Global model runs discussion

[KWT]

The CFS isn't bad for pressure trends, BUT it suffers the exact same problems as the GFS, overdigging troughs in the longer range, esp in the lower resolution period. Therefore it is probably safe to assume the CFS is too keen with the W.Atlantic troughing...thats why its sucked this summer in the eastern states when it kept calling for a below normal summer, its only recently that finally things have shifted but the models suggest things will change...

Thats not to say there won't be a weakness near 60W, quite possibly will be BUT it won't scoop them all up thats for sure!

[hurricaneCW]

I still believe this will be a quieter than expected year. Maybe a year of the tropical storms? A weakness in the Atlantic is likely to prevail for the next 2 weeks or so. The TUTT shall also hold firm. We'll probably get a few systems like 93L develop, but not become too much because of how north it is and because they will plow right into the TUTT. I don't think we'll see any majors until September.

Plus, the recent downtrend in global activity may have some bearing on the Atlantic tropical activity. It's highly unusual to see such an inactive Western Pacific and a very quiet eastern pacific July. If global warming is responsible for greater shear and less tropical activity, then maybe the theory is correct after all.

[KWT]

I think rather the GW....its the sun and the realtive weakness its been displaying over a long time..interesting that global activity wen down just at the same time we entered a long solar min eh...

Anyway I'm seeing some rather interesting signs from the models from 10 days onwards and I see nothing to change that, there is the weakness you mention HCW but once again, certainly more then a few hints of a strengthening of the upper high again in the W.atlantic, probably won't totally rid us of that weakness BUT it'll be weaker and thus perhaps lead to a much heightened risk of a SE/E coast threat IMO once this occurs towards the back end of August.

[blp]

00Z says hello GOM!!! Three systems on the map just like the 12Z run only that this run is way more aggressive with the area in the western caribbean. So far the GFS has been showing for many days now a pattern change in two weeks that will favor the true ramp up in activity just in time for a favorable MJO.

[somethingfunny]

Valid August 25.

Ugh..... can we just stick to posting the medium-range model runs for a while? The long-range models have busted so badly with Colin that I'll assume the boy is just crying wolf until my sheep get eaten.

[KWT]

Oh but there is a difference between just one storm like Colin and a wholesale pattern change that the models are picking up...

The models still showing a real ramp-up between the 20-30th and I'd suspect that continues into September.

[hurricaneCW]

Notice how we're gradually moving down the date of the "expected ramp up" of tropical activity. First it was the 1st week of August, then around August 15, then August 20th, and now were pushing it into late August or August 25-30.

A few things can happen until then though. It does look that 93L will at the very least become a tropical depression. It's possible that 94L becomes a tropical storm in a few days. Again, we probably won't see anything stronger than Bonnie/Connie even if they do form. So, if we get TS Danielle and Earl in the next 7-10 days, we'll be up in the number of TS column, but we'll still be way down in the Hurricane and ACE column.

I don't consider a season active if we get 10-15 weak, sheared TS (40-50 mph), which more than half curve way out to sea. I'm still waiting for a real storm, a storm of at least Hurricane Alex's caliber. Doesn't look like we'll be seeing anything like that in the next 1-2 weeks.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

00Z says hello GOM!!! Three systems on the map just like the 12Z run only that this run is way more aggressive with the area in the western caribbean. So far the GFS has been showing for many days now a pattern change in two weeks that will favor the true ramp up in activity just in time for a favorable MJO.

Brian,

on that run did that storm form there or was that just the last frame of the loop? Did it come up fro the south or in from the south east.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

00Z says hello GOM!!! Three systems on the map just like the 12Z run only that this run is way more aggressive with the area in the western caribbean. So far the GFS has been showing for many days now a pattern change in two weeks that will favor the true ramp up in activity just in time for a favorable MJO.

Brian,

on that run did that storm form there or was that just the last frame of the loop? Did it come up fro the south or in from the south east.

[NOLA2010]

00Z says hello GOM!!! Three systems on the map just like the 12Z run only that this run is way more aggressive with the area in the western caribbean. So far the GFS has been showing for many days now a pattern change in two weeks that will favor the true ramp up in activity just in time for a favorable MJO.

Brian,

on that run did that storm form there or was that just the last frame of the loop? Did it come up fro the south or in from the south east.

It came from the Caribbean

[PTrackerLA]

Nothing really of interest in the latest 12z GFS expect a storm near the Yucatan at day 16 and another off the coast of Africa. I thought back in July things would really be cooking by August 15th but looks like that's getting pushed back at least 1-2 weeks. NO complaints here I'm hoping for an early Fall the heat is really getting to me this summer!

[KWT]

The 12z GFS yet *again* creates a very active picture between the 20-25th...thats many runs the GFS has shown that exact same picture...

