WPAC: Ex DIANMU

[StormingB81]

Well this is the hardest Ive seen the rain come down all day...its really comming down!

[KWT]

Still a rather odd looking system, far from a classic with convective bands trying to work thier way round a big LLC.

[StormingB81]

its been raining so hard with the last 2 rain bands my cable keeps going in and out...

[KWT]

Do you have any idea how much rain you've had from this system, its certainly a big system in terms of coverage so the eastern side will be very wet!

[StormingB81]

I would guess about an inch...but this has been the hardest its rained all day contantly so prolly we will be about 2 inches or so is my guess

[KWT]

A reasonable amount of rain given its a large TS that is fairly lopsided.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Naha reported about 33mm of rain so far today so an inch sounds about right. You can see obs from different airports here:

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/kuko/

[StormingB81]

This is the most rain we have had at one time and looking at the radar we have more comming...funny how after the storm is passing us it is hitting us with the back side the worse....winds are about 25 mph gusting near 40

[KWT]

Do you have a link to that radar by any chance?

[StormingB81]

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/index.html?areaCode=217

there u go

[StormingB81]

COntradicting my last post about this storm..lol and prrof you never know what these things are going to do..but it starting to look pretty good...i mean the best it has ever looked.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

Also, can I just say that the "discussion" bit in the topic title is not needed. For non-ATL storms, everything including advisories and models go into a single thread so the identifier is unnecessary.

Mods, can we please take this request into account?

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (DIANMU) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 28.6N 125.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.6N 125.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 31.1N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 33.1N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 35.0N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 36.6N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 39.3N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 29.2N 125.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (DIANMU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 091500Z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (DIANMU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS AND HAS INTENSIFIED BY 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091056Z
SSMIS SHOW FURTHER WRAPPING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ALSO, AN
EARLIER 090439Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A BANDING LOW LEVEL
MICROWAVE EYE, INDICATING CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION. THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON THE
091056Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF 45 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED NORTHWEST OF THE
LLCC OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED. HOWEVER,
INTENSITIES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN EXPECTED DUE TO AN IMPROVED
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND AS A RESULT, THIS FORECAST REFLECTS AN
INCREASE OF THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY OVER THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING.
B. TS 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE
EAST OF JAPAN AND TS DIANMU WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH
TAU 24. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS DUE TO THE IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. BY TAU 36, TS
DIANMU WILL REACH SOUTH KOREA AND BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING BAROCLINC ZONE CURRENTLY OVER CHINA.
C. BY TAU 72, TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FULLY INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM
FARTHER NORTH BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS FORECASTS.//
NNNN

[supercane]

JTWC forecast track:

[supercane]

JMA Forecast Track:

WTPQ50 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1004 DIANMU (1004)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 28.8N 125.2E FAIR
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 101200UTC 33.0N 125.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 111200UTC 35.3N 128.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 121200UTC 39.2N 135.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 131200UTC 45.1N 145.7E 425NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
120HF 141200UTC 49.0N 153.5E 500NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT =



KMA forecast track:

WTKO20 RKSL 091300
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6
NAME STS 1004 DIANMU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 091300UTC 28.8N 125.2E
MOVEMENT NNW 13KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 100100UTC 31.4N 125.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 101300UTC 33.7N 125.7E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 110100UTC 34.9N 127.1E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 111300UTC 35.8N 128.4E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 995HPA 39KT
60HR
POSITION 120100UTC 37.6N 131.3E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 995HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.



And China's official (note 30 m/s= 58.3 kt):

WTPQ20 BABJ 091500 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS DIANMU 1004 (1004) INITIAL TIME 091500 UTC
00HR 29.0N 125.2E 980HPA 30M/S
30KTS 200KM
50KTS 50KM
P12HR N 20KM/H
P+24HR 33.6N 125.1E 980HPA 30M/S
P+48HR 36.4N 129.8E 985HPA 25M/S
P+72HR 39.4N 137.6E 990HPA 23M/S
P+96HR 41.6N 145.9E 1000HPA 12M/S=

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

09/1432 UTC 29.1N 125.3E T4.0/4.0 DIANMU -- West Pacific

65 knots

[supercane]

Quite a rise in T numbers over the past 12 hrs reflecting improved organization, but despite the T number of 4.0 don't think this is a typhoon. Data from SSD

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
09/1432 UTC 29.1N 125.3E T4.0/4.0 DIANMU
09/0832 UTC 28.0N 125.4E T3.0/3.0 DIANMU
09/0232 UTC 26.2N 125.5E T2.5/2.5 DIANMU

TXPN25 KNES 091515
SIMWIR

A. 05W (DIANMU)
B. 09/1432Z
C. 29.1N
D. 125.3E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...BANDING CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED FULLY AROUND LARGE RAGGED
EYE...BANDING WOULD BE OVER 1.0 ON LOG10 SO USED IN TANDEM WITH EYE
METHOD (EMBEDDED IN MG, WMG WITH MG RING, AND RAGGED EYE) YIELDING DT
OF 4.0. MET IS 3.5. PT IS 4.0. INTENSITY IS LIKELY IN THE 3.5-4.0 RANGE
ATTM THOUGH INCREASING HENCE FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
09/1056Z 28.4N 125.5E SSMIS


...GALLINA

Edit to note simultaneous posting.

[supercane]

ASCAT missed Dianmu, with swath to the east: