ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 94, 2010080912, , BEST, 0, 262N, 823W, 20, 1012, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Low Center is now on the left side of Florida Penninsula just SW of FT Myers.

[srainhoutx]

Mighty significant shift in the Best Track. Hmmm...

[HURAKAN]

best track

[tailgater]

I saw a little hint of rotation last nite, south of Miami and on this morning on radar you can make out a broad turning over S fla. and adjacent waters.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[vbhoutex]

I saw a little hint of rotation last nite, south of Miami and on this morning on radar you can make out a broad turning over S fla. and adjacent waters.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

Definitely a broad low starting to show in the radar. I wasn't seeing that yesterday. Once it can move out over the GOM it could get a little more interesting as the conditions for development improve and it pulls away from land interference.
I'm probably missing something or not awake enough to read the radar right, but it looks to me like the broad center is much further South than Best track.????

[HouTXmetro]

I saw a little hint of rotation last nite, south of Miami and on this morning on radar you can make out a broad turning over S fla. and adjacent waters.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

Definitely a broad low starting to show in the radar. I wasn't seeing that yesterday. Once it can move out over the GOM it could get a little more interesting as the conditions for development improve and it pulls away from land interference.
I'm probably missing something or not awake enough to read the radar right, but it looks to me like the broad center is much further South than Best track.????

Per the NHC discussion I think you are right. The broad low is over south Florida and adjacent waters.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Stormcenter]

Interesting loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[ronjon]

I dunno about the best track - pretty amorphous right now. I see a cc twist east of Ft Laud this morning and the ULL just east of the northern Bahamas. They probably picked this location because it had the lowest pressure this morning at 29.88 at Ft Myers - although pressure is low across all of S FL varying from 29.88 to 29.90 - having dropped about 2 mb since this time yesterday at all stations.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20100716&endTime=-1&duration=3

[StormClouds63]

Somewhat similar scenario:

Babe (1977) formed just off the Louisiana coast ... brought some beneficial rains and squally weather ... but that's about it.

[tailgater]

I'm using this radar site but I unchecked every box except radar and sped it up. Best I can tell MAYbe something right over the Keys.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[DTWright]

Somewhat similar scenario:

Babe (1977) formed just off the Louisiana coast ... brought some beneficial rains and squally weather ... but that's about it.

Babe did I believe become a minimal hurricane before landfall, but weakend quickly afterwards.

[cycloneye]

Somewhat similar scenario:

Babe (1977) formed just off the Louisiana coast ... brought some beneficial rains and squally weather ... but that's about it.

Babe did I believe become a minimal hurricane before landfall, but weakend quickly afterwards.

And here is Babe. Was a briefly a minimal hurricane.

[Stormcenter]

This is a good loop to watch all day to see how
94L progresses.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[tolakram]

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Is it over the gulf now?

Answering my own question.

More frames: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

Speed this up. It appears the circulation, broad as it is, is just off the west coast of Florida, near Sanibel. Sanibel reporting ESE winds

[Stormcenter]

Yes it is.

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Is it over the gulf now?

[Sanibel]

Finally some decent rain overnight. Over 3 inches in the bucket. The Low passed right overhead. Sunny now with light breezes. Just like Bonnie you can hardly tell there's a tropical system involved with this.






.

[DTWright]

Aren't conditions in the gulf supposed to become somewhat favorable in the next day or two?

[ronjon]

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Is it over the gulf now?

Answering my own question.

More frames: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

Speed this up. It appears the circulation, broad as it is, is just off the west coast of Florida, near Sanibel. Sanibel reporting ESE winds

Yeah I see the elongated east-west circulation now just SW of Ft Myers near Sanibel.

[ronjon]

If the broad low SW of Ft Myers becomes the dominant one then it looks like the ciruclation will have more time over the GOM for development. Most of the models were pointing to the low developing further north off of Tampa Bay or the NE GOM.