When it picks up a trend like that, it tends to come off at least to some extent, only one run in the last 12 have not shown this ramp up and even that developed one system between the 20-25th...all others have had at least 2-3 in that period.

3 systems by 300hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_300m.gif

One home brew, one Caribbean developer and a CV system.

[StormClouds63]

Notice how we're gradually moving down the date of the "expected ramp up" of tropical activity. First it was the 1st week of August, then around August 15, then August 20th, and now were pushing it into late August or August 25-30.

A few things can happen until then though. It does look that 93L will at the very least become a tropical depression. It's possible that 94L becomes a tropical storm in a few days. Again, we probably won't see anything stronger than Bonnie/Connie even if they do form. So, if we get TS Danielle and Earl in the next 7-10 days, we'll be up in the number of TS column, but we'll still be way down in the Hurricane and ACE column.

I don't consider a season active if we get 10-15 weak, sheared TS (40-50 mph), which more than half curve way out to sea. I'm still waiting for a real storm, a storm of at least Hurricane Alex's caliber. Doesn't look like we'll be seeing anything like that in the next 1-2 weeks.

Good post ... switch is still stuck in "off." Expect many to start "pushing back the date" when the "real" activity starts. Waters are warm and ready to go, but the upper air environment remains generally unfavorable for any significant development. Waters can be 90 degrees, but nothing of significance will develop if conditions remain the same as they are now. By Wednesday, we will be 1/3 of the way through August with maybe Danielle or a TD out in the central Atlantic to soon join Colin.

[Ivanhater]

Notice how we're gradually moving down the date of the "expected ramp up" of tropical activity. First it was the 1st week of August, then around August 15, then August 20th, and now were pushing it into late August or August 25-30.

A few things can happen until then though. It does look that 93L will at the very least become a tropical depression. It's possible that 94L becomes a tropical storm in a few days. Again, we probably won't see anything stronger than Bonnie/Connie even if they do form. So, if we get TS Danielle and Earl in the next 7-10 days, we'll be up in the number of TS column, but we'll still be way down in the Hurricane and ACE column.

I don't consider a season active if we get 10-15 weak, sheared TS (40-50 mph), which more than half curve way out to sea. I'm still waiting for a real storm, a storm of at least Hurricane Alex's caliber. Doesn't look like we'll be seeing anything like that in the next 1-2 weeks.

Good post ... switch is still stuck in "off." Expect many to start "pushing back the date" when the "real" activity starts. Waters are warm and ready to go, but the upper air environment remains generally unfavorable for any significant development. Waters can be 90 degrees, but nothing of significance will develop if conditions remain the same as they are now. By Wednesday, we will be 1/3 of the way through August with maybe Danielle or a TD out in the central Atlantic to soon join Colin.

Seems to me there is a lot to track right now. You would think with all the posts saying how inactive it has been and nothing much to see that those very same posters would not keep coming back to a tropical weather board every day.

[CourierPR]

I think there is ample model evidence that things will get going shortly and I am growing weary of the naycasters.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Bell Curve.... Read up on it for the non-believers. Look where we are right now on the curve. Most know. But there are those who know little about the tropics. Hope for a dead season. But I'm preparing for a busy one.

[dwsqos2]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

Look at that big trough.

[Texas Snowman]

Bell Curve.... Read up on it for the non-believers. Look where we are right now on the curve. Most know. But there are those who know little about the tropics. Hope for a dead season. But I'm preparing for a busy one.

One storm.

One epic storm.

In the wrong place at the wrong time.

Will/could/would transform all perceptions about the 2010 season.

Was 1992 a bad hurricane year? Ask those who lived in Homestead, Fla. Was 1979 a bad hurricane year? Ask those who lived in Mobile, Ala. Was 2005 a bad hurricane year? Yes, but especially for those who lived in Louisiana and southern Florida. Was 2008 a bad hurricane year? Ask Galveston, Texas and points east.

My point is at the end of 2010's season, numbers, schmumbers. Whether this is a bad hurricane season will depend on who gets impacted and by what.

One epic storm can make this an infamous season whatever the final numbers turn out to be.

[KWT]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/fp0_384.shtml

Look at that big trough.

Its a big ole trough, and its a good and bad thing...good because if it was that strength any system above say 20N at that latitude will fish...

Its bad because anything the Caribbean will be lulled northwards probably through the caribbean islands and into the states, so its twofold.

The GFS is much less agressive on its 0z run but it certainly still hints at a busy period coming up, but less obvious this run for whatever reason.

[lonelymike]

I think there is ample model evidence that things will get going shortly and I am growing weary of the naycasters.

And those who think opposite are growing weary of the doomsdayers. Goes both ways on the board lately.