ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[blazess556]

Offf shore Pasco County, Fla. west coast just north of Tampa:

Conditions at 42021 as of
(7:40 pm EDT)

Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 9.7 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.84 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 85.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 87.8 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

that station is much further north than the actual area of low pressure.

[dixiebreeze]

I know, blazess, that's why I find it interesting. Pressure pretty low all along the Fla. gulf coast.

[blazess556]

I know, blazess, that's why I find it interesting. Pressure pretty low all along the Fla. gulf coast.

oh ok. I was just letting you know. that is interesting. that shows the area of low pressure is very large. the llc on the radar looks like it is tightening.

[vbhoutex]

I just ran a visible loop and unless I am crazy it appears to me there may be a llc tucking in under the northern edge of the convection around 25.5 N, 82.0W. I think that if the shear continues to lessen as forecast this will take off pretty quickly. Not at all sure on intensity, but a TD by sometime tomorrow would not be a surprise at all. I haven't looked at the radar for any confirmation on this.

[dixiebreeze]

We sure don't want to see another Charlie along here

[blazess556]

AL, 94, 2010081000, , BEST, 0, 257N, 827W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Pressure down 1 mb, winds up 5 knots

94l continues to move southwest.

[ConvergenceZone]

HEHE, between Bonnie and this system, It's like the ULL's this year are acting like the Gulf States BodyGuards.....

[Ivanhater]

Most of the models have this hanging around SW Florida for a while..maybe 36 hours before moving toward the central gulf

[SunnyThoughts]

Do you guys think this system has enough time to reach hurricane status, or just a minimal to moderate tropical storm? I know its all conjecture at this point, but I value many of your opinions. My daughter is due to have her baby this week here in P'cola, sure don't look forward to driving to the hospital during a hurricane lol

[blazess556]

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt

[Ivanhater]

Pressure dropping

[supercane]

I've been thinking about the same thing, if anybody here has been watching Dianmu in the WPAC, this thing is nearly a carbon copy of that system, its quite uncanny, tohugh of course the WPAC was far more convective, but all the same features were in place, like a ULL nearby, etc.

Disagree with this; the dynamics are different between Dianmu and 94L. Dianmu formed along a reverse-oriented monsoon trough and has always been tropical and warm core. 94L came about along a washed-out front and has more baroclinic influences in its development, influencing NHC to state the possibility of subtropical development in the TWO. You can refer to the PSU phase diagrams to see this.

[Ivanhater]

SHIPS into Mobile Bay

[Aric Dunn]

Do you guys think this system has enough time to reach hurricane status, or just a minimal to moderate tropical storm? I know its all conjecture at this point, but I value many of your opinions. My daughter is due to have her baby this week here in P'cola, sure don't look forward to driving to the hospital during a hurricane lol

anything is possible and it all depends on how much the upper environment evolves in a more conducive way for the system.. it technically had plenty of time to become a hurricane once it becomes well defined..

[brunota2003]

AL, 94, 2010081000, , BEST, 0, 257N, 827W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Pressure down 1 mb, winds up 5 knots

94l continues to move southwest.

Haha, they read my post from a couple pages back! The one tower that everyone keeps posting links to had 22 knots sustained at 17.7 m (roughly 55 feet), and a pressure of 1011 mb, quite a distance away from where the low level center is forming.

[KWT]

Most of the models have this hanging around SW Florida for a while..maybe 36 hours before moving toward the central gulf

Hmmm the longer over water the better for it, pretty much as simple as that. From the trends we are seeing I'd think we will see some sort of development in the not too distant future, maybe another 24hrs or so but much depends on that ULL and its movement...

Looking like its going to get a good 3-4 days over water now, so its enough time for this to pull some surprises if it decides to pull itself together...

I'm going to do some digging for similar types of systems in this location that move generally NW towards C/W Gulf.

[KWT]

Disagree with this; the dynamics are different between Dianmu and 94L. Dianmu formed along a reverse-oriented monsoon trough and has always been tropical and warm core. 94L came about along a washed-out front and has more baroclinic influences in its development, influencing NHC to state the possibility of subtropical development in the TWO. You can refer to the PSU phase diagrams to see this.

Thats fair enough about the warm core and its true, in fact I said this looks subtropical earlier in the thread...but I wasn't really debating about the warm/cold core aspect of it, the whole thing reminds me alot in terms of general look and possible evolution, with the convection all to the south with a broad LLC to the north of the convection trying to erap it around with a ULL feature nearby as well.

[blazess556]

Certainly looks like the llc is tightening on the radar loop.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... ightning=0

[Dean4Storms]

I just ran a visible loop and unless I am crazy it appears to me there may be a llc tucking in under the northern edge of the convection around 25.5 N, 82.0W. I think that if the shear continues to lessen as forecast this will take off pretty quickly. Not at all sure on intensity, but a TD by sometime tomorrow would not be a surprise at all. I haven't looked at the radar for any confirmation on this.

I agree, you can see a rotation on sat. imagery just under the northern edge of the convection and it looks like on radar that convection is coming together in that same spot.

[MGC]

Everyting will depend on the track and strengh of the ULL. Personally, I hope the ULL holds together and keeps a good bit of shear over the system. If shear does lessen than 94L could take off in a hurry. It looks to me that the shear will stay up and keep a hold on the system. There is a chance of a TC forming but I believe it will remain weak if one does form.......MGC