywind]

wet here too

Ok thanks for this info Barbara.

[Boriken]

Lots of rain and lighting for my home town Aguada PR.

Not unusual for my region. Can somebody explain to me why in my region of Mayaguez almost every single afternoon of May throughout November we got to deal with rain?

[cycloneye]

Lots of rain and lighting for my home town Aguada PR.

Not unusual for my region. Can somebody explain to me why in my region of Mayaguez almost every single afternoon of May throughout November we got to deal with rain?

It has to do with the orographics of that area and as the winds almost all the time are from the east or ESE or ENE,the opposite side of the island gets the afternoon diurnal heating rains more than in other parts of PR.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST MON AUG 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT LOW ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN AND
VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA FROM COLOMBIA
TO A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS IN THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A SERIES OF WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING MOISTURE IN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. A BREAK LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
BANDS OF MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE WEEK. THE FOLLOWING WEEK
SHOULD BE DRIER.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN MODELS PRESENT A DIVERSE SET OF
VIEWPOINTS. THE NAM...WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING POORLY FOR SEVERAL
WEEKS NOW...DEVELOPS A CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS THAT BRINGS THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
WITH BANDS OF WINDS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE
HAD TO DROP THE USE OF THIS MODELS SOLUTION ENTIRELY FOR THIS WET
SEASON. THE GFS BROUGHT AN APPROPRIATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN
TODAY BUT AT 850 MB TOOK RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN BELOW 80 PERCENT
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF KEEPS MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LAYERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A BREAK LATE THURSDAY.
MOISTURE RETURNS ON SATURDAY. CURRENTLY MOISTURE AND SATELLITE
DEPICTIONS SEEM TO INDICATE A GENERALLY WET WEEK WITH BREAKS IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS BETWEEN TROUGHS AND SO HAVE TENDED TOWARD
THE ECMWF WITH ONE EXCEPTION. DID TAPER RAIN OFF IN THE FORECAST LATER IN
THE WEEK IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW...BUT EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...NOT CONTINUOUS...BUT NEVERTHELESS ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOILS WET THROUGH SATURDAY. RAISED POPS ON SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART. ALTHOUGH URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN LOCAL AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY...GENERAL AND WIDESPREAD RAIN OR FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWED AN ARC OF MOISTURE OVER THE TOP
OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH PUERTO RICO THAT COULD EASILY KEEP US
UNDER HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE ALSO KEEPING SMALL LOWS OR TROUGHS IN THE
FORECAST UPSTREAM...BUT DO NOT DEVELOP THEM AND NONE OF THE CANDIDATES FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS AT THIS TIME CROSS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA IN
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THIS SEEM REASONABLE AS THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHS KEEP THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY WELL CHURNED
DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND HENCE NONE TOO FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ WILL LAST THROUGH 09/22Z.
BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS TKPK/TNCM
AND TIST/TISX THROUGH 10/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS PEAKED AT 7 FEET NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT BUOY
41043 THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE 5 TO LESS THAN 7 FOOT
RANGE. SEAS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LOWER IN THE CARIBBEAN. AT THIS
TIME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.